Slope displacement reliability analysis considering rock parameters spatial variability subjected to stochastic mainshock-aftershock earthquake

A new and efficient framework for analyzing the stochastic dynamic response and reliability of the rock slope was constructed based on the generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM). The left bank slope of Jinping dam was taken as an illustrative example and the effects of mainshock-aftershock sequence randomness, spatial variability of geotechnical materials and coupled uncertainties on the slope dynamic response and reliability were compared and analyzed for the first time. Firstly, a series of mainshock-aftershock sequences and parameter random fields were generated as stochastic factors inputs. Then, the effectiveness of GPDEM was validated by comparing with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The Newmark slip displacement method was combined with GPDEM to analyze the slope dynamic response and reliability subjected to single and coupled uncertainties from a probabilistic viewpoint. Finally, the fragility curves of three risk levels were established based on the reliabilities with different seismic intensities. The result suggests that parameter spatial variability affects the dynamic response and reliability of the slope to some extent, but this effect will be overshadowed by the uncertainty of mainshock-aftershock sequences when it is considered simultaneously. Besides, aftershocks will cause the decrease of slope reliability and the impact of aftershock cannot be overlooked.