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Multidimensional risk evaluation of natural gas pipelines based on a multicriteria decision model using visualization tools and statistical tests for global sensitivity analysis

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  • Medeiros, C.P.
  • Alencar, M.H.
  • de Almeida, A.T.

Abstract

Multidimensional risk analysis in pipelines has been addressed in the literature in recent years which has led to a greater understanding of risk in the decision context. A risk assessment model based on different perspectives becomes attractive to decision-makers (DMs) who are responsible for the maintenance of pipelines, and can help to prioritize maintenance efforts, and therefore optimize the use of human financial and other resources. As to the transportation of gas by pipeline, efforts at risk analysis must consider the physical and operational characteristics of the product, failure modes and their consequences, based on each accidental scenario considered. Different parameters are collected and/or estimated in order to produce a recommendation for the DM. Therefore, this paper enhances previous suggestions for a multicriteria decision model that evaluates multidimensional risk by using visualization tools and statistical tests as part of global sensitivity analysis. Simulations are made considering patterns which provide the DM with information about the uncertainty of different groups of parameters for the model. Furthermore, the output of the disturbance can be checked based on Kendall's correlation coefficient. Finally an evaluation can be made graphically of the different rankings of sections, thereby making a more assertive recommendation to the DM.

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  • Medeiros, C.P. & Alencar, M.H. & de Almeida, A.T., 2017. "Multidimensional risk evaluation of natural gas pipelines based on a multicriteria decision model using visualization tools and statistical tests for global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 268-276.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:165:y:2017:i:c:p:268-276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.04.002
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    6. Zhou, Jian-Lan & Yu, Ze-Tai & Xiao, Ren-Bin, 2022. "A large-scale group Success Likelihood Index Method to estimate human error probabilities in the railway driving process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Medeiros, Cristina Pereira & da Silva, Lucas Borges Leal & Alencar, Marcelo Hazin & de Almeida, Adiel Teixeira, 2021. "A new method for managing multidimensional risks in Natural Gas Pipelines based on non-Expected Utility," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

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