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Failure rate updates using condition-based prognostics in probabilistic safety assessments

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  • Kim, Hyeonmin
  • Kim, Jung Taek
  • Heo, Gyunyoung

Abstract

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) performs a key role in the safety assessment of nuclear power plants. In this study, in order to further utilize PSA, a new methodology was developed by incorporating the idea of condition-based prognostics to analyze plant-specific aging effects. In conventional PSA, aging effects are usually excluded because they are considered in separate aging management programs. Although aging effects are reflected, their quantification is generally conducted using generic data. Condition-based prognostics utilizes plant-specific data from condition-monitoring systems and quantifies prediction uncertainties. As a case study, the initiating event frequency of a steam generator tube rupture was demonstrated to show the update process by reflecting crack observation in the steam generator tubes and the effects of its maintenance. Furthermore, the variation to the total core damage frequency was also calculated by considering the availability of safety systems according to maintenance status, which reverts a system to its original state before aging effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Hyeonmin & Kim, Jung Taek & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2018. "Failure rate updates using condition-based prognostics in probabilistic safety assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 225-233.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:175:y:2018:i:c:p:225-233
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.022
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    2. Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba & Di Maio, Francesco & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "Condition-based probabilistic safety assessment for maintenance decision making regarding a nuclear power plant steam generator undergoing multiple degradation mechanisms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Li, Rui & Verhagen, Wim J.C. & Curran, Richard, 2020. "A systematic methodology for Prognostic and Health Management system architecture definition," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Moradi, Ramin & Groth, Katrina M., 2020. "Modernizing risk assessment: A systematic integration of PRA and PHM techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. D'Urso, Diego & Chiacchio, Ferdinando & Cavalieri, Salvatore & Gambadoro, Salvatore & Khodayee, Soheyl Moheb, 2024. "Predictive maintenance of standalone steel industrial components powered by a dynamic reliability digital twin model with artificial intelligence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    6. Hanna Hrinchenko & Viktor Koval & Nadiia Shmygol & Oleksandr Sydorov & Oksana Tsimoshynska & Dominika Matuszewska, 2023. "Approaches to Sustainable Energy Management in Ensuring Safety of Power Equipment Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Mandelli, Diego & Wang, Congjian & Agarwal, Vivek & Lin, Linyu & Manjunatha, Koushik A., 2024. "Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    8. Martón, I. & Sánchez, A.I. & Carlos, S. & Mullor, R. & Martorell, S., 2023. "Prognosis of wear-out effect on of safety equipment reliability for nuclear power plants long-term safe operation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    9. Xing, Jinduo & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "A framework for dynamic risk assessment with condition monitoring data and inspection data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Metrics for evaluating the performance of complex engineering system health monitoring models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Xing, Jinduo & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Joint optimization of safety barriers for enhancing business continuity of nuclear power plants against steam generator tube ruptures accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    12. Jagtap, Hanumant P. & Bewoor, Anand K. & Kumar, Ravinder & Ahmadi, Mohammad Hossein & Chen, Lingen, 2020. "Performance analysis and availability optimization to improve maintenance schedule for the turbo-generator subsystem of a thermal power plant using particle swarm optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    13. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "A comparison of DBN model performance in SIPPRA health monitoring based on different data stream discretization methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    14. Kowal, Karol, 2022. "Lifetime reliability and availability simulation for the electrical system of HTTR coupled to the electricity-hydrogen cogeneration plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

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