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Probabilistic load flow incorporating correlation between time-varying electricity demand and renewable power generation

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  • Abdullah, M.A.
  • Agalgaonkar, A.P.
  • Muttaqi, K.M.

Abstract

The time-varying demand and stochastic power generation from renewable distributed generating resources necessitate an exhaustive assessment of distribution feeder parameters for the purpose of long-term planning. This paper proposes a novel formulation of probabilistic load flow for distribution feeders with high penetration of renewable distributed generation. The dependency between the load demand of different consumer classes and generation from different types of renewable resources is addressed in this study. In order to capture the coincidental variations of demand and generation, associated time series data for the same time instances are used. A transformation matrix based probabilistic load flow is formulated using the method of cumulants. Moreover, Pearson distribution functions are used to estimate the probability distribution of the line flows. The proposed load flow method is tested on a practical distribution feeder with high penetration of solar photovoltaic and wind energy conversion systems. The results demonstrate the aptitude of the proposed method for conducting probabilistic load flow studies with dependent non-Gaussian distribution of load and generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah, M.A. & Agalgaonkar, A.P. & Muttaqi, K.M., 2013. "Probabilistic load flow incorporating correlation between time-varying electricity demand and renewable power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 532-543.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:55:y:2013:i:c:p:532-543
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2013.01.010
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    1. Carpinelli, Guido & Caramia, Pierluigi & Varilone, Pietro, 2015. "Multi-linear Monte Carlo simulation method for probabilistic load flow of distribution systems with wind and photovoltaic generation systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 283-295.
    2. Prusty, B Rajanarayan & Jena, Debashisha, 2017. "A critical review on probabilistic load flow studies in uncertainty constrained power systems with photovoltaic generation and a new approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1286-1302.
    3. Vasilj, J. & Sarajcev, P. & Jakus, D., 2016. "Estimating future balancing power requirements in wind–PV power system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 369-378.
    4. Sansavini, G. & Piccinelli, R. & Golea, L.R. & Zio, E., 2014. "A stochastic framework for uncertainty analysis in electric power transmission systems with wind generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-81.
    5. Arjmand, Reza & Rahimiyan, Morteza, 2016. "Statistical analysis of a competitive day-ahead market coupled with correlated wind production and electric load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 153-167.
    6. Sui Peng & Huixiang Chen & Yong Lin & Tong Shu & Xingyu Lin & Junjie Tang & Wenyuan Li & Weijie Wu, 2019. "Probabilistic Power Flow for Hybrid AC/DC Grids with Ninth-Order Polynomial Normal Transformation and Inherited Latin Hypercube Sampling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Shargh, S. & Khorshid ghazani, B. & Mohammadi-ivatloo, B. & Seyedi, H. & Abapour, M., 2016. "Probabilistic multi-objective optimal power flow considering correlated wind power and load uncertainties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 10-21.
    8. Motlagh, Omid & Paevere, Phillip & Hong, Tang Sai & Grozev, George, 2015. "Analysis of household electricity consumption behaviours: Impact of domestic electricity generation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 270(C), pages 165-178.
    9. Li, Yahui & Sun, Yuanyuan & Wang, Qingyan & Sun, Kaiqi & Li, Ke-Jun & Zhang, Yan, 2023. "Probabilistic harmonic forecasting of the distribution system considering time-varying uncertainties of the distributed energy resources and electrical loads," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    10. Khorsand, Hosein & Seifi, Ali Reza, 2018. "Probabilistic energy flow for multi-carrier energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 989-997.
    11. Prusty, B. Rajanarayan & Jena, Debashisha, 2018. "An over-limit risk assessment of PV integrated power system using probabilistic load flow based on multi-time instant uncertainty modeling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 367-383.

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