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Comparison of statistical methods and deterministic sensitivity studies for investigation on the influence of uncertainty parameters: Application to LBLOCA

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  • Kang, Dong Gu

Abstract

In the BEPU methodology, an identification of uncertainty parameters affecting an accident consequence and an evaluation of their influence are essential tasks. In this study, the BEPU calculations for APR-1400 LBLOCA were conducted with considering 18 uncertainty parameters. Based on these calculation results, the influence of uncertainty parameters on the blowdown and reflood PCTs was evaluated statistically by applying a correlation analysis and a multiple linear regression analysis, and the comparisons with the results of deterministic sensitivity studies were made. In the statistical evaluation, the important uncertainty variables were identified by a hypothesis test, and their ranking was determined through correlation coefficients and standardized regression coefficients. As a result, the correlation analysis showed a limitation in identifying the important uncertainty parameters to both blowdown and reflood PCTs. On the other hand, the multiple linear regression analysis provided good results in identifying and evaluating influential variables for the blowdown PCT. For the reflood PCT, it showed somewhat different results to those of the deterministic sensitivity studies. However, considering the fact that this discrepancy is mainly caused by an inherent perturbation characteristic of the reflood PCT, it could be concluded that the multiple linear regression analysis provided sufficiently reasonable assessment results.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang, Dong Gu, 2020. "Comparison of statistical methods and deterministic sensitivity studies for investigation on the influence of uncertainty parameters: Application to LBLOCA," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:203:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305834
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107082
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