IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v95y2024ipbs1057521924003405.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of population aging on capital structure decisions and capital market efficiency: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Hua
  • Chen, Yaorui

Abstract

The worsening of demographic aging has precipitated a discernible scarcity in China's labor force, prompting a pivotal shift in the capital market's factor allocation efficiency and compelling enterprises to recalibrate their capital utilization tactics. Utilizing a dataset of Chinese A-share listed companies spanning 2007 to 2021, this study meticulously examines how aging trends are sculpting corporate capital structure choices and assesses their subsequent ramifications on the efficacy of the capital market. The findings indicate that demographic aging necessitates more frequent capital structure realignments within firms, particularly heightening the dependency on debt financing. This shift mirrors the corporate response to escalating labor costs and market demand dynamics and reshapes the capital market's financing architecture and operational efficiency. Through a nuanced comparative analysis, the study unveils the differential impacts of demographic aging on capital structure adjustments across diverse enterprise categories, highlighting a pronounced effect in labor-intensive sectors and firms with elevated labor costs. The analysis further delineates that non-state-owned enterprises exhibit a more adaptable and proactive stance in their capital structure adjustments in response to aging trends, as opposed to their state-owned counterparts. These insights illuminate the intricate interplay between macro-demographic trends and corporate capital structure decisions, underscoring their profound implications for capital market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Hua & Chen, Yaorui, 2024. "The impact of population aging on capital structure decisions and capital market efficiency: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:95:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924003405
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103408
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924003405
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103408?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Justin Yifu Lin, 2011. "New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 193-221, August.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Luis Garicano & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2014. "The Distinct Effects of Information Technology and Communication Technology on Firm Organization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 2859-2885, December.
    5. Huang, Rongbing & Ritter, Jay R., 2009. "Testing Theories of Capital Structure and Estimating the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 237-271, April.
    6. Andreas Fagereng & Charles Gottlieb & Luigi Guiso, 2017. "Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 705-750, April.
    7. Tan, Youchao & Liu, Xiumei & Sun, Hanwen & Zeng, Cheng(Colin), 2022. "Population ageing, labour market rigidity and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    8. James Liang & Hui Wang & Edward P. Lazear, 2018. "Demographics and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(S1), pages 140-196.
    9. Doerr, Sebastian & Kabaş, Gazi & Ongena, Steven, 2024. "Population Aging and Bank Risk-Taking," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 3037-3061, November.
    10. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    11. Matthew Serfling, 2016. "Firing Costs and Capital Structure Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2239-2286, October.
    12. Faulkender, Michael & Flannery, Mark J. & Hankins, Kristine Watson & Smith, Jason M., 2012. "Cash flows and leverage adjustments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 632-646.
    13. Mazzonna, Fabrizio & Peracchi, Franco, 2012. "Ageing, cognitive abilities and retirement," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 691-710.
    14. Kejing Chen & Wenqi Guo & Yanling Kang & Jing Wang, 2022. "Does the Deleveraging Policy Increase the Risk of Corporate Debt Default: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 601-613, February.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Demographics and Automation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 1-44.
    16. Joseph Kopecky & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "The Savings Glut of the Old: Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier," NBER Working Papers 29944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Flannery, Mark J. & Rangan, Kasturi P., 2006. "Partial adjustment toward target capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 469-506, March.
    18. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    19. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & John Van Reenen, 2011. "Minimum Wages and Firm Profitability," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 129-151, January.
    20. Xiao Shen & Jingbo Liang & Jiangning Cao & Zhengwen Wang, 2022. "How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-23, December.
    21. Erwan Morellec & Boris Nikolov & Norman Schürhoff, 2012. "Corporate Governance and Capital Structure Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 803-848, June.
    22. David A. Matsa, 2010. "Capital Structure as a Strategic Variable: Evidence from Collective Bargaining," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1197-1232, June.
    23. Hoi, Chun Keung(Stan) & Wu, Qiang & Zhang, Hao, 2019. "Does social capital mitigate agency problems? Evidence from Chief Executive Officer (CEO) compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 498-519.
    24. Cook, Douglas O. & Tang, Tian, 2010. "Macroeconomic conditions and capital structure adjustment speed," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 73-87, February.
    25. Ling, Xiaoting & Wu, Wuqing, 2022. "Leverage and investment efficiency: Evidence from China's deleveraging policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    26. Hasan, Iftekhar & Hoi, Chun Keung & Wu, Qiang & Zhang, Hao, 2017. "Social Capital and Debt Contracting: Evidence from Bank Loans and Public Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 1017-1047, June.
    27. Fuxiu Jiang & Zhan Jiang & Jicheng Huang & Kenneth A. Kim & John R. Nofsinger, 2017. "Bank Competition and Leverage Adjustments," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 995-1022, December.
    28. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    29. Susan Christopherson & Ron Martin & Jane Pollard, 2013. "Financialisation: roots and repercussions," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 6(3), pages 351-357.
    30. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    31. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Manuel Lancastre & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 325-342, December.
    32. Federico Cingano & Francesco Manaresi & Enrico Sette, 2016. "Does Credit Crunch Investment Down? New Evidence on the Real Effects of the Bank-Lending Channel," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2737-2773.
    33. Elena Simintzi & Vikrant Vig & Paolo Volpin, 2015. "Labor Protection and Leverage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(2), pages 561-591.
    34. Bo Zhang & Ruixue Zhou & Limei Yang & Ximeng Zhang, 2023. "Population aging and corporate innovation: evidence from China," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 986-1007, July.
    35. Qiu, Baoyin & Cheng, Bo, 2022. "Is a deleveraging policy effective? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 471-480.
    36. Ramin P. Baghai & Rui C. Silva & Viktor Thell & Vikrant Vig, 2021. "Talent in Distressed Firms: Investigating the Labor Costs of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2907-2961, December.
    37. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Geng, Heng (Griffin) & Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo, 2022. "Minimum Wage and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in China," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 94-126, February.
    39. Sanz, Ismael & Velazquez, Francisco J., 2007. "The role of ageing in the growth of government and social welfare spending in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 917-931, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tongxia Li & Chun Lu, 2023. "Local social environment and the speed of leverage adjustment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 1919-1952, June.
    2. Xia, Changyuan & Chan, Kam C. & Cao, Chunfang & Tan, Youchao, 2021. "Generalized trust, personalized trust, and dynamics of capital structure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Jiang, Dequan & Lan, Meng & Li, Weiping & Shen, Yongjian, 2024. "Threat or opportunity? Unveiling the impact of population aging on corporate labor investment efficiency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Dang, Tung Lam & Dang, Viet Anh & Moshirian, Fariborz & Nguyen, Lily & Zhang, Bohui, 2019. "News media coverage and corporate leverage adjustments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Wenlian Gao & Feifei Zhu & Kai Chen, 2023. "The role of bank lenders in firm leverage adjustments," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 63-97, February.
    6. Li, Mingming & Chiang, Yao-Min & Liu, Haiming, 2023. "Employment protection and leverage adjustment speed: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Aflatooni, Abbas & Ghaderi, Kaveh & Mansouri, Kefsan, 2022. "Sanctions against Iran, political connections and speed of adjustment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    8. Biswajit Ghose & Kailash Chandra Kabra, 2019. "Capital Structure Dynamics and Financing Imbalance: Evidence from an Emerging Economy," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 103-124, November.
    9. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 39-64, January.
    10. Wenfei Li & Cen Wu & Liping Xu & Qingquan Tang, 2017. "Bank connections and the speed of leverage adjustment: evidence from China's listed firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1349-1381, December.
    11. Bai, Min & Ho, Ly & Lu, Yue & Qin, Yafeng, 2023. "Labor protection and dynamic leverage adjustments in the OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 502-527.
    12. Tselmuun Tserenkhuu, 2023. "Population aging and economic growth: A semiparametric panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 342-354.
    13. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhu, Yueteng, 2021. "Social insurance law and corporate financing decisions in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 816-837.
    14. Maroney, Neal & Wang, Wei & Kabir Hassan, M., 2019. "Incorporating active adjustment into a financing based model of capital structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 204-221.
    15. Xiao, He, 2022. "Environmental regulation and firm capital structure dynamics," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 770-787.
    16. Biswajit Ghose & Kailash Chandra Kabra, 2020. "Does Growth Affect Firms’ Leverage Adjustment Speed? A Study of Indian Firms," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 8(2), pages 139-155, July.
    17. Ernest Ezeani & Rami Salem & Frank Kwabi & Khalid Boutaine & Bilal & Bushra Komal, 2022. "Board monitoring and capital structure dynamics: evidence from bank-based economies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 473-498, February.
    18. M. E. Bontempi & L. Bottazzi & R. Golinelli, 2015. "Dynamic corporate capital structure behavior: empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity," Working Papers wp988, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    19. Ho, Ly & Bai, Min & Lu, Yue & Qin, Yafeng, 2021. "The effect of corporate sustainability performance on leverage adjustments," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    20. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2019. "Determinants of Optimal Capital Structure and Speed of Adjustment: Evidence from the U.S. ICT Sector," Working papers 2019-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:95:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924003405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.