IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i4p3305-d1065006.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-Provincial Data in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China)

  • Mingde Jia

    (School of Economics and Management, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China)

Abstract

China’s green innovation and green transformation is facing the uncertain challenge of an aging population. Based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019 in 30 provinces of China, this paper uses the threshold regression approach to test the green innovation effect of population aging. The following important conclusions are obtained through empirical analysis. First, population aging has a significant inhibiting effect on green innovation. This inhibition has shown an overall downward trend. Second, the green innovation effect of population aging has the characteristic of regional heterogeneity. The negative impact of population aging on green innovation in the western region shows a “U” shaped distribution with the deepening of population aging. The inflection point value of the “U” shape is 18.1%. The inhibitory effect of population aging on green innovation in the central region is higher than that in the eastern and western regions, with the degree of inhibitory effect reaching over 41%. The inhibitory effect of population aging on green innovation in the eastern region has obvious marginal decreasing characteristics. Third, the moderating mechanisms of different regional conditions are different. The green innovation effect of population aging is positive when the level of urbanization exceeds 70% and trade openness exceeds 1.1547. Green finance is also a positive moderator. However, population aging can negatively affect green innovation through environmental regulation and human capital channels. Thus, China should adopt supporting measures for green innovation market cultivation and green industry development, and enhance its green innovation capabilities through channels such as trade opening, urbanization and green finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Liu & Mingde Jia, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-Provincial Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3305-:d:1065006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3305/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3305/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Sun, Huaping & Edziah, Bless Kofi & Kporsu, Anthony Kwaku & Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Energy efficiency: The role of technological innovation and knowledge spillover," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Andrea Bassanini & Luca Nunziata & Danielle Venn, 2009. "Job protection legislation and productivity growth in OECD countries [Appropriate growth policy: a unifying framework]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(58), pages 349-402.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    5. Scarpetta, Stefano & Tressel, Thierry, 2004. "Boosting productivity via innovation and adoption of new technologies : any role for labor market institutions?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3273, The World Bank.
    6. Benjamin F. Jones, 2010. "Age and Great Invention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    8. Rachel M. Friedberg, 2001. "The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1373-1408.
    9. Tan, Youchao & Liu, Xiumei & Sun, Hanwen & Zeng, Cheng(Colin), 2022. "Population ageing, labour market rigidity and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    10. Wachsen, Eva & Blind, Knut, 2016. "More labour market flexibility for more innovation? Evidence from employer–employee linked micro data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 941-950.
    11. Cristiano Antonelli & Francesco Quatraro, 2014. "The effects of biased technological changes on total factor productivity: a rejoinder and new empirical evidence," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 281-299, April.
    12. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1037-1078.
    13. Stucki, Tobias & Woerter, Martin & Arvanitis, Spyros & Peneder, Michael & Rammer, Christian, 2018. "How different policy instruments affect green product innovation: A differentiated perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 245-261.
    14. Zhu, Lin & Luo, Jian & Dong, Qingli & Zhao, Yang & Wang, Yunyue & Wang, Yong, 2021. "Green technology innovation efficiency of energy-intensive industries in China from the perspective of shared resources: Dynamic change and improvement path," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    15. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    16. Hoxha, Sergei & Kleinknecht, Alfred, 2020. "When labour market rigidities are useful for innovation. Evidence from German IAB firm-level data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(7).
    17. Chen, Zhongfei & Zhang, Xiao & Chen, Fanglin, 2021. "Do carbon emission trading schemes stimulate green innovation in enterprises? Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    19. Cheng, Ya & Awan, Usama & Ahmad, Shabbir & Tan, Zhixiong, 2021. "How do technological innovation and fiscal decentralization affect the environment? A story of the fourth industrial revolution and sustainable growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Kazunori Minetaki & Masato Shirai & Futoshi Kurokawa, 2002. "Effects of Information Technology and Aging Work Force on Labor Demand and Technological Progress in Japanese Industries: 1980-1998," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-145, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    21. Yu-Shan Chen & Shyh-Bao Lai & Chao-Tung Wen, 2006. "The Influence of Green Innovation Performance on Corporate Advantage in Taiwan," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 331-339, September.
    22. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    23. Song, Wenfei & Han, Xianfeng, 2022. "The bilateral effects of foreign direct investment on green innovation efficiency: Evidence from 30 Chinese provinces," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    24. Kammerer, Daniel, 2009. "The effects of customer benefit and regulation on environmental product innovation.: Empirical evidence from appliance manufacturers in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(8-9), pages 2285-2295, June.
    25. Miao, Cheng-lin & Duan, Meng-meng & Zuo, Yang & Wu, Xin-yu, 2021. "Spatial heterogeneity and evolution trend of regional green innovation efficiency--an empirical study based on panel data of industrial enterprises in China's provinces," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    26. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    27. Klarin Tomislav, 2018. "The Concept of Sustainable Development: From its Beginning to the Contemporary Issues," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(1), pages 67-94, May.
    28. Sascha Kraus & Matthias Breier & Sonia Dasí-Rodríguez, 2020. "The art of crafting a systematic literature review in entrepreneurship research," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 1023-1042, September.
    29. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    30. Fang, Zhen & Razzaq, Asif & Mohsin, Muhammad & Irfan, Muhammad, 2022. "Spatial spillovers and threshold effects of internet development and entrepreneurship on green innovation efficiency in China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    31. Xiongfeng Pan & Jing Zhang & Changyu Li & Rong Quan & Bin Li, 2018. "Exploring Dynamic Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on China’s CO $$_{2}$$ 2 Emissions Using Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 1139-1151, December.
    32. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    34. Clarke-Sather, Afton & Qu, Jiansheng & Wang, Qin & Zeng, Jingjing & Li, Yan, 2011. "Carbon inequality at the sub-national scale: A case study of provincial-level inequality in CO2 emissions in China 1997-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5420-5428, September.
    35. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Yang, Xiaolei & He, Lingyun & Xia, Yufei & Chen, Yufeng, 2019. "Effect of government subsidies on renewable energy investments: The threshold effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 156-166.
    37. Gordo, Laura Romeu & Skirbekk, Vegard, 2013. "Skill demand and the comparative advantage of age: Jobs tasks and earnings from the 1980s to the 2000s in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 61-69.
    38. Jakob Madsen & Richard Damania, 2001. "Labour Demand and Wage-induced Innovations: Evidence from the OECD countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 323-334.
    39. Manolis Manioudis & Giorgos Meramveliotakis, 2022. "Broad strokes towards a grand theory in the analysis of sustainable development: a return to the classical political economy," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 866-878, September.
    40. Earnhart, Dietrich, 2004. "Regulatory factors shaping environmental performance at publicly-owned treatment plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 655-681, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sheng, Jichuan & Ding, Rui & Yang, Hongqiang, 2024. "Corporate green innovation in an aging population: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tan, Youchao & Liu, Xiumei & Sun, Hanwen & Zeng, Cheng(Colin), 2022. "Population ageing, labour market rigidity and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    2. Song, Wenfei & Han, Xianfeng, 2022. "The bilateral effects of foreign direct investment on green innovation efficiency: Evidence from 30 Chinese provinces," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    3. Wang, Ke-Liang & Sun, Ting-Ting & Xu, Ru-Yu & Miao, Zhuang & Cheng, Yun-He, 2022. "How does internet development promote urban green innovation efficiency? Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Sheng, Jichuan & Ding, Rui & Yang, Hongqiang, 2024. "Corporate green innovation in an aging population: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Catarina Peralta & Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2021. "Automation, Education, and Population: Dynamic Effects in an OLG Growth and Fertility Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Fanglin LI & Michael APPIAH & Regina Naa Amua DODOO, 2020. "The Effects Of Technology And Labor On Growth In Emerging Countries," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(2), pages 39-47, June.
    7. Kim, Hoolda & Song Lee, Bun, 2023. "Aging workforce, wages, and productivity: Do older workers drag productivity down in Korea?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    8. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    9. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 39-64, January.
    10. Allen, Steven G., 2023. "Demand for older workers: What do we know? What do we need to learn?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    11. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    13. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Peiyao Liu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "The moderating role of financial development in the nexus between population aging and saving," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-32, April.
    14. Milanez Ana, 2020. "Workforce Ageing and Labour Productivity Dynamics," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 66(3), pages 1-13, September.
    15. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    16. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2022. "Demographic change, technological advance, and growth: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Jon Paul Laka & Ricardo Aguado, 2019. "Workforce Ageing and Labour Productivity in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-16, October.
    19. Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2021. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 833-847.
    20. Daniele Angelini, 2023. "Aging Population and Technology Adoption," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2023-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3305-:d:1065006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.