IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v139y2019icp251-260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future changes, or lack thereof, in the temporal variability of the combined wind-plus-solar power production in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Jerez, S.
  • Tobin, I.
  • Turco, M.
  • Jiménez-Guerrero, P.
  • Vautard, R.
  • Montávez, J.P.

Abstract

Here we present the first assessment of climate change impacts on the temporal variability of the joint production of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power across Europe. For that we adopted regional and continental perspectives (assuming a single European electricity grid), considered several temporal frequencies (from daily to annual), used state-of-the-art regional climate projections together with a climate-production model, and assumed a future massive deployment of wind and PV power installations. Results support that the spatio-temporal complementarity between the wind and solar resources helps to minimize the temporal variability of the combined production under both present (1971–2000) and future (2070–2099) climate conditions similarly. Thus the projected changes are overall negligible (well below ±5%). However, an additional assessment of theoretical upper/bottom bounds for these changes indicated significant potential increases in the stability of the joint production ranging from 5 to 25% across regions, 15% at the continental scale. This would be subordinated to the feasibility of reaching, with the future deployment strategies, individual wind and PV power production series with a perfect temporal anticorrelation. These results may encourage stakeholders to take holistically optimized decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerez, S. & Tobin, I. & Turco, M. & Jiménez-Guerrero, P. & Vautard, R. & Montávez, J.P., 2019. "Future changes, or lack thereof, in the temporal variability of the combined wind-plus-solar power production in Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 251-260.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:251-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119302149
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    2. Huber, Matthias & Dimkova, Desislava & Hamacher, Thomas, 2014. "Integration of wind and solar power in Europe: Assessment of flexibility requirements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 236-246.
    3. Jerez, S. & Thais, F. & Tobin, I. & Wild, M. & Colette, A. & Yiou, P. & Vautard, R., 2015. "The CLIMIX model: A tool to create and evaluate spatially-resolved scenarios of photovoltaic and wind power development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Deshmukh, M.K. & Deshmukh, S.S., 2008. "Modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 235-249, January.
    5. S. Jerez & J. M. López-Romero & M. Turco & P. Jiménez-Guerrero & R. Vautard & J. P. Montávez, 2018. "Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    6. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    7. Prasad, Abhnil A. & Taylor, Robert A. & Kay, Merlinde, 2017. "Assessment of solar and wind resource synergy in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 354-367.
    8. Shimon Awerbuch, 2006. "Portfolio-Based Electricity Generation Planning: Policy Implications For Renewables And Energy Security," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 693-710, May.
    9. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    10. Panwar, N.L. & Kaushik, S.C. & Kothari, Surendra, 2011. "Role of renewable energy sources in environmental protection: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 1513-1524, April.
    11. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    12. Bett, Philip E. & Thornton, Hazel E., 2016. "The climatological relationships between wind and solar energy supply in Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 96-110.
    13. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    14. Santos-Alamillos, F.J. & Pozo-Vázquez, D. & Ruiz-Arias, J.A. & Von Bremen, L. & Tovar-Pescador, J., 2015. "Combining wind farms with concentrating solar plants to provide stable renewable power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 539-550.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arkadiusz Piwowar, 2020. "Agricultural Biogas—An Important Element in the Circular and Low-Carbon Development in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-12, April.
    2. Russell McKenna & Stefan Pfenninger & Heidi Heinrichs & Johannes Schmidt & Iain Staffell & Katharina Gruber & Andrea N. Hahmann & Malte Jansen & Michael Klingler & Natascha Landwehr & Xiaoli Guo Lars', 2021. "Reviewing methods and assumptions for high-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy potential assessments," Papers 2103.09781, arXiv.org.
    3. Silva, Ana R. & Pousinho, H.M.I. & Estanqueiro, Ana, 2022. "A multistage stochastic approach for the optimal bidding of variable renewable energy in the day-ahead, intraday and balancing markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    4. Gilmore, Nicholas & Koskinen, Ilpo & van Gennip, Domenique & Paget, Greta & Burr, Patrick A. & Obbard, Edward G. & Daiyan, Rahman & Sproul, Alistair & Kay, Merlinde & Lennon, Alison & Konstantinou, Ge, 2022. "Clean energy futures: An Australian based foresight study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    5. McKenna, Russell & Pfenninger, Stefan & Heinrichs, Heidi & Schmidt, Johannes & Staffell, Iain & Bauer, Christian & Gruber, Katharina & Hahmann, Andrea N. & Jansen, Malte & Klingler, Michael & Landwehr, 2022. "High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments: A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 659-684.
    6. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    7. Wadim Strielkowski & Dalia Streimikiene & Alena Fomina & Elena Semenova, 2019. "Internet of Energy (IoE) and High-Renewables Electricity System Market Design," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Claudia Gutiérrez & Alba de la Vara & Juan Jesús González-Alemán & Miguel Ángel Gaertner, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Photovoltaic Energy Resources in the Canary Islands and Adjacent Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-32, April.
    9. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Stanisław Bielski & Renata Marks-Bielska & Anna Zielińska-Chmielewska & Kęstutis Romaneckas & Egidijus Šarauskis, 2021. "Importance of Agriculture in Creating Energy Security—A Case Study of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    11. Coker, Phil J. & Bloomfield, Hannah C. & Drew, Daniel R. & Brayshaw, David J., 2020. "Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 509-522.
    12. Mehigan, L. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Deane, Paul, 2022. "Batteries and interconnection: Competing or complementary roles in the decarbonisation of the European power system?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1229-1240.
    13. Kapica, Jacek & Jurasz, Jakub & Canales, Fausto A. & Bloomfield, Hannah & Guezgouz, Mohammed & De Felice, Matteo & Zbigniew, Kobus, 2024. "The potential impact of climate change on European renewable energy droughts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    14. Hou, Wenjuan & Zhang, Xueliang & Wu, Maowei & Yuxin Feng, & Yang, Linsheng, 2022. "Integrating stability and complementarity to assess the accommodable generation potential of multiscale solar and wind resources: A case study in a resource-based area in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    15. Ohba, Masamichi & Kanno, Yuki & Bando, Shigeru, 2023. "Effects of meteorological and climatological factors on extremely high residual load and possible future changes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    16. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zappa, William & van den Broek, Machteld, 2018. "Analysing the potential of integrating wind and solar power in Europe using spatial optimisation under various scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1192-1216.
    2. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    3. Alexander Kies & Bruno U. Schyska & Lueder Von Bremen, 2016. "The Demand Side Management Potential to Balance a Highly Renewable European Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Ravestein, P. & van der Schrier, G. & Haarsma, R. & Scheele, R. & van den Broek, M., 2018. "Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 497-508.
    5. António Couto & Ana Estanqueiro, 2020. "Exploring Wind and Solar PV Generation Complementarity to Meet Electricity Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    7. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    8. Vázquez, Rubén & Cabos, William & Nieto-Borge, José Carlos & Gutiérrez, Claudia, 2024. "Complementarity of offshore energy resources on the Spanish coasts: Wind, wave, and photovoltaic energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    9. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    10. Alexis Tantet & Marc Stéfanon & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Silvia Concettini & Anna Cretì & Claudia D’Ambrosio & Dimitri Thomopulos & Peter Tankov, 2019. "e 4 clim 1.0: The Energy for a Climate Integrated Model: Description and Application to Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-37, November.
    11. Monforti, F. & Gaetani, M. & Vignati, E., 2016. "How synchronous is wind energy production among European countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1622-1638.
    12. Chen, Liang, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on wind resources over North America based on NA-CORDEX," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1428-1438.
    13. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    14. Sun, Wei & Harrison, Gareth P., 2019. "Wind-solar complementarity and effective use of distribution network capacity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 89-101.
    15. Koide, Hiroaki & Kurniawan, Ade & Takahashi, Tatsuya & Kawaguchi, Takahiro & Sakai, Hiroki & Sato, Yusuke & Chiu, Justin NW. & Nomura, Takahiro, 2022. "Performance analysis of packed bed latent heat storage system for high-temperature thermal energy storage using pellets composed of micro-encapsulated phase change material," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    16. Avri Eitan, 2021. "Promoting Renewable Energy to Cope with Climate Change—Policy Discourse in Israel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
    17. Pacheco, A. & Gorbeña, E. & Sequeira, C. & Jerez, S., 2017. "An evaluation of offshore wind power production by floatable systems: A case study from SW Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 239-250.
    18. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    19. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    20. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2019. "Assessing Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) Potential Using a CAPM-Analogous Multi-Stage Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:251-260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.