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Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015

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  • Kenneth B. Medlock
  • Ronald Soligo

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of economic development on the demand for private motor vehicles for a panel of 28 countries. Utilising the concept of the user cost of capital and the notion that the demand for cars can become saturated, the authors develop a model of the relationship between economic development and per capita private car ownership. They find that saturation levels vary across countries, and that user costs are a significant factor in the evolution of vehicle stocks. Forecasts are generated for each of the countries in the sample, and the implications for future energy-related issues are discussed. © The London School of Economics and the University of Bath 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth B. Medlock & Ronald Soligo, 2002. "Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 163-188, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:36:y:2002:i:2:p:163-188
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    Cited by:

    1. Chandra Setiawan, Indra & Indarto, & Deendarlianto,, 2021. "Quantitative analysis of automobile sector in Indonesian automotive roadmap for achieving national oil and CO2 emission reduction targets by 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
    3. Strand, Jon, 2013. "Political economy aspects of fuel subsidies : a conceptual framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6392, The World Bank.
    4. Garth Heutel & Erich Muehlegger, 2015. "Consumer Learning and Hybrid Vehicle Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(1), pages 125-161, September.
    5. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    6. Inghels, Dirk & Dullaert, Wout & Raa, Birger & Walther, Grit, 2016. "Influence of composition, amount and life span of passenger cars on end-of-life vehicles waste in Belgium: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 80-104.
    7. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2010. "Improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors in transportation demand for energy: An application of structural time series analysis to South Korean data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2745-2751.
    8. Deepankar Sinha & Virupaxi Bagodi & Debasri Dey, 2020. "The Supply Chain Disruption Framework Post COVID-19: A System Dynamics Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(4), pages 511-534, November.
    9. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    10. Juan Laborda & María José Moral, 2020. "Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Hernández-Moreno, Adolfo & Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta, 2013. "Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 189-199.
    12. Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Alejandra Terán Orsini, 2020. "Vehicle fleets path and non-linear ownership elasticity for Bolivia, 2000-2035," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2020, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    13. Kemal Çelik & Erkan Oktay & Muhsin Doğan Ebül & Ömer Özhancı, 2015. "Factors influencing consumers’ light commercial vehicle purchase intention in a developing country," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 148-162, September.
    14. Ingrid Majerová, 2017. "Composite Development Index of Visegrad Group Regions," Working Papers 0045, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.

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