IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v71y2020ics0038012119302046.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors

Author

Listed:
  • van Ackere, Ann
  • Schulz, Peter J.

Abstract

The WHO goal of eradicating measles is delayed by widespread scepticism of parents against the recommended MMR vaccination. In this context, a model of the prevalence of measles that incorporates behavioural aspects is desirable. Parental decisions can be influenced by epidemiological and behavioural factors. The former include vaccination coverage and its impact on the prevalence of the disease. The latter include perceptions of the risk to be infected, which affects vaccination decisions, as well as government campaigns to affect vaccination behaviour, vaccination scares or changes in disease control policies. We develop a model that incorporates both kinds of effects. In particular, we illustrate how incorporating parental response to a change in the prevalence of the disease impacts the outcome of governmental policies aiming to increase the vaccination coverage. While calibrated to measles, this model is also applicable to other childhood diseases, such as pertussis or diphtheria. Different scenarios illustrate the long-term consequences of the interaction between health policies (in particular, vaccination campaigns) or the agenda of social institutions (e.g., drawing attention to specific events to create vaccination scares) and parental reactions. Periodic ups and downs of the disease's prevalence, characteristic of epidemiological feedback, are the consequence of the interaction between parental behaviour and events such as vaccination campaigns or vaccination scares. International and national health authorities, pursuing the fight against measles, may be helped by the potential of the model to provide understanding in the way different predictors of vaccination behaviour interact.

Suggested Citation

  • van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s0038012119302046
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2019.100750
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012119302046
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2019.100750?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klein, Eili & Laxminarayan, Ramanan & Smith, David L. & Gilligan, Christopher A., 2007. "Economic incentives and mathematical models of disease," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 707-732, October.
    2. Elnaz Karimi & Ketra Schmitt & Ali Akgunduz, 2015. "Effect of individual protective behaviors on influenza transmission: an agent-based model," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 318-333, September.
    3. Fawziah Marra & Karine Cloutier & Bridgette Oteng & Carlo Marra & Gina Ogilvie, 2009. "Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 127-147, February.
    4. Unknown, 2014. "Media Coverage 2014," 2014: Ethics, Efficiency and Food Security: Feeding the 9 Billion, Well, 26-28 August 2014 225573, Crawford Fund.
    5. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
    6. Sun-Young Kim & Sue Goldie, 2008. "Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Vaccination Programmes," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 191-215, March.
    7. Barrett, Scott & Hoel, Michael, 2007. "Optimal disease eradication," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 627-652, October.
    8. Sterman, J.D., 2006. "Learning from evidence in a complex world," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(3), pages 505-514.
    9. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2016. "Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1383-1403, July.
    10. Sheldon Jacobson & Edward Sewell & Ruben Proano, 2006. "An analysis of the pediatric vaccine supply shortage problem," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 371-389, November.
    11. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, 2016. "Framework for Optimal Global Vaccine Stockpile Design for Vaccine‐Preventable Diseases: Application to Measles and Cholera Vaccines as Contrasting Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1487-1509, July.
    12. Andrea Anonychuk & Andrea Tricco & Chris Bauch & Ba’ Pham & Vladimir Gilca & Bernard Duval & Ava John-Baptiste & Gloria Woo & Murray Krahn, 2008. "Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Hepatitis A Vaccine," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 17-32, January.
    13. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2009. "Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 650-663, April.
    14. Aswin Dhamodharan & Ruben Proano, 2012. "Determining the optimal vaccine vial size in developing countries: a Monte Carlo simulation approach," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 188-196, September.
    15. Kimberly M. Thompson & Cassie L. Odahowski, 2016. "The Costs and Valuation of Health Impacts of Measles and Rubella Risk Management Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1357-1382, July.
    16. Homer, J.B. & Hirsch, G.B., 2006. "System dynamics modeling for public health: Background and opportunities," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(3), pages 452-458.
    17. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2017. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective Part II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1041-1051, June.
    18. Kimberly M. Thompson & Stephen L. Cochi, 2016. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1288-1296, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Jingwen & Wang, Xinwei & Rong, Lili & Pan, Qiuwei & Bao, Chunbing & Zheng, Qinyue, 2024. "Planning for the optimal vaccination sequence in the context of a population-stratified model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Kazancoglu, Yigit & Ekinci, Esra & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Sezer, Muruvvet Deniz & Ozbiltekin-Pala, Melisa, 2023. "Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2017. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective Part II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1041-1051, June.
    2. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2018. "Using integrated modeling to support the global eradication of vaccine‐preventable diseases," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 78-120, January.
    3. Anna K. Lugnér & Sido D. Mylius & Jacco Wallinga, 2010. "Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 518-531, May.
    4. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    5. Kimberly M. Thompson & Nima D. Badizadegan, 2017. "Modeling the Transmission of Measles and Rubella to Support Global Management Policy Analyses and Eradication Investment Cases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1109-1131, June.
    6. Andrea Galeotti & Brian W. Rogers, 2013. "Strategic Immunization and Group Structure," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, May.
    7. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle, 2021. "Optimal prevention and elimination of infectious diseases," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    9. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio & Torrente, Maria-Laura, 2022. "Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 667, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    10. Hassmiller Lich, Kristen & Urban, Jennifer Brown & Frerichs, Leah & Dave, Gaurav, 2017. "Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 254-264.
    11. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    12. Stéphane Mechoulan, 2007. "Market structure and communicable diseases," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 468-492, May.
    13. repec:esx:essedp:707 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Scott Barrett, 2007. "The Smallpox Eradication Game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 179-207, January.
    15. Sabine Liebenehm & Bernard Bett & Cristobal Verdugo & Mohamed Said, 2016. "Optimal Drug Control under Risk of Drug Resistance – The Case of African Animal Trypanosomosis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 510-533, June.
    16. Karl M Rich & Matthew J Denwood & Alistair W Stott & Dominic J Mellor & Stuart W J Reid & George J Gunn, 2013. "Systems Approaches to Animal Disease Surveillance and Resource Allocation: Methodological Frameworks for Behavioral Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-1, November.
    17. Mahamoud, Aziza & Roche, Brenda & Homer, Jack, 2013. "Modelling the social determinants of health and simulating short-term and long-term intervention impacts for the city of Toronto, Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 247-255.
    18. Hazel Squires & James Chilcott & Ronald Akehurst & Jennifer Burr & Michael P. Kelly, 2016. "A systematic literature review of the key challenges for developing the structure of public health economic models," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 61(3), pages 289-298, April.
    19. Nidhee Jadeja & Nina J Zhu & Reda M Lebcir & Franco Sassi & Alison Holmes & Raheelah Ahmad, 2022. "Using system dynamics modelling to assess the economic efficiency of innovations in the public sector - a systematic review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, February.
    20. Andrew Abel & Stavros Panageas, 2024. "Are Zero-Covid Policies Optimal?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 47-70, July.
    21. Brynle Owen & Andrew D Brown & Jill Kuhlberg & Lynne Millar & Melanie Nichols & Christina Economos & Steven Allender, 2018. "Understanding a successful obesity prevention initiative in children under 5 from a systems perspective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-10, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s0038012119302046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.