IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v178y2021icp1006-1019.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of physical and machine learning models for estimating solar irradiance and photovoltaic power

Author

Listed:
  • Ramadhan, Raden A.A.
  • Heatubun, Yosca R.J.
  • Tan, Sek F.
  • Lee, Hyun-Jin

Abstract

Conventional models to estimate solar irradiance and photovoltaic power rely on physics and use empirical correlations to handle regional climate and complex physics. Recently, machine learning emerges as an advanced statistical tool to construct more accurate correlations between inputs and outputs. Although machine learning has been applied for modeling solar irradiance and power, no study has reported the accuracy improvement by machine learning compared to conventional physical models. Hence, this study aims to compare the accuracies of physical and machine learning models at each step of solar power modeling, i.e., modeling of global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, global tilted irradiance, and photovoltaic power. Comparison results demonstrated that machine learning models generally outperform physical models when input parameters are appropriately selected. Machine learning models more significantly reduced the mean bias difference (MBD) than the root mean square difference (RMSD). For global horizontal irradiance and photovoltaic power, machine learning models led to substantially unbiased estimations with 0.96% and 0.03% of MBD, respectively. Among machine learning algorithms, long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit were more recommendable. However, the physical model for solar power estimation was more efficient to reduce RMSD because of their ability to consider constant parameters as input.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramadhan, Raden A.A. & Heatubun, Yosca R.J. & Tan, Sek F. & Lee, Hyun-Jin, 2021. "Comparison of physical and machine learning models for estimating solar irradiance and photovoltaic power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1006-1019.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:178:y:2021:i:c:p:1006-1019
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148121009459
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.079?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Munir Husein & Il-Yop Chung, 2019. "Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Microgrids Using a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Despotovic, Milan & Nedic, Vladimir & Despotovic, Danijela & Cvetanovic, Slobodan, 2016. "Evaluation of empirical models for predicting monthly mean horizontal diffuse solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 246-260.
    4. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Lee, Kwanho & Yoo, Hochun & Levermore, Geoff J., 2013. "Quality control and estimation hourly solar irradiation on inclined surfaces in South Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 190-199.
    6. Wen, Lulu & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Lu, Xinhui, 2019. "Optimal load dispatch of community microgrid with deep learning based solar power and load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1053-1065.
    7. Hyun-Jin Lee & Shin-Young Kim & Chang-Yeol Yun, 2017. "Comparison of Solar Radiation Models to Estimate Direct Normal Irradiance for Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Yusen Wang & Wenlong Liao & Yuqing Chang, 2018. "Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Short-Term Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    9. Muhammad Aslam & Jae-Myeong Lee & Hyung-Seung Kim & Seung-Jae Lee & Sugwon Hong, 2019. "Deep Learning Models for Long-Term Solar Radiation Forecasting Considering Microgrid Installation: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Sengupta, Manajit & Xie, Yu & Lopez, Anthony & Habte, Aron & Maclaurin, Galen & Shelby, James, 2018. "The National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 51-60.
    11. Zoubin Ghahramani, 2015. "Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence," Nature, Nature, vol. 521(7553), pages 452-459, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiu, Lihong & Ma, Wentao & Feng, Xiaoyang & Dai, Jiahui & Dong, Yuzhuo & Duan, Jiandong & Chen, Badong, 2024. "A hybrid PV cluster power prediction model using BLS with GMCC and error correction via RVM considering an improved statistical upscaling technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    2. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Sabarathinam Srinivasan & Suresh Kumarasamy & Zacharias E. Andreadakis & Pedro G. Lind, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Models of Power Grids Driven by Renewable Energy Sources: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-56, July.
    4. Tan, Yunhui & Wang, Quan & Zhang, Zhaoyang, 2023. "Near-real-time estimation of global horizontal irradiance from Himawari-8 satellite data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Raihan Kamil & Pranda M. P. Garniwa & Hyunjin Lee, 2021. "Performance Assessment of Global Horizontal Irradiance Models in All-Sky Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, November.
    6. Bo Gu & Xi Li & Fengliang Xu & Xiaopeng Yang & Fayi Wang & Pengzhan Wang, 2023. "Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis of Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Based on WT-CNN-BiLSTM-AM-GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-27, April.
    7. Zhang, Yanyun & Xue, Peng & Zhao, Yifan & Zhang, Qianqian & Bai, Gongxun & Peng, Jinqing & Li, Bojia, 2024. "Spectra measurement and clustering analysis of global horizontal irradiance for solar energy application," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    8. Garniwa, Pranda M.P. & Lee, Hyunjin, 2023. "Intercomparison of the parameterized Linke turbidity factor in deriving global horizontal irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 285-298.
    9. Adnan Aslam & Naseer Ahmed & Safian Ahmed Qureshi & Mohsen Assadi & Naveed Ahmed, 2022. "Advances in Solar PV Systems; A Comprehensive Review of PV Performance, Influencing Factors, and Mitigation Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-52, October.
    10. Konduru Sudharshan & C. Naveen & Pradeep Vishnuram & Damodhara Venkata Siva Krishna Rao Kasagani & Benedetto Nastasi, 2022. "Systematic Review on Impact of Different Irradiance Forecasting Techniques for Solar Energy Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-39, August.
    11. Jinfeng Wang & Wenshan Hu & Lingfeng Xuan & Feiwu He & Chaojie Zhong & Guowei Guo, 2024. "TransPVP: A Transformer-Based Method for Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    2. N. Yogambal Jayalakshmi & R. Shankar & Umashankar Subramaniam & I. Baranilingesan & Alagar Karthick & Balasubramaniam Stalin & Robbi Rahim & Aritra Ghosh, 2021. "Novel Multi-Time Scale Deep Learning Algorithm for Solar Irradiance Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, April.
    3. Raihan Kamil & Pranda M. P. Garniwa & Hyunjin Lee, 2021. "Performance Assessment of Global Horizontal Irradiance Models in All-Sky Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    5. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Jessica Wojtkiewicz & Matin Hosseini & Raju Gottumukkala & Terrence Lynn Chambers, 2019. "Hour-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-13, October.
    7. Musaed Alhussein & Syed Irtaza Haider & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2019. "Microgrid-Level Energy Management Approach Based on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-27, April.
    8. Arash Moradzadeh & Sahar Zakeri & Maryam Shoaran & Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo & Fazel Mohammadi, 2020. "Short-Term Load Forecasting of Microgrid via Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Long Short-Term Memory Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Alfonso Angel Medina-Santana & Leopoldo Eduardo Cárdenas-Barrón, 2022. "Optimal Design of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems Considering Weather Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-28, November.
    10. Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu & Alexandru Pîrjan, 2020. "Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on a Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-31, December.
    11. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Fatma Yaprakdal & M. Berkay Yılmaz & Mustafa Baysal & Amjad Anvari-Moghaddam, 2020. "A Deep Neural Network-Assisted Approach to Enhance Short-Term Optimal Operational Scheduling of a Microgrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-27, February.
    13. Varaha Satra Bharath Kurukuru & Ahteshamul Haque & Mohammed Ali Khan & Subham Sahoo & Azra Malik & Frede Blaabjerg, 2021. "A Review on Artificial Intelligence Applications for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-35, August.
    14. Hoyos-Gómez, Laura S. & Ruiz-Muñoz, Jose F. & Ruiz-Mendoza, Belizza J., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of global solar irradiance in tropical environments with incomplete data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    15. Xue-Bo Jin & Wei-Zhen Zheng & Jian-Lei Kong & Xiao-Yi Wang & Yu-Ting Bai & Ting-Li Su & Seng Lin, 2021. "Deep-Learning Forecasting Method for Electric Power Load via Attention-Based Encoder-Decoder with Bayesian Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Zhiyong Tian & Bengt Perers & Simon Furbo & Jianhua Fan & Jie Deng & Janne Dragsted, 2018. "A Comprehensive Approach for Modelling Horizontal Diffuse Radiation, Direct Normal Irradiance and Total Tilted Solar Radiation Based on Global Radiation under Danish Climate Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Majid Hosseini & Satya Katragadda & Jessica Wojtkiewicz & Raju Gottumukkala & Anthony Maida & Terrence Lynn Chambers, 2020. "Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-15, July.
    18. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    19. du Plessis, A.A. & Strauss, J.M. & Rix, A.J., 2021. "Short-term solar power forecasting: Investigating the ability of deep learning models to capture low-level utility-scale Photovoltaic system behaviour," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    20. Fateh Mehazzem & Maina André & Rudy Calif, 2022. "Efficient Output Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on MPPT Fuzzy Logic Technique and Solar Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Approach in a Tropical Insular Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:178:y:2021:i:c:p:1006-1019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.