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Modeling accidents for prioritizing prevention

Author

Listed:
  • Hale, A.R.
  • Ale, B.J.M.
  • Goossens, L.H.J.
  • Heijer, T.
  • Bellamy, L.J
  • Mud, M.L.
  • Roelen, A.
  • Baksteen, H.
  • Post, J.
  • Papazoglou, I.A.
  • Bloemhoff, A.
  • Oh, J.I.H.

Abstract

The Workgroup Occupational Risk Model (WORM) project in the Netherlands is developing a comprehensive set of scenarios to cover the full range of occupational accidents. The objective is to support companies in their risk analysis and prioritization of prevention. This paper describes how the modeling has developed through projects in the chemical industry, to this one in general industry and how this is planned to develop further in the future to model risk prevention in air transport. The core modeling technique is based on the bowtie, with addition of more explicit modeling of the barriers needed for risk control, the tasks needed to ensure provision, use, monitoring and maintenance of the barriers, and the management resources and tasks required to ensure that these barrier life cycle tasks are carried out effectively. The modeling is moving from a static notion of barriers which can fail, to seeing risk control dynamically as (fallible) means for staying within a safe envelope. The paper shows how concepts develop slowly over a series of projects as a core team works continuously together. It concludes with some results of the WORM project and some indications of how the modeling is raising fundamental questions about the conceptualization of system safety, which need future resolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Hale, A.R. & Ale, B.J.M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Heijer, T. & Bellamy, L.J & Mud, M.L. & Roelen, A. & Baksteen, H. & Post, J. & Papazoglou, I.A. & Bloemhoff, A. & Oh, J.I.H., 2007. "Modeling accidents for prioritizing prevention," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1701-1715.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:12:p:1701-1715
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.025
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andriulo, S. & Gnoni, M.G., 2014. "Measuring the effectiveness of a near-miss management system: An application in an automotive firm supplier," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 154-162.
    2. Carmen Carnero, María & José Pedregal, Diego, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1134-1141.
    3. Bellamy, Linda J. & Damen, Martin & Jan Manuel, Henk & Aneziris, Olga N. & Papazoglou, Ioannis A. & Oh, Joy I.H., 2015. "Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 106-118.
    4. Leveson, Nancy, 2015. "A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 17-34.

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