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Safety margin sensitivity analysis for model selection in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

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  • Di Maio, Francesco
  • Picoco, Claudia
  • Zio, Enrico
  • Rychkov, Valentin

Abstract

The safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants makes use of Thermal-Hydraulic codes for the quantification of the safety margins with respect to upper/lower safety thresholds, when postulated accidental scenarios occur. To explicitly treat uncertainties in the safety margins estimates within the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) framework, we resort to the concept of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Margin (DPSM). We propose to add to the framework a sensitivity analysis that calculates how much the Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) code inputs affect the DPSM, in support to the selection of the most proper probabilistic safety assessment method to be used for the problem at hand, between static or dynamic methods (e.g., Event Trees (ETs) or Dynamic ETs (DETs), respectively). Two case studies are considered: firstly a Station Black Out followed by a Seal Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) for a 3-loops Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), whose dynamics is simulated by a MAAP5 model and, secondly, the accidental scenarios that can occur in a U-Tube Steam Generator, whose dynamics is simulated by a SIMULINK model. The results show that the sensitivity analysis performed on the DPSM points out that an ET-based analysis is sufficient in one case, whereas a DET-based analysis is needed for the other case.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Maio, Francesco & Picoco, Claudia & Zio, Enrico & Rychkov, Valentin, 2017. "Safety margin sensitivity analysis for model selection in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 122-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:162:y:2017:i:c:p:122-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karanki, Durga Rao & Kim, Tae-Wan & Dang, Vinh N., 2015. "A dynamic event tree informed approach to probabilistic accident sequence modeling: Dynamics and variabilities in medium LOCA," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 78-91.
    2. Di Maio, Francesco & Baronchelli, Samuele & Zio, Enrico, 2014. "Hierarchical differential evolution for minimal cut sets identification: Application to nuclear safety systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 645-652.
    3. Di Maio, Francesco & Rai, Ajit & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "A dynamic probabilistic safety margin characterization approach in support of Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 9-18.
    4. Zio, Enrico & Di Maio, Francesco & Tong, Jiejuan, 2010. "Safety margins confidence estimation for a passive residual heat removal system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(8), pages 828-836.
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    Cited by:

    1. París, C. & Queral, C. & Mula, J. & Gómez-Magán, J. & Sánchez-Perea, M. & Meléndez, E. & Gil, J., 2019. "Quantitative risk reduction by means of recovery strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 13-32.
    2. Yan, Rundong & Dunnett, Sarah & Andrews, John, 2023. "A Petri net model-based resilience analysis of nuclear power plants under the threat of natural hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Wang, Wei & Cammi, Antonio & Di Maio, Francesco & Lorenzi, Stefano & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "A Monte Carlo-based exploration framework for identifying components vulnerable to cyber threats in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 24-37.
    4. Francesco, Di Maio & Matteo, Fumagalli & Carlo, Guerini & Federico, Perotti & Enrico, Zio, 2021. "Time-dependent reliability analysis of the reactor building of a nuclear power plant for accounting of its aging and degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Guo, Zehua & Dailey, Ryan & Feng, Tangtao & Zhou, Yukun & Sun, Zhongning & Corradini, Michael L & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of ATF Cr-coated-Zircaloy on BWR in-vessel accident progression during a station blackout," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Francesco Di Maio & Nicola Pedroni & Barnabás Tóth & Luciano Burgazzi & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Reliability Assessment of Passive Safety Systems for Nuclear Energy Applications: State-of-the-Art and Open Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-17, August.

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