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Optimal Disease Eradication

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hoel

    (Department of Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Scott Barrett

    (School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Using a dynamic model of the control of an infectious disease, we derive the conditions under which eradication will be optimal. When eradication is feasible, the optimal program requires either a low vaccination rate or eradication. A high vaccination rate is never optimal. Under special conditions, the results are especially stark: the optimal policy is either not to vaccinate at all or to eradicate. Our analysis yields a cost-benefit rule for eradication, which we apply to the current initiative to eradicate polio.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hoel & Scott Barrett, 2004. "Optimal Disease Eradication," Working Papers 2004.50, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2004.50
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    9. Sutter, R.W. & Cochi, S.L., 1997. "Comment: ethical dilemmas in worldwide polio eradication programs," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(6), pages 913-916.
    10. Francis, Peter J., 1997. "Dynamic epidemiology and the market for vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 383-406, February.
    11. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle, 2021. "Optimal prevention and elimination of infectious diseases," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Andrea Galeotti & Brian W. Rogers, 2013. "Strategic Immunization and Group Structure," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, May.
    3. van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Martin F Quaas & Jasper N Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A Drupp & Till Requate, 2021. "The social cost of contacts: Theory and evidence for the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Eric Nævdal, 2012. "Fighting Transient Epidemics—Optimal Vaccination Schedules Before And After An Outbreak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1456-1476, December.
    6. Stéphane Mechoulan, 2007. "Market structure and communicable diseases," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 468-492, May.
    7. Alejandro Caparrós & Michael Finus, 2020. "The Corona-Pandemic: A Game-Theoretic Perspective on Regional and Global Governance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 913-927, August.
    8. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Infection, Acquired Immunity and Externalities in Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2009. "Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 650-663, April.
    11. Martin F. Quaas & Jasper N. Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A. Drupp & Till Requate, 2020. "The Social Cost of Contacts: Theory and Evidence for the Covid-19 Pandemic in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8347, CESifo.
    12. Bosi, Stefano & Camacho, Carmen & Desmarchelier, David, 2021. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    14. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," PSE Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    16. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio & Torrente, Maria-Laura, 2022. "Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 667, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    17. M. Ceddia, 2012. "Optimal Disease Eradication in Sympatric Metapopulations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 499-530, August.
    18. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.
    19. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2023. "On human capital accumulation in times of epidemic," PSE Working Papers halshs-04164371, HAL.
    20. repec:esx:essedp:707 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Scott Barrett, 2007. "The Smallpox Eradication Game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 179-207, January.
    22. Sharbayta, Sileshi Sintayehu & Buonomo, Bruno & d'Onofrio, Alberto & Abdi, Tadesse, 2022. "‘Period doubling’ induced by optimal control in a behavioral SIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    23. repec:esx:essedp:716 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Andrew Abel & Stavros Panageas, 2024. "Are Zero-Covid Policies Optimal?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 47-70, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eradication of infectious diseases; Vaccination; Control theory; Cost-benefit analysis; Poliomyelitis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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