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An analysis of the pediatric vaccine supply shortage problem

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  • Sheldon Jacobson
  • Edward Sewell
  • Ruben Proano

Abstract

In 2002, several factors resulted in pediatric vaccine manufacturers not being able to produce a sufficient number of vaccines to vaccinate all the children in the United States according to the Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule. The resulting vaccine supply shortage resulted in thousands of children not being fully immunized according to this schedule, and hence, created an unnecessary risk for epidemic outbreaks of several childhood diseases. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention responded to this crisis by using pediatric vaccine stockpiles to mitigate the impact of future shortages. This paper presents a stochastic model that captures the vaccine supply during production interruptions. This model is used to assess the impact of pediatric vaccine stockpile levels on vaccination coverage rates, by considering the probability that all children can be immunized according to the Recommended Childhood Immunization Schedule over a given time period and the expected minimum vaccine supply. The model is also used to assess the proposed pediatric vaccine stockpile levels recommended by the United States Department of Health and Human Services. The results of this analysis suggest that the proposed vaccine stockpile levels are adequate to meet future vaccine production interruptions, provided that such production interruptions do not last more than six months (which is not surprising, given that is the time period for which they were designed). However, given that recent vaccine production interruptions have lasted (on average) for over one year, the proposed vaccine stockpile levels are insufficient to meet the nation’s pediatric immunization needs during such time periods, which in turn could lead to localized and/or widespread disease outbreaks. Moreover, a moderate investment in higher vaccine stockpile levels would lead to a significantly reduced risk of such events. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Sheldon Jacobson & Edward Sewell & Ruben Proano, 2006. "An analysis of the pediatric vaccine supply shortage problem," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 371-389, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:9:y:2006:i:4:p:371-389
    DOI: 10.1007/s10729-006-0001-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Raman Pall & Yvan Gauthier & Sofia Auer & Walid Mowaswes, 2023. "Predicting drug shortages using pharmacy data and machine learning," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 395-411, September.
    2. Tang, Lianhua & Li, Yantong & Bai, Danyu & Liu, Tao & Coelho, Leandro C., 2022. "Bi-objective optimization for a multi-period COVID-19 vaccination planning problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Shane Hall & Edward Sewell & Sheldon Jacobson, 2008. "Maximizing the effectiveness of a pediatric vaccine formulary while prohibiting extraimmunization," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 339-352, December.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, 2016. "Framework for Optimal Global Vaccine Stockpile Design for Vaccine‐Preventable Diseases: Application to Measles and Cholera Vaccines as Contrasting Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1487-1509, July.
    5. Muckstadt, John A. & Klein, Michael G. & Jackson, Peter L. & Gougelet, Robert M. & Hupert, Nathaniel, 2023. "Efficient and effective large-scale vaccine distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    8. Ece Zeliha Demirci & Nesim Kohen Erkip, 2020. "Designing intervention scheme for vaccine market: a bilevel programming approach," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 453-485, June.

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