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Seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants considering structural parameter uncertainty

Author

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  • Zhao, Yan-Gang
  • Qin, Miao-Jun
  • Lu, Zhao-Hui
  • Zhang, Long-Wen

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method for seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants (NPPs) considering the uncertainty sources of both ground motions and structural parameters. Based on the conventional seismic fragility model that only contains the uncertainty of ground motions, seismic fragility analysis conditioned on a specific seismic intensity is probabilistically reformulated by further incorporating the uncertainty of structural parameters. To improve the efficiency of the analysis, a point estimation-assisted incremental dynamic analysis was developed for evaluating the seismic fragility model including the uncertainty of structural parameter. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method were demonstrated by a single-degree-of-freedom system, where Monte Carlo simulation method is used for comparison. The seismic fragility based on the finite element model of an AP1000 NPP was analyzed using the proposed method. The results reveal that the safety of NPP structure would be overestimated without considering the uncertainty of structural parameter and the influence of the uncertainty of structural parameters on the seismic fragility of NPP presents an upward trend as the damage level increases. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of different structural parameters reveals that elastic module may have a dominant influence.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Yan-Gang & Qin, Miao-Jun & Lu, Zhao-Hui & Zhang, Long-Wen, 2021. "Seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants considering structural parameter uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021004816
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhao, Yan-Gang & Li, Pei-Pei & Lu, Zhao-Hui, 2018. "Efficient evaluation of structural reliability under imperfect knowledge about probability distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 160-170.
    2. Kwag, Shinyoung & Park, Junhee & Choi, In-Kil, 2020. "Development of efficient complete-sampling-based seismic PSA method for nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Zhou, Taotao & Modarres, Mohammad & Droguett, Enrique López, 2021. "Multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment: A comprehensive survey," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    4. Choe, Do-Eun & Gardoni, Paolo & Rosowsky, David & Haukaas, Terje, 2008. "Probabilistic capacity models and seismic fragility estimates for RC columns subject to corrosion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 383-393.
    5. Borgonovo, E. & Zentner, I. & Pellegri, A. & Tarantola, S. & de Rocquigny, E., 2013. "On the importance of uncertain factors in seismic fragility assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 66-76.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    3. Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Gangolu, Jaswanth & Ramancha, Mukesh K. & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Performance-based probabilistic deflection capacity models and fragility estimation for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Zhang, Qiang & Zhao, Yan-Gang & Kolozvari, Kristijan & Xu, Lei, 2022. "Reliability analysis of reinforced concrete structure against progressive collapse," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    5. Dhulipala, Somayajulu L.N. & Shields, Michael D. & Chakroborty, Promit & Jiang, Wen & Spencer, Benjamin W. & Hales, Jason D. & Labouré, Vincent M. & Prince, Zachary M. & Bolisetti, Chandrakanth & Che, 2022. "Reliability estimation of an advanced nuclear fuel using coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    6. Zheng, Zhi & Tian, Aonan & Pan, Xiaolan & Ji, Duofa & Wang, Yong, 2024. "The damage-based fragility analysis and probabilistic safety assessment of containment under internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Sun, Xiaojun & Feng, Ding & Zhang, Qiang & Lin, Sheng, 2024. "Optimal siting of substations of traction power supply systems considering seismic risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).

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