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Integrated assessment of failure probability of the district heating network

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  • ValinÄ ius, Mindaugas
  • ŽutautaitÄ—, Inga
  • Dundulis, Gintautas
  • RimkeviÄ ius, Sigitas
  • Janulionis, Remigijus
  • Bakas, Rimantas

Abstract

The aim of the research presented in this paper is the assessment of failure probability of the district heating network piping. The applied methodology for assessment of failure probability of the piping network energy systems includes three types of analyses: probabilistic mathematical, deterministic thermal-hydraulic and integrated deterministic–probabilistic structural integrity analyses. The analysis of Kaunas (Lithuania) district heating (DH) network was performed. First of all, the statistical analysis was performed and the piping with the highest failure rate was determined. The thermal-hydraulic analysis was performed and loads for deterministic–probabilistic structural analysis were calculated for the selected part of DH network. The integrated deterministic–probabilistic structural integrity analysis was performed in two steps—general structural integrity evaluation and probabilistic analysis of chosen piping part. Finally, the probabilistic mathematical method was applied for the integrated assessment of failure probability of the DH network piping. This method takes into consideration statistical information about Kaunas DH piping failure data, system structure, and pipe failure probability received by integrated deterministic–probabilistic structural integrity analysis.

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  • ValinÄ ius, Mindaugas & ŽutautaitÄ—, Inga & Dundulis, Gintautas & RimkeviÄ ius, Sigitas & Janulionis, Remigijus & Bakas, Rimantas, 2015. "Integrated assessment of failure probability of the district heating network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 314-322.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:133:y:2015:i:c:p:314-322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.09.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Badami, Marco & Fonti, Antonio & Carpignano, Andrea & Grosso, Daniele, 2018. "Design of district heating networks through an integrated thermo-fluid dynamics and reliability modelling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 826-838.
    3. Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Enayatifar, Rasul & Hanan Abdullah, Abdul & Marković, Dušan & Lee, Malrey & Ahmad, Rodina, 2015. "Heat load prediction in district heating systems with adaptive neuro-fuzzy method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 760-767.
    4. Bistouni, Fathollah & Jahanshahi, Mohsen, 2015. "Evaluating failure rate of fault-tolerant multistage interconnection networks using Weibull life distribution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 128-146.
    5. Michael-Allan Millar & Neil M. Burnside & Zhibin Yu, 2019. "District Heating Challenges for the UK," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Guelpa, Elisa & Verda, Vittorio, 2018. "Model for optimal malfunction management in extended district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 519-530.
    7. Shan, Xiaofang & Wang, Peng & Lu, Weizhen, 2017. "The reliability and availability evaluation of repairable district heating networks under changeable external conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 686-695.
    8. Hast, Aira & Syri, Sanna & Lekavičius, Vidas & Galinis, Arvydas, 2018. "District heating in cities as a part of low-carbon energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 627-639.
    9. Dundulis, Gintautas & ŽutautaitÄ—, Inga & Janulionis, Remigijus & UÅ¡puras, Eugenijus & RimkeviÄ ius, Sigitas & Eid, Mohamed, 2016. "Integrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data: Natural gas pipeline case," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 195-202.
    10. Postnikov, Ivan & Stennikov, Valery & Mednikova, Ekaterina & Penkovskii, Andrey, 2018. "Methodology for optimization of component reliability of heat supply systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 365-374.
    11. Mortensen, Lasse Kappel & Shaker, Hamid Reza & Veje, Christian T., 2022. "Relative fault vulnerability prediction for energy distribution networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).

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