IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v232y2018i2p185-200.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Vagnoli
  • Francesco Di Maio
  • Enrico Zio

Abstract

Climate change affects technical systems, structures and infrastructures, changing the environmental context for which systems, structures and infrastructure were originally designed. In order to prevent any risk growth beyond acceptable levels, the climate change effects must be accounted for into risk assessment models. Climate models can provide future climate data, such as air temperature and pressure. However, the reliability of climate models is a major concern due to the uncertainty in the temperature and pressure future projections. In this work, we consider five climate change models (individually unable to accurately provide historical recorded temperatures and, thus, also future projections) and ensemble their projections for integration in a probabilistic safety assessment, conditional on climate projections. As case study, we consider the passive containment cooling system of two AP1000 nuclear power plants. Results provided by the different ensembles are compared. Finally, a risk-based classification approach is performed to identify critical future temperatures, which may lead to passive containment cooling system risks beyond acceptable levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Vagnoli & Francesco Di Maio & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(2), pages 185-200, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:232:y:2018:i:2:p:185-200
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X17734946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X17734946
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1748006X17734946?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enrique López Droguett & Ali Mosleh, 2014. "Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 252-270, February.
    2. Kopytko, Natalie & Perkins, John, 2011. "Climate change, nuclear power, and the adaptation-mitigation dilemma," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 318-333, January.
    3. Kristin Linnerud & Torben K. Mideksa & Gunnar S. Eskeland, 2011. "The Impact of Climate Change on Nuclear Power Supply," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-168.
    4. Di Maio, Francesco & Bandini, Alessandro & Zio, Enrico & Alberola, Sofia Carlos & Sanchez-Saez, Francisco & Martorell, Sebastián, 2016. "Bootstrapped-ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis of a trace thermal-hydraulic model based on a limited number of PWR large break loca simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 122-134.
    5. Pourgol-Mohamad, Mohammad & Mosleh, Ali & Modarres, Mohammad, 2010. "Methodology for the use of experimental data to enhance model output uncertainty assessment in thermal hydraulics codes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 77-86.
    6. Markku Rummukainen, 2013. "Climate change: changing means and changing extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(1), pages 3-13, November.
    7. Sameer Al-Dahidi & Francesco Di Maio & Piero Baraldi & Enrico Zio, 2017. "A locally adaptive ensemble approach for data-driven prognostics of heterogeneous fleets," Post-Print hal-01652222, HAL.
    8. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    9. Barry Anderson & Emanuele Borgonovo & Marzio Galeotti & Roberto Roson, 2014. "Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Be of Help?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 271-293, February.
    10. Piero Baraldi & Enrico Zio, 2010. "A Comparison Between Probabilistic and Dempster‐Shafer Theory Approaches to Model Uncertainty Analysis in the Performance Assessment of Radioactive Waste Repositories," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(7), pages 1139-1156, July.
    11. Piero Baraldi & Enrico Zio, 2008. "A Combined Monte Carlo and Possibilistic Approach to Uncertainty Propagation in Event Tree Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1309-1326, October.
    12. Zio, Enrico & Di Maio, Francesco & Tong, Jiejuan, 2010. "Safety margins confidence estimation for a passive residual heat removal system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(8), pages 828-836.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Di Maio & Nicola Pedroni & Barnabás Tóth & Luciano Burgazzi & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Reliability Assessment of Passive Safety Systems for Nuclear Energy Applications: State-of-the-Art and Open Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-17, August.
    2. SarahM. Jordaan & Afreen Siddiqi & William Kakenmaster & AliceC. Hill, 2019. "The Climate Vulnerabilities of Global Nuclear Power," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 19(4), pages 3-13, November.
    3. Wang, Wei & Cammi, Antonio & Di Maio, Francesco & Lorenzi, Stefano & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "A Monte Carlo-based exploration framework for identifying components vulnerable to cyber threats in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 24-37.
    4. Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas & Saad S.H. Al‐jibouri & Johannes I.M. Halman & Frits A. van Tol, 2013. "Capturing and Integrating Knowledge for Managing Risks in Tunnel Works," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 92-108, January.
    5. Enrique López Droguett & Ali Mosleh, 2014. "Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 252-270, February.
    6. Grant R. McDermott & Øivind A. Nilse, 2014. "Electricity Prices, River Temperatures, and Cooling Water Scarcity," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 131-148.
    7. Sanchez-Saez, F. & Sánchez, A.I. & Villanueva, J.F. & Carlos, S. & Martorell, S., 2018. "Uncertainty analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident in a pressurized water reactor using non-parametric methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 19-28.
    8. Jeong, Minsoo & You, Jung S., 2022. "Estimating the economic costs of nuclear power plant outages in a regulated market using a latent factor model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Dirk Rübbelke & Stefan Vögele, 2013. "Short-term distributional consequences of climate change impacts on the power sector: who gains and who loses?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 191-206, January.
    10. Bogmans, Christian W.J. & Dijkema, Gerard P.J. & van Vliet, Michelle T.H., 2017. "Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Torben Mideksa & Bjørn Samset, 2015. "Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1511-1527, December.
    12. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    14. Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2012. "Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of A Combined Cycle Power Plant," ADB Reports RPT124612, Asian Development Bank (ADB), revised 04 Feb 2014.
    15. S. Cucurachi & E. Borgonovo & R. Heijungs, 2016. "A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 357-377, February.
    16. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    17. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    18. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    19. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:232:y:2018:i:2:p:185-200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.