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Modelling the Economic Determinants of Unemployment Using the Multiple Linear Regression: a Case Study of Romania

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  • Tiberiu-Cristian Avrămescu

    (National University of Science and Technology POLITEHNICA Bucharest, Pitesti University Center, Romania)

Abstract

Unemployment represents a negative phenomenon in almost all countries of the world. It is a complex phenomenon that has multiple causes and important economic and social-human consequences. This paper aims to analyze the correlation between the unemployment rate, respectively the number of unemployed persons and some of the influencing factors. Therefore, we identified the main influencing factors of unemployment in Romania based on an econometric model using the multiple linear regression. This model allows forecasting the future economic trends of the indicators highlighting the level of unemployment. The result showed that the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product, the volume of foreign direct investments and the exports, as well as the inflation rate are significant factors influencing the unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiberiu-Cristian Avrămescu, 2024. "Modelling the Economic Determinants of Unemployment Using the Multiple Linear Regression: a Case Study of Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 384-391, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ovi:oviste:v:xxiv:y:2024:i:1:p:384-391
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nickell, Stephen, 1990. "Inflation and the UK Labour Market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 26-35, Winter.
    2. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    3. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
    4. Lavinia Stefania TOTAN & Barbu Bogdan POPESCU & Silvia Elena CRISTACHE, 2013. "The Impact Of Unemployment On Economic Growth In Romania, During The Crisis," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(6), pages 32-40, July.
    5. Palley, Thomas, 2012. "The economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 221-230.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; economic growth; investments; exports; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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