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Fare evasion in public transport: A time series approach

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  • Troncoso, Rodrigo
  • de Grange, Louis

Abstract

An econometric model is presented that identifies the main variables explaining evasion of fare payment on a public transport system. The model uses a cointegration approach. The model parameters are estimated using data from the Santiago (Chile) bus system, where evasion has been measured at approximately 28%. The main results of the model are that (i) a 10% increase in the fare raises evasion by 2 percentage points and (ii) a 10% increase in inspections lowers evasion by 0.8 percentage points. An increase in unemployment, the third explanatory variable in the model, tends to induce a decrease in evasion, and vice versa. This counterintuitive finding may be explained by the fact that those most vulnerable to job loss, and more likely to evade than the average user due to economic necessity, tend to reduce their use of the bus system when unemployment rises and increase it when unemployment falls.

Suggested Citation

  • Troncoso, Rodrigo & de Grange, Louis, 2017. "Fare evasion in public transport: A time series approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 311-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:311-318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.029
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    3. Allen, Jaime & Muñoz, Juan Carlos & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2019. "On evasion behaviour in public transport: Dissatisfaction or contagion?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 626-651.
    4. Telecký Martin & Čejka Jiří & Guchenko Mykola, 2018. "Determining of Provable Loss in Municipal Bus Transport and Its Influence on Public Budgets in Sparsely Populated Areas of the Czech Republic," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 105-113, May.
    5. Celse, Jérémy & Grolleau, Gilles, 2023. "Fare evasion and information provision: What information should be provided to reduce fare-evasion?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 119-128.
    6. Guzman, Luis A. & Arellana, Julian & Camargo, José Pablo, 2021. "A hybrid discrete choice model to understand the effect of public policy on fare evasion discouragement in Bogotá's Bus Rapid Transit," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 140-153.
    7. Oscar Egu & Patrick Bonnel, 2020. "Can we estimate accurately fare evasion without a survey? Results from a data comparison approach in Lyon using fare collection data, fare inspection data and counting data," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, March.
    8. Elmar Wilhelm M. Fürst & David M. Herold, 2018. "Fare Evasion and Ticket Forgery in Public Transport: Insights from Germany, Austria and Switzerland," Societies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, October.
    9. Brotcorne, L. & Escalona, P. & Fortz, B. & Labbé, M., 2021. "Fare inspection patrols scheduling in transit systems using a Stackelberg game approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Boyd, Colin, 2020. "Revisiting the foundations of fare evasion research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 313-324.
    11. Felipe González & Carolina Busco & Katheryn Codocedo, 2019. "Fare Evasion in Public Transport: Grouping Transantiago Users’ Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Valenzuela-Levi, Nicolás, 2023. "Income inequality and rule-systems within public transport: A study of Medellín (Colombia) and Santiago (Chile)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Zis, Thalis P.V., 2021. "A game theoretic approach on improving sulphur compliance," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 127-137.
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    15. Munizaga, Marcela A. & Gschwender, Antonio & Gallegos, Nestor, 2020. "Fare evasion correction for smartcard-based origin-destination matrices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 307-322.
    16. Louise Sträuli & Wojciech Kębłowski, 2023. "‘The gates of paradise are open’: Contesting and producing publicness in the Brussels metro through fare evasion," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(15), pages 3126-3142, November.
    17. Krembsler, Jonas & Spiegelberg, Sandra & Hasenfelder, Richard & Kämpf, Nicki Lena & Winter, Thomas & Winter, Nicola & Knappe, Robert, 2024. "Fare revenue forecast in public transport: A comparative case study," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
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    20. Benedetto Barabino & Cristian Lai & Alessandro Olivo, 2020. "Fare evasion in public transport systems: a review of the literature," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 27-88, March.

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