IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i13p4852-d380775.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing a Multi-variate Logistic Regression Model to Analyze Accident Scenarios: Case of Electrical Contractors

Author

Listed:
  • Pouya Gholizadeh

    (Sid and Reva Dewberry Department of Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering, Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6C1, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA)

  • Behzad Esmaeili

    (Sid and Reva Dewberry Department of Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering, Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6C1, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA)

Abstract

The ability to identify factors that influence serious injuries and fatalities would help construction firms triage hazardous situations and direct their resources towards more effective interventions. Therefore, this study used odds ratio analysis and logistic regression modeling on historical accident data to investigate the contributing factors impacting occupational accidents among small electrical contracting enterprises. After conducting a thorough content analysis to ensure the reliability of reports, the authors adopted a purposeful variable selection approach to determine the most significant factors that can explain the fatality rates in different scenarios. Thereafter, this study performed an odds ratio analysis among significant factors to determine which factors increase the likelihood of fatality. For example, it was found that having a fatal accident is 4.4 times more likely when the source is a “vehicle” than when it is a “tool, instrument, or equipment”. After validating the consistency of the model, 105 accident scenarios were developed and assessed using the model. The findings revealed which severe accident scenarios happen commonly to people in this trade, with nine scenarios having fatality rates of 50% or more. The highest fatality rates occurred in “fencing, installing lights, signs, etc.” tasks in “alteration and rehabilitation” projects where the source of injury was “parts and materials”. The proposed analysis/modeling approach can be applied among all specialty contracting companies to identify and prioritize more hazardous situations within specific trades. The proposed model-development process also contributes to the body of knowledge around accident analysis by providing a framework for analyzing accident reports through a multivariate logistic regression model.

Suggested Citation

  • Pouya Gholizadeh & Behzad Esmaeili, 2020. "Developing a Multi-variate Logistic Regression Model to Analyze Accident Scenarios: Case of Electrical Contractors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-24, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:13:p:4852-:d:380775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/13/4852/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/13/4852/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. Lesaffre & A. Albert, 1989. "Multiple‐Group Logistic Regression Diagnostics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 38(3), pages 425-440, November.
    2. Michael Behm & Arthur Schneller, 2013. "Application of the Loughborough Construction Accident Causation model: a framework for organizational learning," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 580-595, June.
    3. Barkan, Rachel & Zohar, Dov & Erev, Ido, 1998. "Accidents and Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Four Models," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 118-144, May.
    4. Daniela Dunkler & Max Plischke & Karen Leffondré & Georg Heinze, 2014. "Augmented Backward Elimination: A Pragmatic and Purposeful Way to Develop Statistical Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Bellamy, L.J. & Ale, B.J.M. & Geyer, T.A.W. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Oh, J. & Mud, M. & Bloemhof, A. & Papazoglou, I.A. & Whiston, J.Y., 2007. "Storybuilder—A tool for the analysis of accident reports," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(6), pages 735-744.
    6. Campbell, J.C. & Webster, D. & Koziol-McLain, J. & Block, C. & Campbell, D. & Curry, M.A. & Gary, F. & Glass, N. & McFarlane, J. & Sachs, C. & Sharps, P. & Ulrich, Y. & Wilt, S.A. & Manganello, J. & X, 2003. "Risk Factors for Femicide in Abusive Relationships: Results from a Multisite Case Control Study," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 93(7), pages 1089-1097.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elizabeth Richardson Vigdor & James A. Mercy, 2006. "Do Laws Restricting Access to Firearms by Domestic Violence Offenders Prevent Intimate Partner Homicide?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 30(3), pages 313-346, June.
    2. Constanta Urzeala & Veronica Popescu & Daniel Courteix & Georgeta Mitrache & Mihaela Roco & Silvia Teodorescu, 2021. "Barriers and Facilitators for the Romanian Older Adults in Enjoying Physical Activity Health-Related Benefits," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Gerdes, Madison B, 2023. "Assessing the relationship between gun ownership and fear of mass shootings," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    4. Lynch, Kellie R. & Jackson, Dylan B., 2021. "Firearm exposure and the health of high-risk intimate partner violence victims," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    5. Miron, Julien & Poilane, Benjamin & Cantoni, Eva, 2022. "Robust polytomous logistic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Yikun Su & Shijing Yang & Kangning Liu & Kaicheng Hua & Qi Yao, 2019. "Developing A Case-Based Reasoning Model for Safety Accident Pre-Control and Decision Making in the Construction Industry," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, April.
    7. Barkan, Rachel, 2002. "Using a signal detection safety model to simulate managerial expectations and supervisory feedback," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 1005-1031, November.
    8. Peipei Wang & Yunhan Huang & Jianguo Zhu & Ming Shan, 2022. "Construction Dispute Potentials: Mechanism versus Empiricism in Artificial Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    9. Dan Ariely & Nina Mazar, 2006. "Dishonesty in everyday life and its policy implications," Working Papers 06-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. repec:max:cprpbr:51 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Güneş Koç, 2022. "A Study of Femicide in Turkey From 2010 to 2017," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, August.
    12. Katherine A. Vittes & Susan B. Sorenson, 2006. "Are Temporary Restraining Orders More Likely to Be Issued When Applications Mention Firearms?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 30(3), pages 266-282, June.
    13. Susan B. Sorenson, 2006. "Firearm Use in Intimate Partner Violence," Evaluation Review, , vol. 30(3), pages 229-236, June.
    14. Thomas Garcia & Sébastien Massoni, 2017. "Aiming to choose correctly or to choose wisely ? The optimality-accuracy trade-off in decisions under uncertainty," Working Papers 1714, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    15. Cook, Philip J. & Ludwig, Jens, 2006. "The social costs of gun ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 379-391, January.
    16. Durrance, Christine Piette & Golden, Shelley & Perreira, Krista & Cook, Philip, 2011. "Taxing sin and saving lives: Can alcohol taxation reduce female homicides?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 169-176, July.
    17. Jorge Mori Mojalott, 2020. "Progreso de género, acceso a la justicia y campañas de prevención como determinantes del feminicidio en Perú," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 2(01), pages 50-63.
    18. Kevin Petersen & Robert C. Davis & David Weisburd & Bruce Taylor, 2022. "Effects of second responder programs on repeat incidents of family abuse: An updated systematic review and meta‐analysis," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), March.
    19. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C., 2018. "Living through the Great Chinese Famine: Early-life experiences and managerial decisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 638-657.
    20. Bellamy, Linda J. & Damen, Martin & Jan Manuel, Henk & Aneziris, Olga N. & Papazoglou, Ioannis A. & Oh, Joy I.H., 2015. "Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 106-118.
    21. Nick Feltovich, 2011. "The Effect of Subtracting a Constant from all Payoffs in a Hawk‐Dove Game: Experimental Evidence of Loss Aversion in Strategic Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 814-826, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:13:p:4852-:d:380775. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.