IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v23y2012i3p221-230.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Palley, Thomas

Abstract

This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between “formation” of inflation expectations and “incorporation” of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to expectation formation keeps Phillips curve theory in the policy orbit of natural rate thinking where there is no welfare justification for higher inflation even if there is a permanent inflation–unemployment trade-off. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to incorporation of inflation expectations breaks that orbit and provides a welfare economics rationale for Keynesian activist policies that reduce unemployment at the cost of higher inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Palley, Thomas, 2012. "The economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 221-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:221-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2012.02.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X12000082
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2012.02.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. William Darity, Jr. & Warren Young, 1995. "IS-LM: An Inquest," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-41, Spring.
    4. Thomas Palley, 1997. "Does Inflation Grease the Wheels of Adjustment? New evidence from the US economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 387-398.
    5. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    6. Thomas I. Palley, 2003. "The Backward–Bending Phillips Curve And The Minimum Unemployment Rate Of Inflation: Wage Adjustment With Opportunistic Firms," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 35-50, January.
    7. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    8. D. G. Champernowne, 1936. "Unemployment, Basic and Monetary: the Classical Analysis and the Keynesian," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 201-216.
    9. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Marc Lavoie, 1992. "Foundations of Post-Keynesian Economic Analysis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 275.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    12. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
    13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    14. Anthony Myatt, 1986. "On the Non-Existence of a Natural Rate of Unemployment and Kaleckian Micro Underpinnings to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 447-462, March.
    15. Paul C. Dalziel, 1990. "Market Power, Inflation, and Incomes Policies," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 424-438, March.
    16. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    17. repec:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:1:p:111-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Thomas I. Palley, 1996. "Cost-Push and Conflict Inflation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Post Keynesian Economics, chapter 11, pages 182-200, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Thomas I. Palley, 1990. "A Theory of Downward Wage Rigidity: Job Commitment Costs, Replacement Costs, and Tacit Coordination," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 466-486, March.
    20. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    21. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    22. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-754, Sept./Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Further thoughts on Phillips curves
      by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2014-07-18 13:57:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark Setterfield & Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions," Working Papers 2201, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Bienert, Sven & Sebastian, Steffen P. & Just, Tobias, . "Niedrigzinsumfeld und die Auswirkungen auf die Immobilienwirtschaft," Beiträge zur Immobilienwirtschaft, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics, number 8, August.
    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Pursuing the Phillips curve in an African monarchy: The Swazi case," MPRA Paper 89199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    5. Yegnanew A. Shiferaw, 2023. "An Understanding of How GDP, Unemployment and Inflation Interact and Change across Time and Frequency," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Tiberiu-Cristian Avrămescu, 2024. "Modelling the Economic Determinants of Unemployment Using the Multiple Linear Regression: a Case Study of Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 384-391, August.
    7. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Pursuing the Philips curve in an African monarchy: A Swazi case study," Working Papers 1832, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University.
    8. Yang, Jinrui, 2020. "Are large national debt and ultra-low inflation harmful? —— S-shape Phillips curve: the inflation-unemployment relationship of a low profit rate model," MPRA Paper 104970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," FMM Working Paper 74-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    11. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    2. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2005. "Back to Keynes?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 777-822.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    4. Stéphane Dupraz, 2024. "A Kinked‐Demand Theory of Price Rigidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 325-363, March.
    5. Javier Valles & Jose Vinals, 1999. "On the real effects of the monetary policy: A central banker's view," Working Papers 38, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Thomas I. Palley, 2008. "The Backward Bending Phillips Curves: A Simple Model," Working Papers wp168, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2008. "The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off at Low Inflation," NBER Working Papers 13986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:38:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1436-1466, June.
    12. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2016. "The New Classical Explanation of the Stagflation: A Psychological Way of Thinking," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    13. George A. Akerlof, 2007. "The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 5-36, March.
    14. Jorge Enrique Restrepo Londono, 1998. "Reglas monetarias en una economía pequena y abierta," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 17(33), pages 61-84, July.
    15. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1990. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Inflation and Unemployment," EconStor Preprints 157850, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Bennett T. McCallum, 1984. "Credibility and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 105-135.
    17. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    18. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. "Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-785, October.
    19. Rhenals M., Remberto & Saldarriaga, Juan Pablo, 2008. "Una regla de Taylor óptima para Colombia, 1991-2006," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, November.
    20. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Inflation expectation formation; Incorporation of inflation expectations; Backward bending Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:221-230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.