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Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case

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  • Dundulis, Gintautas
  • ŽutautaitÄ—, Inga
  • Janulionis, Remigijus
  • UÅ¡puras, Eugenijus
  • RimkeviÄ ius, Sigitas
  • Eid, Mohamed

Abstract

In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Dundulis, Gintautas & ŽutautaitÄ—, Inga & Janulionis, Remigijus & UÅ¡puras, Eugenijus & RimkeviÄ ius, Sigitas & Eid, Mohamed, 2016. "Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 195-202.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:156:y:2016:i:c:p:195-202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.003
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    4. Gerbec, Marko, 2010. "A reliability analysis of a natural-gas pressure-regulating installation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1154-1163.
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    Cited by:

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    13. Medeiros, Cristina Pereira & da Silva, Lucas Borges Leal & Alencar, Marcelo Hazin & de Almeida, Adiel Teixeira, 2021. "A new method for managing multidimensional risks in Natural Gas Pipelines based on non-Expected Utility," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
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