IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v369y2024ics0306261924008869.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Securing heat-supply against seismic risks: A two-staged framework for assessing vulnerability and economic impacts in district heating networks

Author

Listed:
  • Mao, Ding
  • Wang, Peng
  • Fang, Yi-Ping
  • Ni, Long

Abstract

Urban infrastructure, particularly district heating networks (DHNs), faces a significant threat from natural disasters such as earthquakes, which can result in extensive damage and disruptions. This study focuses on DHNs' vulnerability assessment to seismic hazards, considering both their physical integrity and operational resilience. Our proposed two-staged vulnerability analysis framework provides a comprehensive evaluation of the seismic impact on DHNs, identifying critical factors that contribute to the seismic resilience of these networks. The first phase of the framework generates customized failure scenarios for seismic zones using two methods: the Two-Tier Random Sampling Method (TTRS) and the Integrated Failure Probability Method (IPRS). IPRS directly calculates the integrated failure probability for heating pipes in known seismic zones, thereby reducing the need for extensive random sampling required by TTRS. The second stage of the analysis assesses DHNs' vulnerability using an advanced stochastic repair time model. This model incorporates factors such as repair-crew productivity, lifeline interactions, and resource constraints, enabling an assessment of economic losses resulting from earthquake-induced heating failures. It also examines topological and functional losses, providing a holistic understanding of DHNs' vulnerability. Validation of the proposed framework using a real-case DHN in China, located near a seismic zone, underscores its efficacy. Seismic magnitude is a key factor affecting DHNs' vulnerability, especially when it's <6.0, while the seismic epicenter's impact is relatively modest. In addition to understanding DHNs' vulnerability, our findings offer insights into enhancing seismic resilience. Protecting mainlines between heat sources can reduce topological vulnerability by up to 98.21%, functional vulnerability by up to 70.63%, and economic loss by up to 82.74%.

Suggested Citation

  • Mao, Ding & Wang, Peng & Fang, Yi-Ping & Ni, Long, 2024. "Securing heat-supply against seismic risks: A two-staged framework for assessing vulnerability and economic impacts in district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:369:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924008869
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924008869
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123503?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:369:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924008869. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.