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Probabilistic assessment and expression of load factor design model for explosive blast loading

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  • Si, Doudou
  • Pan, Zuanfeng
  • Zhang, Haipeng

Abstract

Explosive blast loads are subject to variability and uncertainty, but most current studies of building blast resistance are deterministic. To quantitatively assess the safety and reliability of a structure under explosion, the variability of the blast load needs to be quantified. A probabilistic analysis method of blast loads based on the finite element model and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed, and the applicability of this method was verified. The blast load probability model was developed for the scaled distances range from 1Â m/kg1/3 to 40Â m/kg1/3. The effect of the mass safety factor of 20Â % on the probability of exceeding the design blast load was assessed. At last, based on the established probabilistic model for the blast loads, the expression for calculating the load factor of any reliability level at any location was presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Si, Doudou & Pan, Zuanfeng & Zhang, Haipeng, 2024. "Probabilistic assessment and expression of load factor design model for explosive blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:242:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023007160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qin, Hao & Stewart, Mark G., 2021. "Casualty Risks Induced by Primary Fragmentation Hazards from High-explosive munitions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Gangolu, Jaswanth & Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2023. "Probabilistic demand models and reliability based code calibration for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
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    4. Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Gangolu, Jaswanth & Ramancha, Mukesh K. & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Performance-based probabilistic deflection capacity models and fragility estimation for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    5. Marks, Nicholas A & Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D. & Stirling, Chris G., 2021. "Airblast variability and fatality risks from a VBIED in a complex urban environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
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