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Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

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  • Zhu, Shun-Peng
  • Huang, Hong-Zhong
  • Peng, Weiwen
  • Wang, Hai-Kun
  • Mahadevan, Sankaran

Abstract

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Shun-Peng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Peng, Weiwen & Wang, Hai-Kun & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2016. "Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:146:y:2016:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.10.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Park, Inseok & Amarchinta, Hemanth K. & Grandhi, Ramana V., 2010. "A Bayesian approach for quantification of model uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 777-785.
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    3. Chen, Gaige & Chen, Jinglong & Zi, Yanyang & Miao, Huihui, 2017. "Hyper-parameter optimization based nonlinear multistate deterioration modeling for deterioration level assessment and remaining useful life prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 517-526.
    4. Ahmed Zohair Djeddi & Ahmed Hafaifa & Abdellah Kouzou & Salam Abudura, 2017. "Exploration of reliability algorithms using modified Weibull distribution: application on gas turbine," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(2), pages 1885-1894, November.
    5. Pan, Wei-Huang & Feng, Yun-Wen & Lu, Cheng & Liu, Jia-Qi, 2023. "Analyzing the operation reliability of aeroengine using Quick Access Recorder flight data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
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    10. Li, Xiao-Yang & Chen, Wen-Bin & Kang, Rui, 2021. "Performance margin-based reliability analysis for aircraft lock mechanism considering multi-source uncertainties and wear," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Aizpurua, J.I. & Stewart, B.G. & McArthur, S.D.J. & Penalba, M. & Barrenetxea, M. & Muxika, E. & Ringwood, J.V., 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting informed failure prognostics framework for improved RUL prediction under uncertainty: A transformer case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    12. Jaehyeok Doh, 2023. "Bayesian inference-based prognosis of fatigue damage for MPPO polymer using Zhurkov fatigue life model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(4), pages 636-653, August.
    13. Rong Yuan & Debiao Meng & Haiqing Li, 2016. "Multidisciplinary reliability design optimization using an enhanced saddlepoint approximation in the framework of sequential optimization and reliability analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(6), pages 570-578, December.
    14. Lu, Yaohui & Zheng, Heyan & Zeng, Jing & Chen, Tianli & Wu, Pingbo, 2019. "Fatigue life reliability evaluation in a high-speed train bogie frame using accelerated life and numerical test," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 221-232.
    15. Wei Jiang & Yanhe Xu & Yahui Shan & Han Liu, 2018. "Degradation Tendency Measurement of Aircraft Engines Based on FEEMD Permutation Entropy and Regularized Extreme Learning Machine Using Multi-Sensor Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Xu, Yanwen & Kohtz, Sara & Boakye, Jessica & Gardoni, Paolo & Wang, Pingfeng, 2023. "Physics-informed machine learning for reliability and systems safety applications: State of the art and challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Jia-Qi, Liu & Yun-Wen, Feng & Da, Teng & Jun-Yu, Chen & Cheng, Lu, 2023. "Operational reliability evaluation and analysis framework of civil aircraft complex system based on intelligent extremum machine learning model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    18. Bui, Ha & Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Pence, Justin & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "An algorithm for enhancing spatiotemporal resolution of probabilistic risk assessment to address emergent safety concerns in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 405-428.
    19. Junjie Lu & Feng Lu & Jinquan Huang, 2018. "Performance Estimation and Fault Diagnosis Based on Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm for a Turbofan Engine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    20. Gao, Haifeng & Wang, Anjenq & Zio, Enrico & Bai, Guangchen, 2020. "An integrated reliability approach with improved importance sampling for low-cycle fatigue damage prediction of turbine disks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    21. Zhang, Wei & Li, Xiang & Ma, Hui & Luo, Zhong & Li, Xu, 2021. "Transfer learning using deep representation regularization in remaining useful life prediction across operating conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    22. Wang, Run-Zi & Gu, Hang-Hang & Zhu, Shun-Peng & Li, Kai-Shang & Wang, Ji & Wang, Xiao-Wei & Hideo, Miura & Zhang, Xian-Cheng & Tu, Shan-Tung, 2022. "A data-driven roadmap for creep-fatigue reliability assessment and its implementation in low-pressure turbine disk at elevated temperatures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    23. Xia, Jun & Feng, Yunwen & Teng, Da & Chen, Junyu & Song, Zhicen, 2022. "Distance self-attention network method for remaining useful life estimation of aeroengine with parallel computing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    24. Sun, Bo & Fan, Xuejun & van Driel, Willem & Cui, Chengqiang & Zhang, Guoqi, 2018. "A stochastic process based reliability prediction method for LED driver," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 140-146.

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