IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v235y2024ics096014812401334x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional diversification of hydro, wind, and solar generation potential: A mean-variance model to stabilize power fluctuations in the Brazilian integrated electrical energy transmission and distribution system

Author

Listed:
  • Tapia Carpio, Lucio Guido
  • Cardoso Guimarães, Frederico A.

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the heterogeneity and complementarity of the regional potential for generating hydro, wind, and solar energy to smooth generation variability. A bi-objective mean-variance model is proposed to determine hydro, wind, and solar-generation portfolios that simultaneously maximize interregional average generation and minimize system generation variability, thus increasing the reliability of the system and diversifying energy generation. These portfolios form the so-called efficient frontier, which shows all combinations of hydro, wind, and solar energies that produce the lowest variation for any level of energy generation. The findings demonstrate that, in Brazil, the current regional wind energy generation portfolio is close to the efficient frontier with high variability, the current centralized solar energy generation portfolio is far from the efficient frontier, and the current hydropower power generation portfolio is situated on the efficient frontier with low variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Tapia Carpio, Lucio Guido & Cardoso Guimarães, Frederico A., 2024. "Regional diversification of hydro, wind, and solar generation potential: A mean-variance model to stabilize power fluctuations in the Brazilian integrated electrical energy transmission and distributi," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:235:y:2024:i:c:s096014812401334x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014812401334X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121266?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Jing-Li & Huang, Xi & Shi, Jie & Li, Kai & Cai, Jingwen & Zhang, Xian, 2023. "Complementary potential of wind-solar-hydro power in Chinese provinces: Based on a high temporal resolution multi-objective optimization model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Westphal, Igor, 2024. "The effects of reducing renewable power intermittency through portfolio diversification," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. François, B. & Borga, M. & Creutin, J.D. & Hingray, B. & Raynaud, D. & Sauterleute, J.F., 2016. "Complementarity between solar and hydro power: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics in Northern-Italy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 543-553.
    4. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2023. "How does the Russian-Ukrainian war change connectedness and hedging opportunities? Comparison between dirty and clean energy markets versus global stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Rey-Costa, Elona & Elliston, Ben & Green, Donna & Abramowitz, Gab, 2023. "Firming 100% renewable power: Costs and opportunities in Australia's National Electricity Market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    6. Tapia Carpio, Lucio Guido, 2021. "Mitigating the risk of photovoltaic power generation: A complementarity model of solar irradiation in diverse regions applied to Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Shahriari, Mehdi & Blumsack, Seth, 2018. "The capacity value of optimal wind and solar portfolios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 992-1005.
    8. Pedruzzi, Rizzieri & Silva, Allan Rodrigues & Soares dos Santos, Thalyta & Araujo, Allan Cavalcante & Cotta Weyll, Arthur Lúcide & Lago Kitagawa, Yasmin Kaore & Nunes da Silva Ramos, Diogo & Milani de, 2023. "Review of mapping analysis and complementarity between solar and wind energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    9. Kabir, Elnaz & Srikrishnan, Vivek & Liu, M. Vivienne & Steinschneider, Scott & Anderson, C. Lindsay, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of multi-scale climate variability on electricity prices in a renewable-dominated power grid," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    10. Yu, Bolin & Fang, Debin & Xiao, Kun & Pan, Yuling, 2023. "Drivers of renewable energy penetration and its role in power sector's deep decarbonization towards carbon peak," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Arias, Mauricio E. & Cochrane, Thomas A. & Kummu, Matti & Lauri, Hannu & Holtgrieve, Gordon W. & Koponen, Jorma & Piman, Thanapon, 2014. "Impacts of hydropower and climate change on drivers of ecological productivity of Southeast Asia's most important wetland," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 252-263.
    12. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "Low carbon electricity system for India in 2030 based on multi-objective multi-criteria assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    14. Shahriari, Mehdi & Blumsack, Seth, 2017. "Scaling of wind energy variability over space and time," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 572-585.
    15. Jurasz, Jakub & Beluco, Alexandre & Canales, Fausto A., 2018. "The impact of complementarity on power supply reliability of small scale hybrid energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 737-743.
    16. Ferreira, Miguel Marques & Santos, Júlia Alves & Silva, Lincon Rozendo da & Abrahao, Raphael & Gomes, Flavio da Silva Vitorino & Braz, Helon David Macêdo, 2023. "A new index to evaluate renewable energy potential: A case study on solar, wind and hybrid generation in Northeast Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    17. Pommeret, Aude & Schubert, Katheline, 2022. "Optimal energy transition with variable and intermittent renewable electricity generation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Spelta, Alessandro & De Giuli, Maria Elena, 2023. "Does renewable energy affect fossil fuel price? A time–frequency analysis for the Europe," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 626(C).
    19. Drake, Ben & Hubacek, Klaus, 2007. "What to expect from a greater geographic dispersion of wind farms?--A risk portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3999-4008, August.
    20. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    21. Zhang, Xian & Wang, Jia-Xing & Cao, Zhe & Shen, Shuo & Meng, Shuo & Fan, Jing-Li, 2021. "What is driving the remarkable decline of wind and solar power curtailment in China? Evidence from China and four typical provinces," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 31-42.
    22. de Faria, Victor A.D. & de Queiroz, Anderson R. & DeCarolis, Joseph F., 2022. "Optimizing offshore renewable portfolios under resource variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    23. Hu, Jing & Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Worrell, Ernst, 2019. "Geographical optimization of variable renewable energy capacity in China using modern portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    24. López Prol, Javier & de Llano Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Pfenninger, Stefan & Staffell, Iain, 2024. "Wind-solar technological, spatial and temporal complementarities in Europe: A portfolio approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    25. Xu, Da & Bai, Ziyi & Jin, Xiaolong & Yang, Xiaodong & Chen, Shuangyin & Zhou, Ming, 2022. "A mean-variance portfolio optimization approach for high-renewable energy hub," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    26. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Carmen & Chyong, Chi Kong & Reiner, David M. & Roques, Fabien, 2024. "Taking a Portfolio approach to wind and solar deployment: The case of the National Electricity Market in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    2. Castro, Gabriel Malta & Klöckl, Claude & Regner, Peter & Schmidt, Johannes & Pereira, Amaro Olimpio, 2022. "Improvements to Modern Portfolio Theory based models applied to electricity systems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Lobato, E. & Doenges, K. & Egido, I. & Sigrist, L., 2020. "Limits to wind aggregation: Empirical assessment in the Spanish electricity system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 1321-1330.
    4. Chu, Cheng-Ta & Hawkes, Adam D., 2020. "Optimal mix of climate-related energy in global electricity systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 955-963.
    5. Gabriel Malta Castro & Claude Klockl & Peter Regner & Johannes Schmidt & Amaro Olimpio Pereira Jr, 2021. "Improvements to Modern Portfolio Theory based models applied to electricity systems," Papers 2105.08182, arXiv.org.
    6. López Prol, Javier & de Llano Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Pfenninger, Stefan & Staffell, Iain, 2024. "Wind-solar technological, spatial and temporal complementarities in Europe: A portfolio approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    7. Tapia Carpio, Lucio Guido, 2021. "Mitigating the risk of photovoltaic power generation: A complementarity model of solar irradiation in diverse regions applied to Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Hu, Jing & Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Worrell, Ernst, 2019. "Geographical optimization of variable renewable energy capacity in China using modern portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Álvarez-García, Francisco J. & Fresno-Schmolk, Gonzalo & OrtizBevia, María J. & Cabos, William & RuizdeElvira, Antonio, 2020. "Reduction of aggregate wind power variability using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections: An application in the Iberian Peninsula," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 151-161.
    10. Thomaidis, Nikolaos S. & Christodoulou, Theodoros & Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J., 2023. "Handling the risk dimensions of wind energy generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    11. Zhang, Mingming & Song, Wenwen & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2024. "Optimal investment portfolio strategy for carbon neutrality of power enterprises," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    12. Turkson, Charles & Liu, Wenbin & Acquaye, Adolf, 2024. "A data envelopment analysis based evaluation of sustainable energy generation portfolio scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    13. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    14. M, Jisma & Mohan, Vivek & Thomas, Mini Shaji & Madhu M, Nimal, 2022. "Risk-Calibrated conventional-renewable generation mix using master-slave portfolio approach guided by flexible investor preferencing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    15. Shahriari, Mehdi & Blumsack, Seth, 2018. "The capacity value of optimal wind and solar portfolios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 992-1005.
    16. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    17. Allan, Grant & Eromenko, Igor & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim, 2011. "The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 6-22, January.
    18. Athanasios Zisos & Dimitrios Chatzopoulos & Andreas Efstratiadis, 2024. "The Concept of Spatial Reliability Across Renewable Energy Systems—An Application to Decentralized Solar PV Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Bracken, Cameron & Voisin, Nathalie & Burleyson, Casey D. & Campbell, Allison M. & Hou, Z. Jason & Broman, Daniel, 2024. "Standardized benchmark of historical compound wind and solar energy droughts across the Continental United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    20. Li, Binghui & de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo & DeCarolis, Joseph F. & Bane, John & He, Ruoying & Keeler, Andrew G. & Neary, Vincent S., 2017. "The economics of electricity generation from Gulf Stream currents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 649-658.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:235:y:2024:i:c:s096014812401334x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.