Assessing greenhouse gas emissions and costs of Brazilian light-duty vehicles

With the growing concern on climate change, many governments are making efforts to substitute fossil-fuel passenger vehicles in order to meet the urgent need for low-carbon and renewable fuels. Electric and hybrid vehicles reflect the increasing interest in clean and energy-efficient options. Nevertheless, the large-scale adoption of full electric is challenged in some regions due to the higher cost of these vehicles. This research presents a framework to assess the total cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three types of technologies currently present in Brazil: fully electric, hybrid, and combustion flex-fuel cars. Brazil's light-duty fleet is a compelling case because it is mainly composed of flex-fuel engine combustion cars. The country also has strong conditions to supply this fleet with ethanol at a large scale with competitive prices. According to our results, full electric can reduce GHG emissions by 85 % if compared to gasoline-powered combustion. Nevertheless, there is a 96 % higher cost per kilometer in comparison to flex-fuel combustion vehicles. Flex-fuel hybrid fueled with ethanol can reduce GHG emissions by 76 %. Combustion flex-fuel vehicles can reduce 59 % of GHG emissions with no additional cost when powered by ethanol. Our findings show that hybrid cars fueled with ethanol are a more cost-viable option for reducing the Brazilian light vehicle fleet carbon footprint in a short time. The methodological approach presented in this study can be replicated in other regions to analyze trade-offs between costs and GHG emissions, thus helping plan the most appropriate path for the light-duty fleet energy transition.