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Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model

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  • Hugosson, Muriel Beser

Abstract

Uncertainties related to demand model system outputs is an important issue in travel demand models. This paper focuses on uncertainties arisen from the fact that models are estimated on a sample of the population (and not the whole population). Forecasting systems can be quite complex, and may contain procedures that not easily permit analytically derived statistical measures of uncertainty. In this paper, the possibilities to use computer-intensive numerical methods to compute statistical measures for very complex systems, without being bound to an analytical approach, are explored. Here, the bootstrap method is used to obtain statistical measures of outputs produced by the forecasting system SAMPERS. The SAMPERS system is used by Swedish transport authorities. The bootstrap method is briefly described as well as the procedure of applying bootstrap on the SAMPERS system. Numerical results are presented for selected forecast results at different levels such as total traffic demand, origin-destination demand, train line demand and the demand on specific links. Also, the uncertainty related to the value of time estimate is analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:6:p:531-547
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2005. "Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 522-530, July.
    2. Bergström, Pål, 1999. "Bootstrap Methods and Applications in Econometrics - A Brief Survey," Working Paper Series 1999:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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    1. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Erhardt, Gregory D. & Schmitt, David & Chen, Mei & Wachs, Martin, 2021. "Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 339-349.
    2. Kangsoo Kim & Jinseog Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2024. "Determining contract conditions in a PPP project among deep uncertainty in future outturn travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 937-961, June.
    3. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
    4. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2005. "Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 522-530, July.
    5. Westin, Jonas & de Jong, Gerard & Vierth, Inge & Krüger, Niclas & Karlsson, Rune & Johansson, Magnus, 2015. "Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2015:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 15 Sep 2016.
    6. Sevcíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E. & Waddell, Paul A., 2011. "Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 540-553, July.
    7. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
    8. Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
    9. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Zhang, Ian & Schmitt, David & Erhardt, Gregory D., 2024. "Are public transit investments based on accurate forecasts? An analysis of the improving trend of transit ridership forecasts in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    10. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter, 2014. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 82-91.
    11. Aguas, Oriana & Bachmann, Chris, 2022. "Assessing the effects of input uncertainties on the outputs of a freight demand model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

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