IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i1p150-d194498.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of Direct Horizontal Irradiance in China Using a Physically-Based Model and Machine Learning Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Feiyan Chen

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    School of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, China)

  • Zhigao Zhou

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Aiwen Lin

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Jiqiang Niu

    (School of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, China)

  • Wenmin Qin

    (Laboratory of Critical Zone Evolution, School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Zhong Yang

    (School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)

Abstract

Accurate estimation of direct horizontal irradiance (DHI) is a prerequisite for the design and location of concentrated solar power thermal systems. Previous studies have shown that DHI observation stations are too sparsely distributed to meet requirements, as a result of the high construction and maintenance costs of observation platforms. Satellite retrieval and reanalysis have been widely used for estimating DHI, but their accuracy needs to be further improved. In addition, numerous modelling techniques have been used for this purpose worldwide. In this study, we apply five machine learning methods: back propagation neural networks (BP), general regression neural networks (GRNN), genetic algorithm (Genetic), M5 model tree (M5Tree), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS); and a physically based model, Yang’s hybrid model (YHM). Daily meteorological variables, including air temperature ( T ), relative humidity ( RH ), surface pressure ( SP ), and sunshine duration ( SD ) were obtained from 839 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations in different climatic zones across China and were used as data inputs for the six models. DHI observations at 16 CMA radiation stations were used to validate their accuracy. The results indicate that the capability of M5Tree was superior to BP, GRNN, Genetic, MARS and YHM, with the lowest values of daily root mean square ( RMSE) of 1.989 MJ m −2 day −1 , and the highest correlation coefficient ( R = 0.956), respectively. Then, monthly and annual mean DHI during 1960–2016 were calculated to reveal the spatiotemporal variation of DHI across China, using daily meteorological data based on the M5tree model. The results indicated a significantly decreasing trend with a rate of −0.019 MJ m −2 during 1960–2016, and the monthly and annual DHI values of the Tibetan Plateau are the highest, while whereas the lowest values occur in the southeastern part of the Yunnan−Guizhou Plateau, the Sichuan Basin and most of the southern Yangtze River Basin. The possible causes for spatiotemporal variation of DHI across China were investigated by discussing cloud and aerosol loading.

Suggested Citation

  • Feiyan Chen & Zhigao Zhou & Aiwen Lin & Jiqiang Niu & Wenmin Qin & Zhong Yang, 2019. "Evaluation of Direct Horizontal Irradiance in China Using a Physically-Based Model and Machine Learning Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:150-:d:194498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/1/150/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/1/150/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kambezidis, H.D. & Psiloglou, B.E. & Karagiannis, D. & Dumka, U.C. & Kaskaoutis, D.G., 2016. "Recent improvements of the Meteorological Radiation Model for solar irradiance estimates under all-sky conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-158.
    2. Sun, Honghang & Zhi, Qiang & Wang, Yibo & Yao, Qiang & Su, Jun, 2014. "China’s solar photovoltaic industry development: The status quo, problems and approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 221-230.
    3. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Şahin, Mehmet, 2017. "Forecasting long-term global solar radiation with an ANN algorithm coupled with satellite-derived (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) for regional locations in Queensland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 828-848.
    4. Qin, Wenmin & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Xia, Xiangao & Hu, Bo & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Comparison of deterministic and data-driven models for solar radiation estimation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 579-594.
    5. Wang, Lunche & Gong, Wei & Hu, Bo & Lin, Aiwen & Li, Hui & Zou, Ling, 2015. "Modeling and analysis of the spatiotemporal variations of photosynthetically active radiation in China during 1961–2012," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1019-1032.
    6. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    7. Bertrand, Cédric & Vanderveken, Gilles & Journée, Michel, 2015. "Evaluation of decomposition models of various complexity to estimate the direct solar irradiance over Belgium," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 618-626.
    8. Kambezidis, H.D. & Psiloglou, B.E. & Karagiannis, D. & Dumka, U.C. & Kaskaoutis, D.G., 2017. "Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM v6.1): Improvements in diffuse radiation estimates and a new approach for implementation of cloud products," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 616-637.
    9. Keshtegar, Behrooz & Mert, Cihan & Kisi, Ozgur, 2018. "Comparison of four heuristic regression techniques in solar radiation modeling: Kriging method vs RSM, MARS and M5 model tree," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 330-341.
    10. Chen, Ji-Long & He, Lei & Chen, Qiao & Lv, Ming-Quan & Zhu, Hong-Lin & Wen, Zhao-Fei & Wu, Sheng-Jun, 2019. "Study of monthly mean daily diffuse and direct beam radiation estimation with MODIS atmospheric product," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 221-232.
    11. Ali Rahimikhoob & Maryam Asadi & Mahmood Mashal, 2013. "A Comparison Between Conventional and M5 Model Tree Methods for Converting Pan Evaporation to Reference Evapotranspiration for Semi-Arid Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(14), pages 4815-4826, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heo, Jae & Jung, Jaehoon & Kim, Byungil & Han, SangUk, 2020. "Digital elevation model-based convolutional neural network modeling for searching of high solar energy regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Zhigao Zhou & Aiwen Lin & Lijie He & Lunche Wang, 2022. "Evaluation of Various Tree-Based Ensemble Models for Estimating Solar Energy Resource Potential in Different Climatic Zones of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feng, Lan & Lin, Aiwen & Wang, Lunche & Qin, Wenmin & Gong, Wei, 2018. "Evaluation of sunshine-based models for predicting diffuse solar radiation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 168-182.
    2. Qin, Wenmin & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Xia, Xiangao & Hu, Bo & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Comparison of deterministic and data-driven models for solar radiation estimation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 579-594.
    3. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Zeng, Wenzhi & Wang, Xiukang & Zou, Haiyang, 2019. "Empirical and machine learning models for predicting daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration: A review and case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-212.
    4. Koo, Choongwan & Li, Wenzhuo & Cha, Seung Hyun & Zhang, Shaojie, 2019. "A novel estimation approach for the solar radiation potential with its complex spatial pattern via machine-learning techniques," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 575-592.
    5. Psiloglou, B.E. & Kambezidis, H.D. & Kaskaoutis, D.G. & Karagiannis, D. & Polo, J.M., 2020. "Comparison between MRM simulations, CAMS and PVGIS databases with measured solar radiation components at the Methoni station, Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1372-1391.
    6. Zhou, Zhigao & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Innovative trend analysis of solar radiation in China during 1962–2015," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 675-689.
    7. Jiaojiao Feng & Weizhen Wang & Jing Li, 2018. "An LM-BP Neural Network Approach to Estimate Monthly-Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation Using MODIS Atmospheric Products," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Ali, Mumtaz & Prasad, Ramendra & Xiang, Yong & Deo, Ravinesh C., 2020. "Near real-time significant wave height forecasting with hybridized multiple linear regression algorithms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Lu, Yunbo & Wang, Lunche & Zhu, Canming & Zou, Ling & Zhang, Ming & Feng, Lan & Cao, Qian, 2023. "Predicting surface solar radiation using a hybrid radiative Transfer–Machine learning model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Su, Gang & Zhang, Shuangyang & Hu, Mengru & Yao, Wanxiang & Li, Ziwei & Xi, Yue, 2022. "The modified layer-by-layer weakening solar radiation models based on relative humidity and air quality index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    11. Feng, Yu & Hao, Weiping & Li, Haoru & Cui, Ningbo & Gong, Daozhi & Gao, Lili, 2020. "Machine learning models to quantify and map daily global solar radiation and photovoltaic power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    13. Wang, Lunche & Lu, Yunbo & Zou, Ling & Feng, Lan & Wei, Jing & Qin, Wenmin & Niu, Zigeng, 2019. "Prediction of diffuse solar radiation based on multiple variables in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 151-216.
    14. Liu, Fa & Wang, Xunming & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Correct and remap solar radiation and photovoltaic power in China based on machine learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    15. Bayrakçı, Hilmi Cenk & Demircan, Cihan & Keçebaş, Ali, 2018. "The development of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation on horizontal surface: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2771-2782.
    16. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Ma, Xin & Bai, Hua, 2019. "Evaluation and development of empirical models for estimating daily and monthly mean daily diffuse horizontal solar radiation for different climatic regions of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 168-186.
    17. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Şahin, Mehmet & Adamowski, Jan F. & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Universally deployable extreme learning machines integrated with remotely sensed MODIS satellite predictors over Australia to forecast global solar radiation: A new approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 235-261.
    18. Yeom, Jong-Min & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Adamwoski, Jan F. & Chae, Taebyeong & Kim, Dong-Su & Han, Kyung-Soo & Kim, Do-Yong, 2020. "Exploring solar and wind energy resources in North Korea with COMS MI geostationary satellite data coupled with numerical weather prediction reanalysis variables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    19. Kambezidis, H.D. & Psiloglou, B.E. & Karagiannis, D. & Dumka, U.C. & Kaskaoutis, D.G., 2017. "Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM v6.1): Improvements in diffuse radiation estimates and a new approach for implementation of cloud products," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 616-637.
    20. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2021. "Aerosol transmittance for clear-sky solar irradiance models: Review and validation of an accurate universal parameterization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:150-:d:194498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.