IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natene/v4y2019i8d10.1038_s41560-019-0412-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of losses in solar energy production from air pollution in China since 1960 using surface radiation data

Author

Listed:
  • Bart Sweerts

    (ETH Zürich
    University of Amsterdam)

  • Stefan Pfenninger

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Su Yang

    (ETH Zürich
    China Meteorological Administration)

  • Doris Folini

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Bob Zwaan

    (University of Amsterdam
    Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (ECN-TNO)
    Johns Hopkins University)

  • Martin Wild

    (ETH Zürich)

Abstract

China is the largest worldwide consumer of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity, with 130 GW of installed capacity as of 2017. China’s PV capacity is expected to reach at least 400 GW by 2030, to provide 10% of its primary energy. However, anthropogenic aerosol emissions and changes in cloud cover affect solar radiation in China. Here, we use observational radiation data from 119 stations across China to show that the PV potential decreased on average by 11–15% between 1960 and 2015. The relationship between observed surface radiation and emissions of sulfur dioxide and black carbon suggests that strict air pollution control measures, combined with reduced fossil fuel consumption, would allow surface radiation to increase. We find that reverting back to 1960s radiation levels in China could yield a 12–13% increase in electricity generation, equivalent to an additional 14 TWh produced with 2016 PV capacities, and 51–74 TWh with the expected 2030 capacities. The corresponding economic benefits could amount to US$1.9 billion in 2016 and US$4.6–6.7 billion in 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Sweerts & Stefan Pfenninger & Su Yang & Doris Folini & Bob Zwaan & Martin Wild, 2019. "Estimation of losses in solar energy production from air pollution in China since 1960 using surface radiation data," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(8), pages 657-663, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:4:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1038_s41560-019-0412-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-019-0412-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-019-0412-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41560-019-0412-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Fa & Wang, Xunming & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Correct and remap solar radiation and photovoltaic power in China based on machine learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    2. Li, Fen & Lin, Yilun & Guo, Jianping & Wang, Yue & Mao, Ling & Cui, Yang & Bai, Yongqing, 2020. "Novel models to estimate hourly diffuse radiation fraction for global radiation based on weather type classification," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1222-1232.
    3. Guo, Junhong & Chen, Zhuo & Meng, Jing & Zheng, Heran & Fan, Yuri & Ji, Ling & Wang, Xiuquan & Liang, Xi, 2024. "Picturing China's photovoltaic energy future: Insights from CMIP6 climate projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    4. Sadat, Seyyed Ali & Hoex, Bram & Pearce, Joshua M., 2022. "A Review of the Effects of Haze on Solar Photovoltaic Performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Huang, Guanghui & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Hengzi, 2020. "Spatial scale effects on retrieval accuracy of surface solar radiation using satellite data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    6. Phuong Minh Khuong & Russell McKenna & Wolf Fichtner, 2020. "A Cost-Effective and Transferable Methodology for Rooftop PV Potential Assessment in Developing Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-46, May.
    7. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Yao, Ling, 2021. "Hierarchical identification of solar radiation zones in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Lu, Chen & Zhou, Xiong & Li, Yongping, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    9. Cheng, Xinghong & Ye, Dong & Shen, Yanbo & Li, Deping & Feng, Jinming, 2022. "Studies on the improvement of modelled solar radiation and the attenuation effect of aerosol using the WRF-Solar model with satellite-based AOD data over north China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 358-365.
    10. Arifa Tanveer & Shihong Zeng & Muhammad Irfan & Rui Peng, 2021. "Do Perceived Risk, Perception of Self-Efficacy, and Openness to Technology Matter for Solar PV Adoption? An Application of the Extended Theory of Planned Behavior," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-24, August.
    11. WenminQin, & Wang, Lunche & Gueymard, Christian A. & Bilal, Muhammad & Lin, Aiwen & Wei, Jing & Zhang, Ming & Yang, Xuefang, 2020. "Constructing a gridded direct normal irradiance dataset in China during 1981–2014," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Zeng, Shihong & Tanveer, Arifa & Fu, Xiaolan & Gu, Yuxiao & Irfan, Muhammad, 2022. "Modeling the influence of critical factors on the adoption of green energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Song, Zhe & Cao, Sunliang & Yang, Hongxing, 2024. "Quantifying the air pollution impacts on solar photovoltaic capacity factors and potential benefits of pollution control for the solar sector in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    14. Abbas, Shahbaz & Techato, Kuaanan & Chiang Hsieh, Lin-Han & Sadeq, Abdellatif M., 2024. "Integrating relational values in social acceptance of photovoltaic energy storage systems: A consumers' perspective assessment using structural equation modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    15. Xiao, Han & Song, Feng & Zheng, Xinye & Chen, Jiaying, 2023. "Community-based energy revolution: An evaluation of China's photovoltaic poverty alleviation Program's economic and social benefits," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    16. Song, Zhe & Liu, Jia & Yang, Hongxing, 2021. "Air pollution and soiling implications for solar photovoltaic power generation: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    17. Kuang-Sheng Liu & Iskandar Muda & Ming-Hung Lin & Ngakan Ketut Acwin Dwijendra & Gaylord Carrillo Caballero & Aníbal Alviz-Meza & Yulineth Cárdenas-Escrocia, 2023. "An Application of Machine Learning to Estimate and Evaluate the Energy Consumption in an Office Room," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:4:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1038_s41560-019-0412-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.