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Real option value over a housing market cycle

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  • Clapp, John M.
  • Eichholtz, Piet
  • Lindenthal, Thies

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the dynamics of house prices are affected by the option to rebuild or enlarge existing dwellings. The nonlinear functional form for option value and zoning limits provides identification of changes in option value over the cycle. For homes with high development potential, our results show that about 40% of the price increases during the boom years after the fall of the Berlin Wall were related to increased option value. In the subsequent bust about 50% of their price decline was associated with decreased option value. For dwellings with low redevelopment potential 12% of the decline in real value can be attributed to changing option value.

Suggested Citation

  • Clapp, John M. & Eichholtz, Piet & Lindenthal, Thies, 2013. "Real option value over a housing market cycle," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 862-874.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:43:y:2013:i:6:p:862-874
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.07.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2018. "Speculative price bubbles in urban housing markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1957-1983.
    2. Johannes Strobel & Binh Nguyen Thanh & Gabriel Lee, 2020. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 345-372, June.
    3. William D. Larson & Justin Contat, 2021. "Transaction Composition and House Price Index Measurement: Evidence from a Repeat-Sales Aggregation Index," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-01, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    4. Shi, Song & Yang, Zan & Tripe, David & Zhang, Huan, 2015. "Uncertainty and new apartment price setting: A real options approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 574-591.
    5. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin, 2022. "Hedonic, residual, and matching methods for residential land valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    6. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    7. Lindenthal, Thies & Eichholtz, Piet & Geltner, David, 2017. "Land assembly in Amsterdam, 1832–2015," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 57-67.
    8. Oguzhan Cepni & Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "The Time-Varying Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Comovement of Regional Housing Prices of the United Kingdom," Working Papers 202168, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Kwabena Mintah, 2018. "Real Options Analysis in Residential Property Development Decision-Making in Australia: Perspective of Executives," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 473-520.
    10. John M. Clapp & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Thies Lindenthal, 2023. "Are Estimates of Rapid Growth in Urban Land Values an Artifact of the Land Residual Model?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 373-421, February.
    11. Michael LaCour-Little & Jing Yang, 2023. "Seeking Alpha in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 319-374, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Redevelopment; Real options; Hedonic model; Segmented equilibrium; Housing cycle; Boom and bust; Nonlinear identification; Zoning limits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N9 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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