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Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?

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  • Bitar, Nicholas
  • Chakrabarti, Avik
  • Zeaiter, Hussein

Abstract

A vast and growing empirical literature aims at identifying the links between economic growth and public debt. The literature is extensive and controversial. Can policy-makers use this body of research to learn anything about the growth-debt nexus? We revisit the Reinhart-Rogoff (RR) hypothesis to examine the sensitivity of any plausible association between growth and debt to systematic alterations in the conditioning information set. Our meta-analyses, spanning the complete RR panel of 44 countries over the period 1946–2009, lead us to conclude with reasonable confidence that Reinhart and Rogoff were right!.

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  • Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:614-620
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2018.07.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Economic growth; Austerity; Sensitivity analysis; Panel macro-econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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