IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v160y2017icp21-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System dynamic reliability assessment and failure prognostics

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Jie
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

Traditionally, equipment reliability assessment is based on failure data from a population of similar equipment, somewhat giving an average description of the reliability performance of an equipment, not capturing the specificity of the individual equipment. Monitored degradation data of the equipment can be used to specify its behavior, rendering dynamic the reliability assessment and the failure prognostics of the equipment, as shown in some recent literature. In this paper, dynamic reliability assessment and failure prognostics with noisy monitored data are developed for a system composed of dependent components. Parallel Monte Carlo simulation and recursive Bayesian method are integrated in the proposed modelling framework to assess the reliability and to predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system. The main contribution of the paper is to propose a framework to estimate the degradation state of a system composed of dependent degradation components whose conditions are monitored (even without knowing the initial system degradation state) and to dynamically assess the system risk and RUL. As case study, a subsystem of the residual heat removal system of a nuclear power plant is considered. The results shows the significance of the proposed method for tailored reliability assessment and failure prognostics.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Jie & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "System dynamic reliability assessment and failure prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 21-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:160:y:2017:i:c:p:21-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832016309383
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2016.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shin, Jinsoo & Son, Hanseong & Khalil ur, Rahman & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2015. "Development of a cyber security risk model using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 208-217.
    2. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Chen, Mao-Yin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2013. "A degradation path-dependent approach for remaining useful life estimation with an exact and closed-form solution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 53-66.
    3. Keedy, Elias & Feng, Qianmei, 2012. "A physics-of-failure based reliability and maintenance modeling framework for stent deployment and operation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 94-101.
    4. Liu, Bin & Xu, Zhengguo & Xie, Min & Kuo, Way, 2014. "A value-based preventive maintenance policy for multi-component system with continuously degrading components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 83-89.
    5. Ramin Moghaddass & Ming J Zuo & Yu Liu & Hong-zhong Huang, 2015. "Predictive analytics using a nonhomogeneous semi-Markov model and inspection data," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 505-520, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jing & Stones, Rebecca J. & Wang, Gang & Liu, Xiaoguang & Li, Zhongwei & Xu, Ming, 2017. "Hard drive failure prediction using Decision Trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 55-65.
    2. Li, Rui & Verhagen, Wim J.C. & Curran, Richard, 2020. "A systematic methodology for Prognostic and Health Management system architecture definition," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Moradi, Ramin & Groth, Katrina M., 2020. "Modernizing risk assessment: A systematic integration of PRA and PHM techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Arcos Jiménez, Alfredo & Gómez Muñoz, Carlos Quiterio & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro, 2019. "Dirt and mud detection and diagnosis on a wind turbine blade employing guided waves and supervised learning classifiers," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 2-12.
    5. Xiangqin Hou & Yihuan Wang & Peng Zhang & Guojin Qin, 2019. "Non-Probabilistic Time-Varying Reliability-Based Analysis of Corroded Pipelines Considering the Interaction of Multiple Uncertainty Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Dong, Zhe & Li, Bowen & Li, Junyi & Huang, Xiaojin & Zhang, Zuoyi, 2022. "Online reliability assessment of energy systems based on a high-order extended-state-observer with application to nuclear reactors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Chiacchio, Ferdinando & Iacono, Alessandra & Compagno, Lucio & D'Urso, Diego, 2020. "A general framework for dependability modelling coupling discrete-event and time-driven simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    8. Kim, Hyeonmin & Kim, Jung Taek & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2018. "Failure rate updates using condition-based prognostics in probabilistic safety assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 225-233.
    9. Zio, Enrico, 2022. "Prognostics and Health Management (PHM): Where are we and where do we (need to) go in theory and practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    10. Xing, Jinduo & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "A framework for dynamic risk assessment with condition monitoring data and inspection data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Metrics for evaluating the performance of complex engineering system health monitoring models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    12. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "A comparison of DBN model performance in SIPPRA health monitoring based on different data stream discretization methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tao, Tao & Zio, Enrico & Zhao, Wei, 2018. "A novel support vector regression method for online reliability prediction under multi-state varying operating conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 35-49.
    2. Wei, Jingwen & Chen, Chunlin, 2021. "A multi-timescale framework for state monitoring and lifetime prognosis of lithium-ion batteries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Abdollahzadeh, Hadi & Atashgar, Karim & Abbasi, Morteza, 2016. "Multi-objective opportunistic maintenance optimization of a wind farm considering limited number of maintenance groups," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 247-261.
    4. Lin, Yan-Hui & Li, Yan-Fu & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "A comparison between Monte Carlo simulation and finite-volume scheme for reliability assessment of multi-state physics systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Zhengxin Zhang & Xiaosheng Si & Changhua Hu & Xiangyu Kong, 2015. "Degradation modeling–based remaining useful life estimation: A review on approaches for systems with heterogeneity," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(4), pages 343-355, August.
    6. Monzer, Mohamad-Houssein & Beydoun, Kamal & Ghaith, Alaa & Flaus, Jean-Marie, 2022. "Model-based IDS design for ICSs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    7. Tianyu Liu & Zhengqiang Pan & Quan Sun & Jing Feng & Yanzhen Tang, 2017. "Residual useful life estimation for products with two performance characteristics based on a bivariate Wiener process," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(1), pages 69-80, February.
    8. Kim, Hee Eun & Son, Han Seong & Kim, Jonghyun & Kang, Hyun Gook, 2017. "Systematic development of scenarios caused by cyber-attack-induced human errors in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 290-301.
    9. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    10. Jin, Guang & Matthews, David E. & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2013. "A Bayesian framework for on-line degradation assessment and residual life prediction of secondary batteries inspacecraft," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 7-20.
    11. Xiaodong Xu & Chuanqiang Yu & Shengjin Tang & Xiaoyan Sun & Xiaosheng Si & Lifeng Wu, 2019. "Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Wiener Processes with Considering the Relaxation Effect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
    12. Liu, Bin & Liang, Zhenglin & Parlikad, Ajith Kumar & Xie, Min & Kuo, Way, 2017. "Condition-based maintenance for systems with aging and cumulative damage based on proportional hazards model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 200-209.
    13. Liu, Bin & Wu, Shaomin & Xie, Min & Kuo, Way, 2017. "A condition-based maintenance policy for degrading systems with age- and state-dependent operating cost," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(3), pages 879-887.
    14. Hai-Kun Wang & Yan-Feng Li & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Remaining useful life estimation under degradation and shock damage," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(3), pages 200-208, June.
    15. Zhu, Xiaoyan & Chen, Zhiqiang & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2021. "Remaining-useful-lifetime and system-remaining-profit based importance measures for decisions on preventive maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    16. Konstantinos Ntafloukas & Liliana Pasquale & Beatriz Martinez-Pastor & Daniel P. McCrum, 2023. "A Vulnerability Assessment Approach for Transportation Networks Subjected to Cyber–Physical Attacks," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, February.
    17. Chen, Rentong & Zhang, Chao & Wang, Shaoping & Zio, Enrico & Dui, Hongyan & Zhang, Yadong, 2023. "Importance measures for critical components in complex system based on Copula Hierarchical Bayesian Network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    18. Dui, Hongyan & Liu, Meng & Song, Jiaying & Wu, Shaomin, 2023. "Importance measure-based resilience management: Review, methodology and perspectives on maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    19. Khorasgani, Hamed & Biswas, Gautam & Sankararaman, Shankar, 2016. "Methodologies for system-level remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 8-18.
    20. Jiang, Shan & Li, Yan-Fu, 2021. "Dynamic Reliability Assessment of Multi-cracked Structure under Fatigue Loading via Multi-State Physics Model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:160:y:2017:i:c:p:21-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.