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Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments

Author

Listed:
  • S. Jerez

    (University of Murcia
    Universidade de Lisboa)

  • J. M. López-Romero

    (University of Murcia)

  • M. Turco

    (University of Barcelona)

  • P. Jiménez-Guerrero

    (University of Murcia)

  • R. Vautard

    (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)

  • J. P. Montávez

    (University of Murcia)

Abstract

Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO2, CH4, and N2O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1–2 K century−1, which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Jerez & J. M. López-Romero & M. Turco & P. Jiménez-Guerrero & R. Vautard & J. P. Montávez, 2018. "Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-03527-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03527-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Sawadogo, Windmanagda & Abiodun, Babatunde J. & Okogbue, Emmanuel C., 2020. "Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 263-277.
    2. Jerez, S. & Tobin, I. & Turco, M. & Jiménez-Guerrero, P. & Vautard, R. & Montávez, J.P., 2019. "Future changes, or lack thereof, in the temporal variability of the combined wind-plus-solar power production in Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 251-260.

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