IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v133y2015icp106-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs

Author

Listed:
  • Bellamy, Linda J.
  • Damen, Martin
  • Jan Manuel, Henk
  • Aneziris, Olga N.
  • Papazoglou, Ioannis A.
  • Oh, Joy I.H.

Abstract

The risk of a serious occupational accident per hour exposure was calculated in a project to develop an occupational risk model in the Netherlands (WebORCA). To obtain risk rates, the numbers of victims of serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour inspectorate 1998–Feb 2004 were divided by the number of hours exposure for each of 64 different types of hazards, such as contact with moving parts of machines and falls from various types of height. The exposures to the occupational accident hazards were calculated from a survey of a panel of 30,000 from the Dutch working population. Sixty risk rates were then used to predict serious accidents for activity sectors and jobs in the Netherlands where exposures to the hazards for sectors or jobs could be estimated from the survey. Such predictions have been called “horoscopes†because the idea is to provide a quick look-up of predicted accidents for a particular sector or job. Predictions compared favourably with actual data. It is concluded that predictive data can help provide information about accidents in cases where there is a lack of data, such as for smaller sub groups of the working population.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellamy, Linda J. & Damen, Martin & Jan Manuel, Henk & Aneziris, Olga N. & Papazoglou, Ioannis A. & Oh, Joy I.H., 2015. "Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 106-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:133:y:2015:i:c:p:106-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.09.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832014002221
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2014.09.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Papazoglou, Ioannis A. & Ale, Ben J.M., 2007. "A logical model for quantification of occupational risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(6), pages 785-803.
    2. Bellamy, L.J. & Ale, B.J.M. & Geyer, T.A.W. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Oh, J. & Mud, M. & Bloemhof, A. & Papazoglou, I.A. & Whiston, J.Y., 2007. "Storybuilder—A tool for the analysis of accident reports," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(6), pages 735-744.
    3. Hale, A.R. & Ale, B.J.M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Heijer, T. & Bellamy, L.J & Mud, M.L. & Roelen, A. & Baksteen, H. & Post, J. & Papazoglou, I.A. & Bloemhoff, A. & Oh, J.I.H., 2007. "Modeling accidents for prioritizing prevention," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1701-1715.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    2. Ale, B.J.M. & Bellamy, L.J. & Baksteen, H. & Damen, M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Mud, M. & Oh, J. & Papazoglou, I.A. & Whiston, J.Y., 2008. "Accidents in the construction industry in the Netherlands: An analysis of accident reports using Storybuilder," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(10), pages 1523-1533.
    3. Aneziris, O.N. & Topali, E. & Papazoglou, I.A., 2012. "Occupational risk of building construction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 36-46.
    4. Papazoglou, I.A. & Aneziris, O.N. & Bellamy, L.J. & Ale, B.J.M. & Oh, J., 2017. "Multi-hazard multi-person quantitative occupational risk model and risk management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 310-326.
    5. Andriulo, S. & Gnoni, M.G., 2014. "Measuring the effectiveness of a near-miss management system: An application in an automotive firm supplier," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 154-162.
    6. Carmen Carnero, María & José Pedregal, Diego, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1134-1141.
    7. Pouya Gholizadeh & Behzad Esmaeili, 2020. "Developing a Multi-variate Logistic Regression Model to Analyze Accident Scenarios: Case of Electrical Contractors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Sung-Yong Kang & Seongi Min & Won-Seok Kim & Jeong-Hun Won & Young-Jong Kang & Seungjun Kim, 2022. "Types and Characteristics of Fatal Accidents Caused by Multiple Processes in a Workplace: Based on Actual Cases in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Jeong-Hun Won & Hyeon-Ji Jeong & WonSeok Kim & Seungjun Kim & Sung-Yong Kang & Jong Moon Hwang, 2022. "Mechanisms Analysis for Fatal Accident Types Caused by Multiple Processes in the Workplace: Based on Accident Case in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-23, September.
    10. Papazoglou, I.A. & Aneziris, O.N. & Bellamy, L.J. & Ale, B.J.M. & Oh, J., 2017. "Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 162-173.
    11. Ioannis A. Papazoglou & Olga Aneziris & Linda Bellamy & B. J. M. Ale & Joy I. H. Oh, 2015. "Uncertainty Assessment in the Quantification of Risk Rates of Occupational Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(8), pages 1536-1561, August.
    12. Leveson, Nancy, 2015. "A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 17-34.
    13. Langdalen, Henrik & Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Abrahamsen, HÃ¥kon Bjorheim, 2020. "A New Framework To Idenitfy And Assess Hidden Assumptions In The Background Knowledge Of A Risk Assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Bellamy, Linda J. & Chambon, Monique & van Guldener, Viola, 2018. "Getting resilience into safety programs using simple tools - a research background and practical implementation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 171-184.
    15. Mara Lombardi & Mario Fargnoli & Giuseppe Parise, 2019. "Risk Profiling from the European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) Accidents′ Databases: A Case Study in Construction Sites," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-22, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:133:y:2015:i:c:p:106-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.