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The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States

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  • Davis, Morris A.
  • Larson, William D.
  • Oliner, Stephen D.
  • Shui, Jessica

Abstract

Data from millions of appraisals in 2012–2019 are used to estimate residential land prices, the share of house value attributable to land, and related statistics down to the census-tract level for areas that include the vast majority of U.S. population and single-family housing. The results confirm predictions about land prices from canonical urban models. Over 2012–2019, we show that land prices rose faster than house prices in large metro areas, boosting the land share of house value, while the land share fell in smaller metros. The data are available for download at https://www.fhfa.gov/papers/wp1901.aspx.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:118:y:2021:i:c:p:413-431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.12.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Wentland & Gary Cornwall & Jeremy G. Moulton, 2023. "For What It's Worth: Measuring Land Value in the Era of Big Data and Machine Learning," BEA Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Rutger-Jan Lange & Coen N. Teulings, 2021. "The option value of vacant land: Don't build when demand for housing is booming," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-022/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. William D. Larson & Justin Contat, 2021. "Transaction Composition and House Price Index Measurement: Evidence from a Repeat-Sales Aggregation Index," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-01, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    4. Lange, Rutger-Jan & Teulings, Coen N., 2024. "Irreversible investment under predictable growth: Why land stays vacant when housing demand is booming," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Atsushi Yamagishi & Yasuhiro Sato, 2022. "Measuring Discrimination in Spatial Equilibrium: 100 Years of Japan's Invisible Race," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1188, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. repec:bea:wpaper:0209 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Davis, J. Scott & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Sapci, Ayse, 2022. "Land price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with imperfect substitution in real estate markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Nathaniel Harris & Chuanhao Lin, 2024. "Planning Regulations: Two Tests to Determine if We Have Confused the Cure With the Disease," Working Papers 2024-02, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    9. Titman, Sheridan & Zhu, Guozhong, 2024. "City characteristics, land prices and volatility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Residential land prices for the Irish property market: An initial examination," Papers WP778, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Gabriel S. Lee & Stefanie Braun, 2021. "Agglomeration Spillover Effects in German Land and House Prices at the City and County Levels," Working Papers 207, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    12. Larson, William D. & Shui, Jessica, 2022. "Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    13. Gyourko, Joe & Krimmel, Jacob, 2021. "The impact of local residential land use restrictions on land values across and within single family housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Robert W. Wassmer, 2021. "Do Higher Land Costs for New Single-Family Housing Inhibit Economic Activity in U.S. Metropolitan Areas?," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(4), pages 325-337, November.
    15. Braun, Stefanie & Lee, Gabriel S., 2021. "The prices of residential land in German counties," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin, 2022. "Hedonic, residual, and matching methods for residential land valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    17. Harris, Nathaniel, 2024. "Measuring aggregate land values using individual city land value gradients," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2021. "Urban Structure in Troubled Times: The Evolution of Principal and Secondary Core/Periphery Gaps through the Prism of Residential Land Values," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-12, May.
    19. Camilo Andrés Acosta Mejía, 2021. "The Incidence of Land Use Regulations," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 19223, Universidad EAFIT.
    20. Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2023. "Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 70(2), pages 429-445, April.
    21. Daniel Garcia & Raven S. Molloy, 2023. "Can Measurement Error Explain Slow Productivity Growth in Construction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Murphy, Daniel, 2024. "Housing cycles and gentrification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    23. Larson, William & Yezer, Anthony & Zhao, Weihua, 2022. "Urban planning policies and the cost of living in large cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    24. Clapp, John M. & Lindenthal, Thies, 2022. "Urban land valuation with bundled good and land residual assumptions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    25. John M. Clapp & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Thies Lindenthal, 2023. "Are Estimates of Rapid Growth in Urban Land Values an Artifact of the Land Residual Model?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 373-421, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land prices; Land leverage; Price gradient; Standard urban model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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