IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v167y2021ics0040162521001578.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gamification to avoid cognitive biases: An experiment of gamifying a forecasting course

Author

Listed:
  • Legaki, Nikoletta-Zampeta
  • Karpouzis, Kostas
  • Assimakopoulos, Vassilios
  • Hamari, Juho

Abstract

In their daily lives, people are confronted with situations where they need to form a schema of possible future scenarios and the likelihood of them occurring, be it about climate change, economic up- or downturn, or even the potential success of a romantic date. Be these issues of mundane or universal importance, this judgmental forecasting poses people with a difficult pervasive cognitive challenge. Commonly, judgmental forecasting is taught in forecasting courses syllabi, and the pedagogy surrounding it is challenging. However, gamification and game-based learning have risen as promising tools to simulate different kinds of scenarios and stimulate cognitive problem solving. This study investigates the effects of a gamified application with points, levels, challenges, storytelling and leaderboard for teaching judgmental forecasting by conducting a 2×2 between-subjects experiment (treatments: i) read: yes vs no, and ii) gamification: yes vs no), with a sample of 285 students of a School of Electrical and Computer Engineering and a Business Administration Department. The findings indicate that the gamified application improved learning outcomes regarding the heuristics and biases that affect judgmental forecasting by almost 15%, supporting the use of gamification in forecasting education.

Suggested Citation

  • Legaki, Nikoletta-Zampeta & Karpouzis, Kostas & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Hamari, Juho, 2021. "Gamification to avoid cognitive biases: An experiment of gamifying a forecasting course," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:167:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001578
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120725
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521001578
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120725?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eroglu, Cuneyt & Croxton, Keely L., 2010. "Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 116-133, January.
    2. Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
    3. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    4. Poncin, Ingrid & Garnier, Marion & Ben Mimoun, Mohammed Slim & Leclercq, Thomas, 2017. "Smart technologies and shopping experience: Are gamification interfaces effective? The case of the Smartstore," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 320-331.
    5. Makridakis, Spyros, 1996. "Reply to comments on "Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 555-557, December.
    6. Heinonen, Sirkka & Minkkinen, Matti & Karjalainen, Joni & Inayatullah, Sohail, 2017. "Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 101-113.
    7. Liu, Chuang-Chun, 2016. "Understanding player behavior in online games: The role of gender," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 265-274.
    8. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    9. Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2017. "Bubble Formation and (In)Efficient Markets in Learning‐to‐forecast and optimise Experiments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 581-609, October.
    10. Kai Huotari & Juho Hamari, 2017. "A definition for gamification: anchoring gamification in the service marketing literature," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 27(1), pages 21-31, February.
    11. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    12. Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George & Wright, George, 2015. "Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 44-52.
    13. Duccio Martelli, 2013. "Learning from experience or learning for convenience?," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 244-255, November.
    14. Fotios Petropoulos, 2019. "Judgmental Model Selection," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 54, pages 4-10, Summer.
    15. Mendez-Carbajo, Diego, 2019. "Experiential learning in macroeconomics through FREDcast," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Han, Weiwei & Wang, Xun & Petropoulos, Fotios & Wang, Jing, 2019. "Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-9.
    17. Leslie Gardner, 2008. "Using a Spreadsheet for Active Learning Projects in Operations Management," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 75-88, January.
    18. Makridakis, Spyros, 1996. "Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 513-537, December.
    19. Cox, James Jr. & Loomis, David G., 2006. "Improving forecasting through textbooks -- A 25 year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 617-624.
    20. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
    21. David G. Loomis & James E. Cox, 2000. "A Course in Economic Forecasting: Rationale and Content," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 349-357, December.
    22. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2018. "The M4 Competition: Results, findings, conclusion and way forward," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 802-808.
    23. Richard N. Landers & Elena M. Auer & Andrew B. Collmus & Michael B. Armstrong, 2018. "Gamification Science, Its History and Future: Definitions and a Research Agenda," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 49(3), pages 315-337, June.
    24. Saurabh Bhargava & George Loewenstein, 2015. "Behavioral Economics and Public Policy 102: Beyond Nudging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 396-401, May.
    25. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    26. M. David Albritton & Patrick R. McMullen & Lorraine R. Gardiner, 2003. "OR/MS Content and Visibility in AACSB-Accredited US Business Programs," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 83-89, October.
    27. Hofacker, Charles F. & de Ruyter, Ko & Lurie, Nicholas H. & Manchanda, Puneet & Donaldson, Jeff, 2016. "Gamification and Mobile Marketing Effectiveness," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Şenol, Doğaç & Onay, Ceylan, 2023. "Impact of gamification on mitigating behavioral biases of investors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Grijalvo, Mercedes & Segura, Alejandro & Núñez, Yilsy, 2022. "Computer-based business games in higher education: A proposal of a gamified learning framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Lafortune, Jeanne & Pugatch, Todd & Tessada, José & Ubfal, Diego, 2022. "Can Interactive Online Training Make High School Students More Entrepreneurial? Experimental Evidence from Rwanda," IZA Discussion Papers 15064, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Dzandu, Michael D. & Hanu, Charles & Amegbe, Hayford, 2022. "Gamification of mobile money payment for generating customer value in emerging economies: The social impact theory perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    4. Leclercq, Thomas & Poncin, Ingrid & Hammedi, Wafa, 2020. "Opening the black box of gameful experience: Implications for gamification process design," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2016. "Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 842-852.
    6. Fotios Petropoulos & Enno Siemsen, 2023. "Forecast Selection and Representativeness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2672-2690, May.
    7. Lubart, Allan & Capelli, Sonia, 2024. "Gamification of the point of sale using hybrid-reality games: Non-players' negative influence on players' service experience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2023. "On the Disagreement of Forecasting Model Selection Criteria," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, June.
    9. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2020. "Using judgment to select and adjust forecasts from statistical models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 882-895.
    10. Behl, Abhishek & Jayawardena, Nirma & Pereira, Vijay & Islam, Nazrul & Giudice, Manlio Del & Choudrie, Jyoti, 2022. "Gamification and e-learning for young learners: A systematic literature review, bibliometric analysis, and future research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    12. Sharma, Wamika & Lim, Weng Marc & Kumar, Satish & Verma, Aastha & Kumra, Rajeev, 2024. "Game on! A state-of-the-art overview of doing business with gamification," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    13. Bekk, Magdalena & Eppmann, René & Klein, Kristina & Völckner, Franziska, 2022. "All that glitters is not gold: An investigation into the undesired effects of gamification and how to mitigate them through gamification design," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1059-1081.
    14. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2022. "Retail forecasting: Research and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1283-1318.
    15. Kang, Yanfei & Cao, Wei & Petropoulos, Fotios & Li, Feng, 2022. "Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 180-190.
    16. Semenoglou, Artemios-Anargyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Investigating the accuracy of cross-learning time series forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1072-1084.
    17. Pantelis Agathangelou & Demetris Trihinas & Ioannis Katakis, 2020. "A Multi-Factor Analysis of Forecasting Methods: A Study on the M4 Competition," Data, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-24, April.
    18. Thomas, Nibu John & Baral, Rupashree & Crocco, Oliver S. & Mohanan, Swathi, 2023. "A framework for gamification in the metaverse era: How designers envision gameful experience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    19. Aysun Kapucugil Ikiz & Gizem Halil Utma, 2023. "Combined Forecasts of Intermittent Demand for Stock-keeping Units (SKUs)," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, June.
    20. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2022. "M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1346-1364.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:167:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.