IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v162y2017icp122-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Safety margin sensitivity analysis for model selection in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Di Maio, Francesco
  • Picoco, Claudia
  • Zio, Enrico
  • Rychkov, Valentin

Abstract

The safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants makes use of Thermal-Hydraulic codes for the quantification of the safety margins with respect to upper/lower safety thresholds, when postulated accidental scenarios occur. To explicitly treat uncertainties in the safety margins estimates within the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) framework, we resort to the concept of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Margin (DPSM). We propose to add to the framework a sensitivity analysis that calculates how much the Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) code inputs affect the DPSM, in support to the selection of the most proper probabilistic safety assessment method to be used for the problem at hand, between static or dynamic methods (e.g., Event Trees (ETs) or Dynamic ETs (DETs), respectively). Two case studies are considered: firstly a Station Black Out followed by a Seal Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) for a 3-loops Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), whose dynamics is simulated by a MAAP5 model and, secondly, the accidental scenarios that can occur in a U-Tube Steam Generator, whose dynamics is simulated by a SIMULINK model. The results show that the sensitivity analysis performed on the DPSM points out that an ET-based analysis is sufficient in one case, whereas a DET-based analysis is needed for the other case.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Maio, Francesco & Picoco, Claudia & Zio, Enrico & Rychkov, Valentin, 2017. "Safety margin sensitivity analysis for model selection in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 122-138.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:162:y:2017:i:c:p:122-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183201730131X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karanki, Durga Rao & Kim, Tae-Wan & Dang, Vinh N., 2015. "A dynamic event tree informed approach to probabilistic accident sequence modeling: Dynamics and variabilities in medium LOCA," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 78-91.
    2. Di Maio, Francesco & Baronchelli, Samuele & Zio, Enrico, 2014. "Hierarchical differential evolution for minimal cut sets identification: Application to nuclear safety systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 645-652.
    3. Di Maio, Francesco & Rai, Ajit & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "A dynamic probabilistic safety margin characterization approach in support of Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 9-18.
    4. Zio, Enrico & Di Maio, Francesco & Tong, Jiejuan, 2010. "Safety margins confidence estimation for a passive residual heat removal system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(8), pages 828-836.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. París, C. & Queral, C. & Mula, J. & Gómez-Magán, J. & Sánchez-Perea, M. & Meléndez, E. & Gil, J., 2019. "Quantitative risk reduction by means of recovery strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 13-32.
    2. Yan, Rundong & Dunnett, Sarah & Andrews, John, 2023. "A Petri net model-based resilience analysis of nuclear power plants under the threat of natural hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Wang, Wei & Cammi, Antonio & Di Maio, Francesco & Lorenzi, Stefano & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "A Monte Carlo-based exploration framework for identifying components vulnerable to cyber threats in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 24-37.
    4. Francesco, Di Maio & Matteo, Fumagalli & Carlo, Guerini & Federico, Perotti & Enrico, Zio, 2021. "Time-dependent reliability analysis of the reactor building of a nuclear power plant for accounting of its aging and degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Guo, Zehua & Dailey, Ryan & Feng, Tangtao & Zhou, Yukun & Sun, Zhongning & Corradini, Michael L & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of ATF Cr-coated-Zircaloy on BWR in-vessel accident progression during a station blackout," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Francesco Di Maio & Nicola Pedroni & Barnabás Tóth & Luciano Burgazzi & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Reliability Assessment of Passive Safety Systems for Nuclear Energy Applications: State-of-the-Art and Open Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-17, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Wei & Cammi, Antonio & Di Maio, Francesco & Lorenzi, Stefano & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "A Monte Carlo-based exploration framework for identifying components vulnerable to cyber threats in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 24-37.
    2. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Qadrdan, Meysam & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Yang, Zhaoming & Zhang, Jinjun, 2021. "Data-driven reliability assessment method of Integrated Energy Systems based on probabilistic deep learning and Gaussian mixture Model-Hidden Markov Model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 952-970.
    3. Francesco Di Maio & Samuele Baronchelli & Enrico Zio, 2015. "A Computational Framework for Prime Implicants Identification in Noncoherent Dynamic Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 142-156, January.
    4. Dimaio, F. & Scapinello, O. & Zio, E. & Ciarapica, C. & Cincotta, S. & Crivellari, A. & Decarli, L. & Larosa, L., 2021. "Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Karanki, D.R. & Rahman, S. & Dang, V.N. & Zerkak, O., 2017. "Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 91-102.
    6. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Bai, Hua, 2020. "Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Integrated Energy Systems with bi-directional conversion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Matteo Vagnoli & Francesco Di Maio & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(2), pages 185-200, April.
    8. París, C. & Queral, C. & Mula, J. & Gómez-Magán, J. & Sánchez-Perea, M. & Meléndez, E. & Gil, J., 2019. "Quantitative risk reduction by means of recovery strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 13-32.
    9. Kang, Dong Gu, 2020. "Comparison of statistical methods and deterministic sensitivity studies for investigation on the influence of uncertainty parameters: Application to LBLOCA," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    10. Borgonovo, E. & Cappelli, V. & Maccheroni, F. & Marinacci, M., 2018. "Risk analysis and decision theory: A bridge," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 280-293.
    11. Kim, Hyeonmin & Kim, Jung Taek & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2018. "Failure rate updates using condition-based prognostics in probabilistic safety assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 225-233.
    12. Lwin, Khin T. & Qu, Rong & MacCarthy, Bart L., 2017. "Mean-VaR portfolio optimization: A nonparametric approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 751-766.
    13. Mancuso, A. & Compare, M. & Salo, A. & Zio, E., 2017. "Portfolio optimization of safety measures for reducing risks in nuclear systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 20-29.
    14. Francesco, Di Maio & Matteo, Fumagalli & Carlo, Guerini & Federico, Perotti & Enrico, Zio, 2021. "Time-dependent reliability analysis of the reactor building of a nuclear power plant for accounting of its aging and degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    15. Di Maio, Francesco & Bandini, Alessandro & Zio, Enrico & Alberola, Sofia Carlos & Sanchez-Saez, Francisco & Martorell, Sebastián, 2016. "Bootstrapped-ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis of a trace thermal-hydraulic model based on a limited number of PWR large break loca simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 122-134.
    16. Karanki, Durga Rao & Dang, Vinh N., 2016. "Quantification of Dynamic Event Trees – A comparison with event trees for MLOCA scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 19-31.
    17. Taleb-Berrouane, Mohammed & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2020. "Bayesian Stochastic Petri Nets (BSPN) - A new modelling tool for dynamic safety and reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    18. Di Maio, Francesco & Nicola, Giancarlo & Borgonovo, Emanuele & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Invariant methods for an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis of a passive containment cooling system of an AP1000 nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 12-19.
    19. Di Maio, Francesco & Baronchelli, Samuele & Zio, Enrico, 2014. "Hierarchical differential evolution for minimal cut sets identification: Application to nuclear safety systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 645-652.
    20. Santosh B. Rane & Prathamesh R. Potdar & Suraj Rane, 2019. "Accelerated life testing for reliability improvement: a case study on Moulded Case Circuit Breaker (MCCB) mechanism," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(6), pages 1668-1690, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:162:y:2017:i:c:p:122-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.