IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v247y2024ics0951832024002102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Loss of load probability for power systems based on renewable sources

Author

Listed:
  • Zou, Yanhua
  • ÄŒepin, Marko

Abstract

An increasing number of small and variable power sources, such as wind and solar power plants, are being integrated into power systems, potentially affecting their reliability. This study was aimed at developing a method for evaluating reliability in terms of the loss of load probability. To this end, an algorithm capable of assessing the expanded role of renewable sources in the power system was established, which could take into account the specific roles and features of wind, solar, and hydro power plants, including pumped storage hydro power plants. Various models were developed and tested to closely emulate real power system behavior. A regional power system was evaluated over multiple years. The results indicated that the reliability of power systems fluctuates with the available capacity of renewable resources. These findings provide a foundation for a more precise specification of power reserves in such systems to prevent excessive reduction in reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Zou, Yanhua & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2024. "Loss of load probability for power systems based on renewable sources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:247:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024002102
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110136?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zheng, Junjun & Okamura, Hiroyuki & Pang, Taoming & Dohi, Tadashi, 2021. "Availability importance measures of components in smart electric power grid systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Stover, Oliver & Karve, Pranav & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2023. "Reliability and risk metrics to assess operational adequacy and flexibility of power grids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Firouzi, Mohsen & Samimi, Abouzar & Salami, Abolfazl, 2022. "Reliability evaluation of a composite power system in the presence of renewable generations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Bulanık, İrem & Devrim, Yilser, 2021. "Reliability based modeling of hybrid solar/wind power system for long term performance assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Maheri, Alireza, 2014. "A critical evaluation of deterministic methods in size optimisation of reliable and cost effective standalone hybrid renewable energy systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 159-174.
    6. Beyza, Jesus & Yusta, Jose M., 2021. "The effects of the high penetration of renewable energies on the reliability and vulnerability of interconnected electric power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    7. Vasylius, Virginijus & Jonaitis, Audrius & Gudžius, Saulius & Kopustinskas, Vytis, 2021. "Multi-period optimal power flow for identification of critical elements in a country scale high voltage power grid," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Jain, Tanmay & Verma, Kusum, 2024. "Reliability based computational model for stochastic unit commitment of a bulk power system integrated with volatile wind power," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    9. Heylen, Evelyn & Deconinck, Geert & Van Hertem, Dirk, 2018. "Review and classification of reliability indicators for power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 554-568.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jain, Tanmay & Verma, Kusum, 2024. "Reliability based computational model for stochastic unit commitment of a bulk power system integrated with volatile wind power," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    2. Zeng, Ying & Huang, Tudi & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2023. "Reliability modeling for power converter in satellite considering periodic phased mission," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Navarro, Jorge, 2022. "A decision theoretic framework for reliability-based optimal wind turbine selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Siripha Junlakarn & Radhanon Diewvilai & Kulyos Audomvongseree, 2022. "Stochastic Modeling of Renewable Energy Sources for Capacity Credit Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-27, July.
    5. Beyza, Jesus & Yusta, Jose M., 2021. "The effects of the high penetration of renewable energies on the reliability and vulnerability of interconnected electric power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Ye, Bin & Yang, Peng & Jiang, Jingjing & Miao, Lixin & Shen, Bo & Li, Ji, 2017. "Feasibility and economic analysis of a renewable energy powered special town in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 40-50.
    7. Mariia Kozlova & Alena Lohrmann, 2021. "Steering Renewable Energy Investments in Favor of Energy System Reliability: A Call for a Hybrid Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Jerzy Andruszkiewicz & Józef Lorenc & Agnieszka Weychan, 2023. "Determination of the Optimal Level of Reactive Power Compensation That Minimizes the Costs of Losses in Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Wang, Bo & Jiang, Ping & Guo, Bo, 2024. "A Bayesian design method for monopropellant engine system reliability qualification test plan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    10. Söder, Lennart & Tómasson, Egill & Estanqueiro, Ana & Flynn, Damian & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Kiviluoma, Juha & Korpås, Magnus & Neau, Emmanuel & Couto, António & Pudjianto, Danny & Strbac, Goran & Burke, 2020. "Review of wind generation within adequacy calculations and capacity markets for different power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. Bo, Yimin & Bao, Minglei & Ding, Yi & Hu, Yishuang, 2024. "A DNN-based reliability evaluation method for multi-state series-parallel systems considering semi-Markov process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    12. Muaddi, Saad & Singh, Chanan, 2022. "Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    13. Stover, Oliver & Karve, Pranav & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2023. "Reliability and risk metrics to assess operational adequacy and flexibility of power grids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    14. Firouzi, Mohsen & Samimi, Abouzar & Salami, Abolfazl, 2022. "Reliability evaluation of a composite power system in the presence of renewable generations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    15. Hossain, Eklas & Roy, Shidhartho & Mohammad, Naeem & Nawar, Nafiu & Dipta, Debopriya Roy, 2021. "Metrics and enhancement strategies for grid resilience and reliability during natural disasters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    16. Jianzu Hu & Yuefeng Wang & Fan Cheng & Hanqing Shi, 2024. "A Long-Term Power Supply Risk Evaluation Method for China Regional Power System Based on Probabilistic Production Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-23, May.
    17. Wang, Chaonan & Wang, Shuli & Xing, Liudong & Guan, Quanlong, 2023. "Efficient performability analysis of dynamic multi-state k-out-of-n: G systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    18. Fang, Xiaoyu & Qu, Jianfeng & Chai, Yi, 2023. "Self-supervised intermittent fault detection for analog circuits guided by prior knowledge," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    19. Salas, V. & Suponthana, W. & Salas, R.A., 2015. "Overview of the off-grid photovoltaic diesel batteries systems with AC loads," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 195-216.
    20. Colla, Martin & Ioannou, Anastasia & Falcone, Gioia, 2020. "Critical review of competitiveness indicators for energy projects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:247:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.