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An Adaptive Design for Multi-Arm Clinical Trials

Author

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  • Bai, Z. D.
  • Hu, Feifang
  • Shen, Liang

Abstract

The randomized play-the-winner (RPW) rule is very useful in clinical trials for patient allocation with two treatments. L. J. Wei (1979, Ann. Statist.7, 291-296) introduces the generalized Friedman's urn (GFU) model to clinical trials of K treatments (as an extension of the RPW). In this paper, we propose a new adaptive design for multi-arm clinical trials. The proposed adaptive design proportionally depends on the success rates of each treatment, so that a treatment which is doing well is more likely to be assigned in future trials than a treatment which is doing poorly. The new design is more reasonable although it is no longer a GFU model. In the paper we show that the new design has some desirable asymptotic properties and that it has wider and easier applications in practice. Some simulations also support this new design.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Z. D. & Hu, Feifang & Shen, Liang, 2002. "An Adaptive Design for Multi-Arm Clinical Trials," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:81:y:2002:i:1:p:1-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Smythe, R. T., 1996. "Central limit theorems for urn models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 115-137, December.
    2. Bai, Z. D. & Hu, Feifang, 1999. "Asymptotic theorems for urn models with nonhomogeneous generating matrices," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 87-101, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Soumaya Idriss, 2022. "Nonlinear Unbalanced Urn Models via Stochastic Approximation," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Bélisle, Claude & Melfi, Vince, 2008. "Independence after adaptive allocation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 214-224, February.
    3. Yang, Li & Hu, Jiang & Bai, Zhidong, 2024. "Revisit of a Diaconis urn model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Moler, José A. & Plo, Fernando & San Miguel, Miguel, 2006. "An adaptive design for clinical trials with non-dichotomous response and prognostic factors," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(17), pages 1940-1946, November.
    5. Li-Xin, Zhang, 2006. "Asymptotic results on a class of adaptive multi-treatment designs," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 586-605, March.

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