IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v213y2021ics0951832021002829.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical ship domain based on evasive maneuver and perceived collision risk

Author

Listed:
  • Du, Lei
  • Banda, Osiris A. Valdez
  • Huang, Yamin
  • Goerlandt, Floris
  • Kujala, Pentti
  • Zhang, Weibin

Abstract

This paper introduced a new ship domain concept and an analytical framework. The ship domain takes the point of the ship's first evasive maneuver as a basis and correlates it with the navigator-perceived collision risk level. The first evasive maneuver of a ship is detected based on the ship turning point identification and ship intention estimation. The available maneuvering margin (AMM) is utilized as a proxy to measure the perceived collision risk by the navigator. Interpreting the first evasive maneuver in terms of this AMM over a large sample of vessel encounters taken from automatic identification system (AIS) data finally enables an empirical estimation of the size of this ship domain. The method is applied to AIS data in the Northern Baltic Sea, and separate ship domains are constructed for the give-way and stand-on vessels with different maneuverability characteristics. Compared to the existing proximity-based ship domain, this ship domain explicitly incorporates the dynamic nature of the encounter process and the navigator's evasive maneuvers. Several advantages of this proposed ship domain concept and limitations of the presented modeling approach are discussed. Finally, possible future applications are explained, including waterway safety assessment and navigational decision support systems to reduce ship-ship collision risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Lei & Banda, Osiris A. Valdez & Huang, Yamin & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti & Zhang, Weibin, 2021. "An empirical ship domain based on evasive maneuver and perceived collision risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:213:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021002829
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021002829
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107752?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Du, Lei & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2020. "Review and analysis of methods for assessing maritime waterway risk based on non-accident critical events detected from AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Office of Health Economics, 2020. "2019 OHE Annual Report to the Charity Commission," Briefings 002315, Office of Health Economics.
    3. Montewka, Jakub & Hinz, Tomasz & Kujala, Pentti & Matusiak, Jerzy, 2010. "Probability modelling of vessel collisions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(5), pages 573-589.
    4. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2021. "Spatial correlation analysis of near ship collision hotspots with local maritime traffic characteristics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Kujala, P. & Hänninen, M. & Arola, T. & Ylitalo, J., 2009. "Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(8), pages 1349-1357.
    6. Kim, Do-Hoon, 2020. "Human factors influencing the ship operator's perceived risk in the last moment of collision encounter," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    7. Valdez Banda, Osiris A. & Kannos, Sirpa & Goerlandt, Floris & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M. & Bergström, Martin & Kujala, Pentti, 2019. "A systemic hazard analysis and management process for the concept design phase of an autonomous vessel," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Zhang, Mingyang & Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2021. "A Big Data Analytics Method for the Evaluation of Ship - Ship Collision Risk reflecting Hydrometeorological Conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruponen, Pekka & Montewka, Jakub & Tompuri, Markus & Manderbacka, Teemu & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "A framework for onboard assessment and monitoring of flooding risk due to open watertight doors for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Zhang, Mingyang & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "A machine learning method for the evaluation of ship grounding risk in real operational conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Gao, Dawei & Zhu, Yongsheng & Yan, Ke & Soares, C. Guedes, 2024. "Deep learning–based framework for regional risk assessment in a multi–ship encounter situation based on the transformer network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Ruponen, Pekka & Tompuri, Markus & Gil, Mateusz & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    5. Zvyagina, Tatiana & Zvyagin, Petr, 2022. "A model of multi-objective route optimization for a vessel in drifting ice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    6. Mauro, Francesco & Vassalos, Dracos & Paterson, Donald, 2022. "Critical damages identification in a multi-level damage stability assessment framework for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Zhang, Jinfen & Liu, Jiongjiong & Hirdaris, Spyros & Zhang, Mingyang & Tian, Wuliu, 2023. "An interpretable knowledge-based decision support method for ship collision avoidance using AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    8. Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Pengfei & Rong, Hao & Chen, Linying & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2022. "Towards real-time ship collision risk analysis: An improved R-TCR model considering target ship motion uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Gao, Dawei & Zhu, Yongsheng & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Uncertainty modelling and dynamic risk assessment for long-sequence AIS trajectory based on multivariate Gaussian Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    10. Mazurek, J. & Lu, L. & Krata, P. & Montewka, J. & Krata, H. & Kujala, P., 2022. "An updated method identifying collision-prone locations for ships. A case study for oil tankers navigating in the Gulf of Finland," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    11. Gil, Mateusz & Kozioł, Paweł & Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub, 2022. "Know your safety indicator – A determination of merchant vessels Bow Crossing Range based on big data analytics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silveira, P. & Teixeira, A.P. & Figueira, J.R. & Guedes Soares, C., 2021. "A multicriteria outranking approach for ship collision risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    2. Mazurek, J. & Lu, L. & Krata, P. & Montewka, J. & Krata, H. & Kujala, P., 2022. "An updated method identifying collision-prone locations for ships. A case study for oil tankers navigating in the Gulf of Finland," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    5. Zhang, Weibin & Feng, Xinyu & Goerlandt, Floris & Liu, Qing, 2020. "Towards a Convolutional Neural Network model for classifying regional ship collision risk levels for waterway risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Zyczkowski, Marcin & Szlapczynski, Rafal, 2023. "Collision risk-informed weather routing for sailboats," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Gil, Mateusz & Kozioł, Paweł & Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub, 2022. "Know your safety indicator – A determination of merchant vessels Bow Crossing Range based on big data analytics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    8. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2021. "Spatial correlation analysis of near ship collision hotspots with local maritime traffic characteristics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Zhang, Mingyang & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "A machine learning method for the evaluation of ship grounding risk in real operational conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    10. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Loughney, Sean & Wang, Jin & Li, Huanhuan & Ekere, Nduka & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Multi-scale collision risk estimation for maritime traffic in complex port waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    11. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Loughney, Sean & Wang, Jin & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Maritime traffic clustering to capture high-risk multi-ship encounters in complex waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Gao, Dawei & Zhu, Yongsheng & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Uncertainty modelling and dynamic risk assessment for long-sequence AIS trajectory based on multivariate Gaussian Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    13. Zhang, Mingyang & Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2021. "A Big Data Analytics Method for the Evaluation of Ship - Ship Collision Risk reflecting Hydrometeorological Conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. Zhang, Mingyang & Zhang, Di & Fu, Shanshan & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "A predictive analytics method for maritime traffic flow complexity estimation in inland waterways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    15. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Wu, Xiaolie, 2021. "A probabilistic risk approach for the collision detection of multi-ships under spatiotemporal movement uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    16. Carine Dominguez-Péry & Lakshmi Narasimha Raju Vuddaraju & Isabelle Corbett-Etchevers & Rana Tassabehji, 2021. "Reducing maritime accidents in ships by tackling human error: a bibliometric review and research agenda," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, December.
    17. Cai, Mingyou & Zhang, Jinfen & Zhang, Di & Yuan, Xiaoli & Soares, C. Guedes, 2021. "Collision risk analysis on ferry ships in Jiangsu Section of the Yangtze River based on AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    18. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    19. J Montewka & P Krata & F Goerlandt & A Mazaheri & P Kujala, 2011. "Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(3), pages 307-322, September.
    20. Mauro, Francesco & Vassalos, Dracos & Paterson, Donald, 2022. "Critical damages identification in a multi-level damage stability assessment framework for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:213:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021002829. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.