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Functional limit theorems for multitype branching processes and generalized Pólya urns

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  • Janson, Svante

Abstract

A functional limit theorem is proved for multitype continuous time Markov branching processes. As consequences, we obtain limit theorems for the branching process stopped by some stopping rule, for example when the total number of particles reaches a given level. Using the Athreya-Karlin embedding, these results yield asymptotic results for generalized Pólya urns. We investigate such results in detail and obtain explicit formulas for the asymptotic variances and covariances. The general formulas involve integrals of matrix functions; we show how they can be evaluated and simplified in important special cases. We also consider the numbers of drawn balls of different types and functional limit theorems for the urns. We illustrate our results by some examples, including several applications to random trees where our theorems and variance formulas give simple proofs of some known results; we also give some new results.

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  • Janson, Svante, 2004. "Functional limit theorems for multitype branching processes and generalized Pólya urns," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 177-245, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:110:y:2004:i:2:p:177-245
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    1. Kotz, Samuel & Mahmoud, Hosam & Robert, Philippe, 2000. "On generalized Pólya urn models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 163-173, August.
    2. Bai, Z. D. & Hu, Feifang, 1999. "Asymptotic theorems for urn models with nonhomogeneous generating matrices," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 87-101, March.
    3. Smythe, R. T., 1996. "Central limit theorems for urn models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 115-137, December.
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    1. José Moler & Fernando Plo & Henar Urmeneta, 2013. "A generalized Pólya urn and limit laws for the number of outputs in a family of random circuits," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(1), pages 46-61, March.
    2. Patrizia Berti & Irene Crimaldi & Luca Pratelli & Pietro Rigo, 2009. "Central Limit Theorems For Multicolor Urns With Dominated Colors," Quaderni di Dipartimento 106, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    3. Soumaya Idriss & Hosam Mahmoud, 2023. "Exact Covariances and Refined Asymptotics in Dichromatic Tenable Balanced Pólya Urn Schemes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Crimaldi, Irene & Dai Pra, Paolo & Louis, Pierre-Yves & Minelli, Ida G., 2019. "Synchronization and functional central limit theorems for interacting reinforced random walks," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 70-101.
    5. Kaj, Ingemar & Tahir, Daniah, 2019. "Stochastic equations and limit results for some two-type branching models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 35-46.
    6. Mailler, Cécile & Marckert, Jean-François, 2022. "Parameterised branching processes: A functional version of Kesten & Stigum theorem," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 339-377.
    7. Gopal K. Basak & Amites Dasgupta, 2006. "Central and Functional Central Limit Theorems for a Class of Urn Models," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 741-756, December.
    8. Kortchemski, Igor, 2015. "A predator–prey SIR type dynamics on large complete graphs with three phase transitions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 886-917.
    9. Kolesko, Konrad & Sava-Huss, Ecaterina, 2023. "Limit theorems for discrete multitype branching processes counted with a characteristic," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 49-75.
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    11. Yuan Ao & Li Qizhai & Xiong Ming & Tan Ming T., 2016. "Adaptive Design for Staggered-Start Clinical Trial," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Chen Chen & Hosam Mahmoud, 2018. "The continuous-time triangular Pólya process," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 70(2), pages 303-321, April.
    13. Brigitte Chauvin & Cécile Mailler & Nicolas Pouyanne, 2015. "Smoothing Equations for Large Pólya Urns," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 923-957, September.
    14. Berti, Patrizia & Crimaldi, Irene & Pratelli, Luca & Rigo, Pietro, 2010. "Central limit theorems for multicolor urns with dominated colors," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(8), pages 1473-1491, August.
    15. Yuan, Ao & Chai, Gen Xiang, 2008. "Optimal adaptive generalized Polya urn design for multi-arm clinical trials," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-24, January.
    16. Berbeglia, Franco & Berbeglia, Gerardo & Van Hentenryck, Pascal, 2021. "Market segmentation in online platforms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1025-1041.
    17. Mitsokapas, Evangelos & Harris, Rosemary J., 2022. "Decision-making with distorted memory: Escaping the trap of past experience," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    18. Dasgupta, Amites, 2024. "Azuma-Hoeffding bounds for a class of urn models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    19. Dimitris Cheliotis & Dimitra Kouloumpou, 2022. "Functional Limit Theorems for the Pólya Urn," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 2038-2051, September.
    20. Michael D Nicholson & Tibor Antal, 2019. "Competing evolutionary paths in growing populations with applications to multidrug resistance," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-25, April.

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