IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v235y2023ics0951832023001084.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the operation reliability of aeroengine using Quick Access Recorder flight data

Author

Listed:
  • Pan, Wei-Huang
  • Feng, Yun-Wen
  • Lu, Cheng
  • Liu, Jia-Qi

Abstract

Aeroengine operation reliability (AOR) estimation is important for stakeholders in operating, monitoring, designing, and improving. The Quick Access Recorder (QAR) flight data and failure rate of aeroengine are utilized to analyze AOR. Considering the uncertainty in AOR assessment, a Bayesian neural network (BNN) is trained to evaluate and forecast AOR based on aeroengine status data within a confidence interval. Further, to quantify the degree of each feature on AOR, Shapley Additive ex-Planations (SHAP) values are calculated based on the Light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) to study the degree and direction of influence feature on AOR. In this study, it is revealed that (i) AOR is closely related to the airplane flight stages; and (ii) after training with eight flights and validation with two flights data from QAR data, BNN can achieve AOR analysis and prediction within a certain confidence interval while obtaining aeroengine state data; and (iii) the feature importance and influence direction are quantified by SHAP values, it demonstrates the sensitive factors in AOR analysis. Based QAR data, this study provide an AOR analysis framework to improve the operation and design, which has the potential to support aeroengine real-time status monitoring and health management.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Wei-Huang & Feng, Yun-Wen & Lu, Cheng & Liu, Jia-Qi, 2023. "Analyzing the operation reliability of aeroengine using Quick Access Recorder flight data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:235:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023001084
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023001084
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109193?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Xiaoke & Zhu, Heng & Chen, Zhenzhong & Ming, Wuyi & Cao, Yang & He, Wenbin & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Limit state Kriging modeling for reliability-based design optimization through classification uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    2. Lu, Cheng & Teng, Da & Chen, Jun-Yu & Fei, Cheng-Wei & Keshtegar, Behrooz, 2023. "Adaptive vectorial surrogate modeling framework for multi-objective reliability estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    3. Jia, Xiang & Cheng, Zhijun & Guo, Bo, 2022. "Reliability analysis for system by transmitting, pooling and integrating multi-source data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Zhang, Dongkai & Ding, Chugang & Chen, Ke & Kou, Lei, 2022. "Predicting wind-caused floater intrusion risk for overhead contact lines based on Bayesian neural network with spatiotemporal correlation analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    6. Zhu, Shun-Peng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Peng, Weiwen & Wang, Hai-Kun & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2016. "Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-12.
    7. Sarazin, Gabriel & Morio, Jérôme & Lagnoux, Agnès & Balesdent, Mathieu & Brevault, Loïc, 2021. "Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis in presence of data-driven epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Li, Xiao-Yang & Chen, Wen-Bin & Kang, Rui, 2021. "Performance margin-based reliability analysis for aircraft lock mechanism considering multi-source uncertainties and wear," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Wang, Run-Zi & Gu, Hang-Hang & Zhu, Shun-Peng & Li, Kai-Shang & Wang, Ji & Wang, Xiao-Wei & Hideo, Miura & Zhang, Xian-Cheng & Tu, Shan-Tung, 2022. "A data-driven roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment and its implementation in low-pressure turbine disk at elevated temperatures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jia-Qi, Liu & Yun-Wen, Feng & Cheng, Lu & Wei-Huang, Pan, 2024. "Decomposed-coordinated framework with intelligent extremum network for operational reliability analysis of complex system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Zhang, Ruixing & An, Liqiang & He, Lun & Yang, Xinmeng & Huang, Zenghao, 2024. "Reliability analysis and inverse optimization method for floating wind turbines driven by dual meta-models combining transient-steady responses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    3. Gan, Chenyu & Ding, Shuiting & Qiu, Tian & Liu, Peng & Ma, Qinglin, 2024. "Model-based safety analysis with time resolution (MBSA-TR) method for complex aerothermal–mechanical systems of aero-engines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jia-Qi, Liu & Yun-Wen, Feng & Da, Teng & Jun-Yu, Chen & Cheng, Lu, 2023. "Operational reliability evaluation and analysis framework of civil aircraft complex system based on intelligent extremum machine learning model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Zhang, Ruixing & An, Liqiang & He, Lun & Yang, Xinmeng & Huang, Zenghao, 2024. "Reliability analysis and inverse optimization method for floating wind turbines driven by dual meta-models combining transient-steady responses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    3. Li, He & Guedes Soares, C, 2022. "Assessment of failure rates and reliability of floating offshore wind turbines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Shen, Xingkeng & Feng, Kaixuan & Xu, Heming & Wang, Guangqiang & Zhang, Yishang & Dai, Ying & Yun, Wanying, 2023. "Reliability analysis of bending fatigue life of hydraulic pipeline," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Pan, Yan & Liang, Bin & Yang, Lei & Liu, Houde & Wu, Tonghai & Wang, Shuo, 2024. "Spatial-temporal modeling of oil condition monitoring: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    6. Zhiwei Bai & Hongkui Wei & Yingying Xiao & Shufang Song & Sergei Kucherenko, 2021. "A Vine Copula-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Structures with Multidimensional Dependent Variables," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Meng, Debiao & Yang, Shiyuan & Jesus, Abílio M.P. de & Zhu, Shun-Peng, 2023. "A novel Kriging-model-assisted reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization strategy and its application in the offshore wind turbine tower," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 407-420.
    8. Li, Xiao-Yang & Chen, Wen-Bin & Kang, Rui, 2021. "Performance margin-based reliability analysis for aircraft lock mechanism considering multi-source uncertainties and wear," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Moglen, Rachel L. & Barth, Julius & Gupta, Shagun & Kawai, Eiji & Klise, Katherine & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2023. "A nexus approach to infrastructure resilience planning under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    10. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Liu, Xingyang & Neri, Ferrante & Zhang, Dongkai & Kou, Lei, 2024. "Uncertainty-aware trustworthy weather-driven failure risk predictor for overhead contact lines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    11. Tao, Haohan & Jia, Peng & Wang, Xiangyu & Wang, Liquan, 2024. "Reliability analysis of subsea control module based on dynamic Bayesian network and digital twin," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    12. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Ma, Chaoqun & Zhang, Dongkai & Kou, Lei, 2023. "A data-driven integrated framework for predictive probabilistic risk analytics of overhead contact lines based on dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Liu, Xintian & Mao, Kui & Wang, Xiaolan & Wang, Xu & Wang, Yansong, 2020. "A modified quality loss model of service life prediction for products via wear regularity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    14. Van Huynh, Thu & Tangaramvong, Sawekchai & Do, Bach & Gao, Wei & Limkatanyu, Suchart, 2023. "Sequential most probable point update combining Gaussian process and comprehensive learning PSO for structural reliability-based design optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    15. Zhongzhe Chen & Shuchen Cao & Zijian Mao, 2017. "Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Aircraft Engines Using a Modified Similarity and Supporting Vector Machine (SVM) Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    16. Mohammad Ali Farsi & S. Masood Hosseini, 2019. "Statistical distributions comparison for remaining useful life prediction of components via ANN," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(3), pages 429-436, June.
    17. Okoro, Aghatise & Khan, Faisal & Ahmed, Salim, 2023. "Dependency effect on the reliability-based design optimization of complex offshore structure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    18. Zaitseva, Elena & Levashenko, Vitaly & Rabcan, Jan, 2023. "A new method for analysis of Multi-State systems based on Multi-valued decision diagram under epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    19. Rong Yuan & Debiao Meng & Haiqing Li, 2016. "Multidisciplinary reliability design optimization using an enhanced saddlepoint approximation in the framework of sequential optimization and reliability analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(6), pages 570-578, December.
    20. Bui, Ha & Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Pence, Justin & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "An algorithm for enhancing spatiotemporal resolution of probabilistic risk assessment to address emergent safety concerns in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 405-428.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:235:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023001084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.