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Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

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  • Zhu, Shun-Peng
  • Huang, Hong-Zhong
  • Peng, Weiwen
  • Wang, Hai-Kun
  • Mahadevan, Sankaran

Abstract

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Shun-Peng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Peng, Weiwen & Wang, Hai-Kun & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2016. "Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:146:y:2016:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.10.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Park, Inseok & Amarchinta, Hemanth K. & Grandhi, Ramana V., 2010. "A Bayesian approach for quantification of model uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 777-785.
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