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Selection of Strategy for Large Group Emergency Decision-making based on Risk Measurement

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  • Yin, Xuanpeng
  • Xu, Xuanhua
  • Pan, Bin

Abstract

Different strategies can be applied in large group emergency decision-making, including the voting strategy, the delegation strategy, and the averaging strategy, etc. The choice of decision-making strategy not only affects the efficiency but also the accuracy of decision-making. Based on signal detection theory, a preference representation method for large group emergency decision-making is proposed. Combining the characteristics of the strategies, rules for the fusion of group preferences are presented, and a risk measurement model for large group emergency decision-making is constructed. By comparing the decision-making risk degree of each decision-making strategy under different conditions of group perception information breadth and external environment, the universal rules of large group emergency decision-making strategy selection are obtained. The results revealed that there are comparative advantages among decision-making strategies in specific situations, and that reasonable decision-making strategy selection can effectively control decision-making risk. The results provide a scientific reference and basis for guiding strategy selection in large group emergency decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin, Xuanpeng & Xu, Xuanhua & Pan, Bin, 2021. "Selection of Strategy for Large Group Emergency Decision-making based on Risk Measurement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:208:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107325
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