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Relationship between Economic Growth and Debt: An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Mohammed Ershad HUSSAIN
  • Mahfuzul HAQUE
  • Richard S. IGWIKE

    (Dillard University, USA)

Abstract

In this study, we examine the connection between economic growth and debt, with the question in mind -“Is debt a burden and bad for economic growth? Employing several sophisticated statistical approaches to investigate the problem and to assess the impact of debt on economic growth in 48 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa from 1995 to 2012, we find evidence of Granger causality between debt and economic growth in 8 out of the 48 sub-Saharan countries during the period of study and validate for the existence of “Debt Laffer Curve.” We also study the relationship between debt and economic growth rate in Granger causality and Dynamic Arellano-Bond panel data estimation frameworks, and find evidence of a negative correlation between the two variables (Debt and GDP) and confirm the findings by testing several versions of the models. Political decision and economic policy are intertwined and need to be examined carefully when implemented for economic growth and our findings lend credence to the politically unpopular austerity measures (constraints on government spending financed by borrowing). There is a limit to the economic growth rate that the government financed expenditure can bring. If the burden of debt is too high then there is a negative impact of debt on the economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE & Richard S. IGWIKE, 2015. "Relationship between Economic Growth and Debt: An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 262-275, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:2:y:2015:i:2:p:262-275
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    Cited by:

    1. N. Mhlaba & A. Phiri, 2019. "Is public debt harmful towards economic growth? New evidence from South Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1603653-160, January.
    2. Callistus Tabansi Okeke & Chinwe Ann Anisiobi & Chinwe Monica Madueke, 2023. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(3), pages 705-718, March.
    3. Raymond Osi Alenoghena & Justin Amase & Adolphus Arhotomhenla Aghughu, 2022. "The Threshold Effect of Domestic Public Borrowing on the Nigerian Economy," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(5), pages 824-833, May.
    4. H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Theshne Kisten, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of government debt on GDP growth: evidence from Namibia," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 543-558.
    8. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    9. Sylvester Ohiomu, 2020. "External Debt and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(2), pages 330-343, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Debt; Laffer curve and Investments.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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