IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/teinso/v77y2024ics0160791x24000538.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help

Author

Listed:
  • Undheim, Trond Arne

Abstract

This mixed methods article discusses the role of scenario analysis as a tool to assess the broadest possible specter of positive and negative effects of technologies and social processes within current existential risk assessment and research. To do so, it compares and contrasts case studies of five ongoing, longitudinal scenario planning efforts of global nature– the Shell scenarios, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the CSIS Seven Revolutions Scenarios, The Millennium Project's State of The Future, and the NIC's Global Trends 2040, to derive lessons for whether and how the adjacent existential risk (X-risk) and tech assessment communities can better deploy scenario planning methodology. Observations are derived from interviews with practitioners involved in these efforts as well as an assessment of the publicly available material issued by each project, including the scenarios produced. The emphasis is on the methodologies used, the timelines considered, the forces each identifies as important scenario drivers, and the process of engagement once scenarios are created. Three practices identified include (1) constructing narratives based on strong data, (2) sticking to plausible scenarios (not wild cards), and (3) designing a process of engagement, which each of these does well albeit in different ways. The article concludes with a few brief recommendations for future scenario planning efforts, particularly relevant for x-risk studies that aim to be relevant for tech assessment and governance. Overall, this review shows global scenario efforts aimed at influencing governance would benefit from (a) a more uniformly shared vocabulary, (b) an underlying theory of cascading systemic change, (c) deeper methodological transparency, (d) increased transdisciplinary perspectives, yet (e) maintaining scientific rigor. These improvements would particularly benefit emerging tech-risk derived X-risk scenario efforts where the stakes are the highest they could be, safeguarding humanity's future.

Suggested Citation

  • Undheim, Trond Arne, 2024. "In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:77:y:2024:i:c:s0160791x24000538
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X24000538
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102505?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silfverskiöld, Stefan & Andersson, Kent & Lundmark, Martin, 2021. "Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Ahn, Sang-Jin & Yoon, Ho Young & Lee, Young-Joo, 2021. "Text mining as a tool for real-time technology assessment: Application to the cross-national comparative study on artificial organ technology," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Serrano-Bosquet, Francisco Javier & Carreño Correa, Lina María & Giorgi, Emanuele, 2023. "Review: technological resources for vulnerable communities," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Coeckelbergh, Mark & Sætra, Henrik Skaug, 2023. "Climate change and the political pathways of AI: The technocracy-democracy dilemma in light of artificial intelligence and human agency," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Takacs, Andras, 2023. "The positive effects of green technology investments on growth expectations," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Daim, Tugrul & Yates, Diane & Peng, Yicheng & Jimenez, Bertha, 2009. "Technology assessment for clean energy technologies: The case of the Pacific Northwest," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 232-243.
    7. Luc Soete, 2007. "From Industrial to Innovation Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 273-284, December.
    8. Bruce Tonn & Dorian Stiefel, 2013. "Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1772-1787, October.
    9. Alessandro Fergnani & Mike Jackson, 2019. "Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    10. Peter A. Corning, 2014. "Systems Theory and the Role of Synergy in the Evolution of Living Systems," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 181-196, March.
    11. Spencer, David A., 2023. "Technology and work: Past lessons and future directions," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Al-Emran, Mostafa, 2023. "Beyond technology acceptance: Development and evaluation of technology-environmental, economic, and social sustainability theory," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Szocik, Konrad, 2023. "Why moral bioenhancement in future space missions may not be a good idea: The perspective of feminist bioethics of space exploration," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Wilenius, Markku & Casti, John, 2015. "Seizing the X-events. The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 335-349.
    15. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2022. "The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden's Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    16. Fukuda, Kayano, 2020. "Science, technology and innovation ecosystem transformation toward society 5.0," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    17. Engels, Franziska & Wentland, Alexander & Pfotenhauer, Sebastian M., 2019. "Testing future societies? Developing a framework for test beds and living labs as instruments of innovation governance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    18. Sadowski, Jathan, 2015. "Office of Technology Assessment: History, implementation, and participatory critique," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-20.
    19. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    20. Pansera, Mario & Lloveras, Javier & Durrant, Daniel, 2024. "The infrastructural conditions of (de-)growth: The case of the internet," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    21. Mokthtari Moughari, Mahdieh & Daim, Tugrul U., 2023. "Developing a model of technological innovation for export development in developing countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    22. Scouras, James, 2019. "Nuclear War as a Global Catastrophic Risk," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 274-295, July.
    23. Cedano, Karla G. & Hernández-Granados, Araceli, 2021. "Defining strategies to improve success of technology transfer efforts: An integrated tool for risk assessment," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    24. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    25. wael AL-khatib, Ayman, 2023. "Drivers of generative artificial intelligence to fostering exploitative and exploratory innovation: A TOE framework," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    26. Buckley, Jenifer A. & Thompson, Paul B. & Whyte, Kyle Powys, 2017. "Collingridge's dilemma and the early ethical assessment of emerging technology: The case of nanotechnology enabled biosensors," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 54-63.
    27. Kouladoum, Jean-Claude & Ngouhouo, Ibrahim & Wendji Miamo, Clovis, 2023. "Wellbeing in Africa: The role of technology transfer," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    28. Timothy J. Dixon & Geci Karuri-Sebina & Joe Ravetz & Mark Tewdwr-Jones, 2023. "Re-imagining the future: city-region foresight and visioning in an era of fragmented governance," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 609-616, April.
    29. Liu, Lanjian & Zhang, Tian & Avrin, Anne-Perrine & Wang, Xianwen, 2020. "Is China's industrial policy effective? An empirical study of the new energy vehicles industry," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    30. Iden, Jon & Methlie, Leif B. & Christensen, Gunnar E., 2017. "The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 87-97.
    31. Owen, Richard & Pansera, Mario & Macnaghten, Phil & Randles, Sally, 2021. "Organisational institutionalisation of responsible innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1).
    32. Engels, Franziska & Wentland, Alexander & Pfotenhauer, Sebastian M., 2019. "Testing future societies? Developing a framework for test beds and living labs as instruments of innovation governance," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 48(9), pages 1-11.
    33. Adriana Roseli Wünsch Takahashi & Luis Araujo, 2019. "Case study research: opening up research opportunities," RAUSP Management Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 55(1), pages 100-111, November.
    34. Andersson, Jenny, 2020. "Ghost in a Shell: The Scenario Tool and the World Making of Royal Dutch Shell," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 729-751, December.
    35. Preston, Christopher J. & Wickson, Fern, 2016. "Broadening the lens for the governance of emerging technologies: Care ethics and agricultural biotechnology," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 48-57.
    36. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 393-416, July.
    37. Yan, Ruyu & Xing, Chengju & Chen, Xiaojun & Zhao, Yupan, 2023. "Is it real or illusory? An empirical examination of the impact of open government data on innovation capability in the case of China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    38. Halal, William E., 2013. "Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1635-1643.
    39. Kimmel, Shawn C. & Toohey, Nathan M. & Delborne, Jason A., 2016. "Roadblocks to responsible innovation: Exploring technology assessment and adoption in U.S. public highway construction," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 66-77.
    40. Kejing Chen & Qiaoshuang Meng & Yutao Sun & Qingqing Wan, 2024. "How does industrial policy experimentation influence innovation performance? A case of Made in China 2025," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    41. Kaplan, Leah R. & Farooque, Mahmud & Sarewitz, Daniel & Tomblin, David, 2021. "Designing Participatory Technology Assessments: A Reflexive Method for Advancing the Public Role in Science Policy Decision-making," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    42. Forsberg, Ellen-Marie & Quaglio, GianLuca & O'Kane, Hannah & Karapiperis, Theodoros & Van Woensel, Lieve & Arnaldi, Simone, 2015. "Assessment of science and technologies: Advising for and with responsibility," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 21-27.
    43. Crann, Sara E. & Fairley, Cory & Badulescu, Dan & Mohn, William W. & O'Doherty, Kieran C., 2015. "Soils, microbes, and forest health: A qualitative analysis of social and institutional factors affecting genomic technology adoption," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-9.
    44. Richard J. Arend, 2023. "Big Tech, Competition Policy, and Strategic Management: An Alternative Perspective to Teece," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, November.
    45. Ely, Adrian & Van Zwanenberg, Patrick & Stirling, Andrew, 2014. "Broadening out and opening up technology assessment: Approaches to enhance international development, co-ordination and democratisation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 505-518.
    46. Tekic, Zeljko & Füller, Johann, 2023. "Managing innovation in the era of AI," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    47. González-Martinez, Paulina & García-Pérez-De-Lema, Domingo & Castillo-Vergara, Mauricio & Hansen, Peter Bent, 2023. "Determinants and performance of the quadruple helix model and the mediating role of civil society," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    48. Kang, Inje & Yang, Jiseong & Lee, Wonjae & Seo, Eun-Yeong & Lee, Duk Hee, 2023. "Delineating development trends of nanotechnology in the semiconductor industry: Focusing on the relationship between science and technology by employing structural topic model," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    49. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    50. Ahti Salo & Osmo Kuusi, 2001. "Developments in parliamentary technology assessment in Finland," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 453-464, December.
    51. Çipi, Amali & Fernandes, Ana Cláudia R.D. & Ferreira, Fernando A.F. & Ferreira, Neuza C.M.Q.F. & Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė, Ieva, 2023. "Detecting and developing new business opportunities in society 5.0 contexts: A sociotechnical approach," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    52. Tadeusz Józef Rudek, 2022. "Capturing the invisible. Sociotechnical imaginaries of energy. The critical overview [School of Social Sciences Working Papers Series, vol. 67. Cardiff: Cardiff University]," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 219-245.
    53. Nick Bostrom, 2013. "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(1), pages 15-31, February.
    54. Li, Mengyu & Keyβer, Lorenz & Kikstra, Jarmo S. & Hickel, Jason & Brockway, Paul E. & Dai, Nicolas & Malik, Arunima & Lenzen, Manfred, 2024. "Integrated assessment modelling of degrowth scenarios for Australia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    55. Gianluca Pescaroli & David Alexander, 2018. "Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2245-2257, November.
    56. Genus, Audley & Stirling, Andy, 2018. "Collingridge and the dilemma of control: Towards responsible and accountable innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-69.
    57. Afolabi, Joshua Adeyemi, 2023. "Advancing digital economy in Africa: The role of critical enablers," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    58. Fox, Stephen & Griffy-Brown, Charla, 2023. "Technology perceptions, innovations and effects in society: Technology in Society Briefing," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    59. Kolade, Oluwaseun & Owoseni, Adebowale, 2022. "Employment 5.0: The work of the future and the future of work," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    60. Sand, Martin & Hofbauer, Benjamin P. & Alleblas, Joost, 2023. "Techno-fixing non-compliance - Geoengineering, ideal theory and residual responsibility," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    61. Delvenne, Pierre & Fallon, Catherine & Brunet, Sébastien, 2011. "Parliamentary technology assessment institutions as indications of reflexive modernization," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 36-43.
    62. Daim, Tugrul & Cowan, Kelly, 2010. "Assessing renewable energy portfolio futures with multiple perspectives: The case of the northwest US," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 255-263.
    63. Kuhlmann, Stefan & Stegmaier, Peter & Konrad, Kornelia, 2019. "The tentative governance of emerging science and technology—A conceptual introduction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1091-1097.
    64. Coccia, Mario, 2023. "New Perspectives in Innovation Failure Analysis: A taxonomy of general errors and strategic management for reducing risks," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    65. Fox, Stephen & Griffy-Brown, Charla, 2023. "Technology assessment, evaluation, and forecasting in society: Technology in Society Briefing," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    66. Williams, Robin & Edge, David, 1996. "The social shaping of technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 865-899, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pfotenhauer, Sebastian M. & Wentland, Alexander & Ruge, Luise, 2023. "Understanding regional innovation cultures: Narratives, directionality, and conservative innovation in Bavaria," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(3).
    2. Chris Tennant & Susan Howard & Sally Stares, 2021. "Building the UK vision of a driverless future: A Parliamentary Inquiry case study," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Musango, Josephine Kaviti & Ouma-Mugabe, John, 2024. "A generic technology assessment framework for sustainable energy transitions in African contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Fisher, Erik, 2019. "Governing with ambivalence: The tentative origins of socio-technical integration," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1138-1149.
    5. Bowman, Gary & Parks, Ryan W., 2024. "Between episodes of strategy: Sociomateriality, sensemaking, and dysfunction in a scenario planning process," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    6. Chaudhary, Siddharth & Singh, Rickwinder & Zore, Amit Shamrao & Upadhyay, Apoorva & Lindenberger, Christoph & Vivekanand, Vivekanand, 2024. "Bioinspired technology in society: Ethical and architectural innovations for sustainable development," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Prommer, Lisa & Tiberius, Victor & Kraus, Sascha, 2020. "Exploring the future of startup leadership development," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    8. Yalcin, Haydar & Daim, Tugrul & Moughari, Mahdieh Mokhtari & Mermoud, Alain, 2024. "Supercomputers and quantum computing on the axis of cyber security," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Tachia Chin & Francesco Caputo & Yi Shi & Mario Calabrese & Chiraz Aouina‐Mejri & Armando Papa, 2022. "Depicting the role of cross‐cultural legitimacy for responsible innovation in Asian‐Pacific business models: A dialectical systems view of Yin‐Yang harmony," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 2083-2093, November.
    10. Vassallo, Jarrod P. & Banerjee, Sourindra & Zaman, Hasanuzzaman & Prabhu, Jaideep C., 2023. "Design thinking and public sector innovation: The divergent effects of risk-taking, cognitive empathy and emotional empathy on individual performance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(6).
    11. Gregor Wolbring, 2022. "Auditing the ‘Social’ of Quantum Technologies: A Scoping Review," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    12. Gabel Taggart, 2023. "Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(3), pages 489-499, June.
    13. Mukherjee, Abheek Anjan & Raj, Alok & Aggarwal, Shikha, 2023. "Identification of barriers and their mitigation strategies for industry 5.0 implementation in emerging economies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    14. Hannes Thees & Harald Pechlaner & Natalie Olbrich & Arne Schuhbert, 2020. "The Living Lab as a Tool to Promote Residents’ Participation in Destination Governance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Inés Aquilué & Angélica Caicedo & Joan Moreno & Miquel Estrada & Laia Pagès, 2021. "A Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Living Labs on Urban Design: The Case of the Furnish Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-29, April.
    16. Laura Studen & Victor Tiberius, 2020. "Social Media, Quo Vadis? Prospective Development and Implications," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, August.
    17. Guridi, Jose A. & Pertuze, Julio A. & Pfotenhauer, Sebastian M., 2020. "Natural laboratories as policy instruments for technological learning and institutional capacity building: The case of Chile's astronomy cluster," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(2).
    18. Tatiana Iakovleva & Elin Oftedal & John Bessant, 2021. "Changing Role of Users—Innovating Responsibly in Digital Health," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    19. Pel, Bonno & Haxeltine, Alex & Avelino, Flor & Dumitru, Adina & Kemp, René & Bauler, Tom & Kunze, Iris & Dorland, Jens & Wittmayer, Julia & Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard, 2020. "Towards a theory of transformative social innovation: A relational framework and 12 propositions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(8).
    20. Ran Sun & James Nolan & Suren Kulshreshtha, 2022. "Agent-based modeling of policy induced agri-environmental technology adoption," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-26, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:77:y:2024:i:c:s0160791x24000538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/technology-in-society .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.