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Reconstructing 10-km-resolution direct normal irradiance dataset through a hybrid algorithm

Author

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  • Wu, Jinyang
  • Niu, Jiayun
  • Qi, Qinghai
  • Gueymard, Christian A.
  • Wang, Lunche
  • Qin, Wenmin
  • Zhou, Zhigao

Abstract

Evaluating, mapping, and monitoring high-quality Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is crucial for the design, financing, and operation of solar power plants, especially those utilizing concentrating technologies. In China, limited number of first-class meteorological stations provide DNI observations. To bridge this gap, this study has reconstructed a comprehensive 41-year (1982–2022) daily DNI dataset for China (CHDNI). This dataset integrated CMA ground-based observations with ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data, employing a spatial resolution of 10 km. The data was processed using the REST2 radiation transfer model combined with Stacking ensemble machine learning. Validation with ground-based measurements indicated that the Stacking model exhibited high and consistent performance. This was evidenced by its sample-based cross-validation results, showing a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.92, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 32.04 W/m2, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 23.68 W/m2, and a global performance indicator of 3.86. Among the four analyzed DNI products (CERES, ERA5, SWGDN, and CHDNI), CHDNI demonstrated the closet alignment with ground observations, evidenced by the least deviation (MAE = 21.67 W/m2 and RMSE = 31.00 W/m2) and the highest R value (0.92). Aerosol optical depth and cloud cover emerged as the primary factors influencing the quality and accuracy of DNI products under clear-sky and total-sky conditions. The spatial distribution of DNI across China is complex, showcasing DNI values ranging from 25.82 W/m2 to 194.22 W/m2, with an average value of 98.08 W/m2 over 41-year. This dataset is a valuable resource for analyzing regional climate change, photovoltaic applications, and solar energy resources assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Jinyang & Niu, Jiayun & Qi, Qinghai & Gueymard, Christian A. & Wang, Lunche & Qin, Wenmin & Zhou, Zhigao, 2024. "Reconstructing 10-km-resolution direct normal irradiance dataset through a hybrid algorithm," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:204:y:2024:i:c:s1364032124005318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2024.114805
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