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A practical approach to identifying the market potential for high speed rail: A case study in the Sydney-Canberra corridor

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  • Hensher, David A.

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology and selective empirical results from a study of the demand for a high speed rail system serving the Sydney-Canberra corridor currently dominated by air travel for business trips and car travel for non-business trips. We outline the steps involved in the study from problem specification, data needs, development of base year trip tables, model specification and estimation to establish switching behaviour in the presence of a new mode and calculation of induced demand for current travellers. A stated choice heteroskedastic extreme value switching model is used to evaluate the choice of fare type for business and non-business travel given the current mode used in the corridor for each sampled traveller conventional train, charter coach, scheduled coach, plane or car. Starting with the current travel profile, patronage can be predicted under alternative fare regimes, taking into account diverted traffic, induced traffic and growth. Treating fare class as endogenous enhances the real choice context facing potential patrons.

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  • Hensher, David A., 1997. "A practical approach to identifying the market potential for high speed rail: A case study in the Sydney-Canberra corridor," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 431-446, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:31:y:1997:i:6:p:431-446
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    1. Bhat, Chandra R., 1995. "A heteroscedastic extreme value model of intercity travel mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 471-483, December.
    2. C.A. Nash, 1991. "The case for high speed rail," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(2), pages 337-354, May.
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