IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v11y2023i5p131-d1132783.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Understanding of How GDP, Unemployment and Inflation Interact and Change across Time and Frequency

Author

Listed:
  • Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

    (Department of Statistics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, Johannesburg 2006, South Africa)

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between the three pillars of the economy: unemployment, inflation, and GDP in Ethiopia using the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) analysis, the multivariate Student- t generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The dynamics between the three indicators were also investigated using the Toda–Yamamoto (TY) causality test. The empirical findings from the XWT method suggest a relationship between unemployment, inflation, and GDP, though the relationship varies over time and frequency. The estimation results from the multivariate Student- t GAS model show that the correlation between unemployment (overall, male, female, and youth) and inflation is highly significant, indicating that the correlation is dynamic. A dynamic relationship exists between GDP and unemployment, except for females and young people. The ARDL approach’s findings showed that unemployment significantly negatively impacted GDP. However, it was found that inflation significantly increased GDP. The general conclusion drawn from this study’s findings is that unemployment significantly affects GDP and inflation. Therefore, the government should aggressively implement policies to reduce unemployment, especially youth unemployment. Additionally, the administration must rehabilitate the country’s badly damaged economy and formalize a lasting cessation of hostilities between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Suggested Citation

  • Yegnanew A. Shiferaw, 2023. "An Understanding of How GDP, Unemployment and Inflation Interact and Change across Time and Frequency," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:5:p:131-:d:1132783
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/5/131/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/5/131/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "An African Growth Miracle?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(1), pages 10-27.
    2. Paul A. Dorosh & John W. Mellor, 2013. "Why Agriculture Remains a Viable Means of Poverty Reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Ethiopia," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 31(4), pages 419-441, July.
    3. Jiang, Kunliang & Zeng, Linhui & Song, Jiashan & Liu, Yimeng, 2022. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk of cryptocurrencies using the time-varying mixture-accelerating generalized autoregressive score model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Abdullah AL-Mutairi & Sulaiman Al-Abduljader & Kamal Naser, 2020. "Determinants of Inflation in Kuwait," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(3), pages 19-34, July-Sept.
    5. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    6. Torben Schubert & Henning Kroll, 2016. "Universities’ effects on regional GDP and unemployment: The case of Germany," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 467-489, August.
    7. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    9. Palley, Thomas, 2012. "The economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 221-230.
    10. Admasu Shiferaw, 2017. "Productive Capacity and Economic Growth in Ethiopia," CDP Background Papers 034, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    11. Frank Iyekoretin Ogbeide & Hilary Kanwanye & Sunday Kadiri, 2016. "Revisiting the Determinants of Unemployment in Nigeria: Do Resource Dependence and Financial Development Matter?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 430-443, December.
    12. Arsić, Milojko & Mladenović, Zorica & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2022. "Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 675-700.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abderraouf Mtiraoui, 2024. "Interaction between Migration and Economic Growth through Unemployment in the Context of Political Instability in the MENA Region," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 204-215, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Romaniello, Davide, 2024. "A composite index for workers’ bargaining power and the inflation rate in the United States, 1960–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 682-698.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Pursuing the Philips curve in an African monarchy: A Swazi case study," Working Papers 1832, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University.
    3. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2021. "Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 122-151, January.
    4. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Pursuing the Phillips curve in an African monarchy: The Swazi case," MPRA Paper 89199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Onwuemeka, Irene Olanma & Obiukwu, Sandralyn Ifeoma & Abamara, Kelechi Chibueze & Okeke, Queen Chijindu, 2024. "Is there a Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment: The Case of Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(9), pages 2606-2620, September.
    6. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    7. Tiberiu-Cristian Avrămescu, 2024. "Modelling the Economic Determinants of Unemployment Using the Multiple Linear Regression: a Case Study of Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 384-391, August.
    8. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    9. Thomas Habanabakize & Daniel Francois Meyer & Judit Oláh, 2019. "The Impact of Productivity, Investment and Real Wages on Employment Absorption Rate in South Africa," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Wong, Zoey Jia Rou & Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2020. "Credit Card Usage and Inflation: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 19-32.
    11. Nurudeen Abu, 2019. "Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: A Re-examination of the Phillips Curve and its Stability in Nigeria," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    12. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    15. Priewe, Jan, 2016. "Ethiopia's high growth and its challenges: Causes and prospects," IPE Working Papers 70/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    16. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    17. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    18. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    19. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    20. Bilgehan TEKIN & Erol YENER, 2019. "The causality between economic growth and stock market in developing and developed countries: Toda-Yamamoto approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 79-90, Summer.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:5:p:131-:d:1132783. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.