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Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew B. Bernard
  • Esther Ann Boler
  • Renzo Massari
  • Jose-Daniel Reyes
  • Daria Taglioni

Abstract

Two identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first-year export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramatically reduces first-year export growth rates, raises initial export levels, and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Bernard & Esther Ann Boler & Renzo Massari & Jose-Daniel Reyes & Daria Taglioni, 2017. "Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3211-3228, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:10:p:3211-28
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141070
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    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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